__________________________________
We are either going to bounce hard here, or we are going to be cast into a pit of molten lava, where blood and bone will be cooked to a fine carbon gristle with extra smoke.

And I’m talking about both the SPY and the PM’s here. Both experienced a Bollinger Band crash (violation of the lower Bollinger) and both should rebound here in the next week, at least to the midpoint. In the case of the Gold Bugs Index ($HUI) that probably means the 200-day EMA.

Here’s the $HUI weekly, which clearly illustrates the return to the October breakout. We break here, and we’ll be headed for that long term support line down in the 500 area first:

Now the daily, with the Bollinger Band illustrations:

Does that look like it’s done to you? Me neither, which tells me if we do get a bounce it’ll likely be later morning tomorrow.

Whatever the case, I believe that unless I see evidence of us getting back over that 200-day EMA (above), I will be bringing my core all the way down to 25%, which will be my bull market low point. You should already be at 50%, give or take, in your PM concentrations. This is simply the next step down in raising cash for the coming wave forward.

I don’t know what it means for the SPY, but I don’t expect there’s much left in that rope either, if the dollar continues to strengthen and the financials and commodities continue to get clipped.

On the brighter side, however, I will note that while things look bleak, copper prices have held up well. Our own miners were hurt by today’s rumor of a Marxist nationalization effort in Peru. Such rumors give me good reason to keep my mining holdings in NAFTA countries alone. We are not being paid to take nation-risk here people. Look to Canada, Nevada and Mexico for your long term core holdings.

Last, I say look to sentiment. The last time Fly and I were this conditionally apocaplyptic, the market took off in a blaze of glory. Hell, even Gary Savage is hiding in Switzerland right now. Be strong for me, my friends.

Comments »

 

__________________
You know in this job, its hard not to become incredibly cynical and even (dare I say it?) “conspiracy minded.”  But when you see some of the actions of the people in power, both at the political and financial levers (Congress/POTUS and the Fed, along with the NY Banking Axis), one wants to cry out in frustration.

It’s a helpless feeling, like being a powerful swimmer encumbered by a straight jacket. Let me tell you this straight — anyone in business, no matter their political distinction, can tell you what makes businesses work and what encumbers them.

What makes businesses work, what makes businesses hire is the ability to plan. It’s a simple as that. Successful people in business are both smart and economically (not necessarily politically) conservative. If they are given a set of parameters to work with, no matter how onerous — they will eventually figure out a way to make money around them.

It’s only when the parameters are largely unknown — thanks to a tidal wave of government interference like we’ve seen in succession with Obamacare and the Dodd-Frank “reforms” recently enacted– that business people are left without the ability to plan for the future, and are thus frozen. Stephen L. Carter wrote a great article about this in Bloomberg recently, you should read it.

So now we are reaping the result of a frozen private sector and a gradually starving public sector (there will be no new government jobs out of the states, either, now that Stimulus is done).  So what’s the answer from Ben & Co?

Destroy the Dollar, one more time. 

This is why I’m still in PM’s despite their hinky motions over the last couple of days.   Maybe we get a dollar bounce at the lows again, I don’t know.   But they are killing it today, and who can blame them? 

What choice have they, under current circumstances?

My best to you all — and please, don’t just give up… Get involved!  You may not like Paul Ryan’s “Path to Prosperity,” but dammit all, at least he’s offering solutions.   

C’mon intelligent people of the world,  we need to put our heads together now, our countr(ies) need us.

Best to you all.
_____________________________

Comments »

 

_______________
There’s malfeasance afoot, I think, and I urge you to take caution.

Gold just dropped precipitously — $25 since this morning– without the dollar turning much at all.   Yesterday afternoon, there was a similar sell down in the silver markets– flash mob style —  even as physical COMEX inventories are reported at five year lows as of late May. (Hat tip to Jesse’s Cafe Americain).

What this tells me is that there are some big players throwing large boulders out there in these markets, trying to scare some people out of positions for various reasons — both optical and monetary.  The Fed has a big incentive to knock down the POG and POS, both as a cat’s paw for their inflationary plans and as a warning to Congress to “raise that debt ceiling or else.”

Moreover, the current physical readings portend that myriad shorts in silver especially could be in deep trouble despite the five-time increase in margin requirement by the COMEX last month.  That means small players could get stomped on in this elephant dance, and I am recommending everyone get to at least 50% cash here.  

If we are really stepping into a D-wave event, this will get us started on getting all the way back to bare core positions (about 25-30%  is where I like to hang personally, but you all need to decide on your own risk levels).  If this is just a head fake, we may have some opportunities to pick off some slower moving miners at deeper discounts.

Be well and be careful.

_______________

Comments »

Again I try to post for the second time this night. I am not making small talk when I say that if I cannot fix whatever prevents me from posting from my house, I will have to forego posting at all. Unlike the M. Le Docteur, I do not have the luxury of posting during the day, and sometimess I don’t even have the time to visit. If I cannot get this thing figured out, I will have to resign my post.

Comments »

 

_______________________

It’s Options Expiration Friday, and there’s all kinds of odd schtuff going on.   Interestingly, I marked up the dollar chart last night, and again could only get the title to “save” to the site.  I don’t know if this is a time of day issue connected to WordPress, or if it’s something going on with my home laptop (which is fine in all other respects), but it’s beginning to wear on me bones.

That said,that glitch allowed me to get some 20/20 hindsite on my review of last night, and that may be helpful to us all.  Note how I was looking for further dollar destruction, at least to the 20-day EMA yesterday evening:

Well, what really happened, then?  Instead of breaking down to the 20-day, the dollar soared (relatively, of course), starting at about 4:30 am (EDT) this morning,  from a break-down below $75.00 all the way to $75.76 at approximately 10:45 am, before burning out like an dynamite-filled white Bronco headed to the sun and dumping 25 basis points in about an hour. 

Was that all for the dollar today?  I’m going to go out on a limb and say yes, and attribute this morning’s chicanery to folks interesting in goosing certain options positions. 

 I say that because the price of gold ($GOLD) made a curiously similar — but opposite! — dump and go at the exact same time that the dollar did.   It dropped over $18 dollars starting at 4:30 this morning as well, from $1504/0z to $1486/oz, just as the dollar made it’s mystery march, only to viciously bounce back over $29 to $1515/oz in little more than an hour and half… 

We currently stand at a nickel over $1513/0z as the dollar tries to work back over $75.50, but my “tell” that the ruse if over lies over in my pile of Jacksonian miner stocks, which continue to strengthen and all show “highs of the day” as of this typing. 

Let’s see if my little prediction above doesn’t come true after all, despite early morning chicanery on the the part of Les Grand Shacqueurs du Monde.

___________________________

Meanwhile, if you want something more exotic than PM’s, I think you may have an opportunity in the Rare Earth Metals today, and particularly in one of my faves, QSURF:

I think this morning’s brief sell-off, which stayed above the 20-day EMA, may offer some entry opportunity for the less risk averse among you.   Best to all.

_________________

Comments »

 

_________________________

Indeud, there is no doubt we stand on the edge of a knife.  Curious formations abound, and give sign.  Take heed…

And then there’s this from today:

And last… the full retrace of the original breakout in the $HUI, Gold Bug Index.  Curiouser and Curiouser:

All the daily charts point to a bounce… not so much this final weekly above, but the circumstances of support could hold here as well.   We have revisited the lows, as I’d feared we should, in order to better stabilize this rebound.   Tomorrow should be interesting.   Be well.

_____________________

Comments »