Four More Years

Tonto
________________________________

If there’s one thing this recent election has taught me, it’s that large money works, and especially so for incumbents. I have to admit, given the Obama Administration’s horrible economic performance ($16T in debt, 26 mm out of work, 47 mm on food stamps), its near-totalitarian interference in markets via regulatory and legislative fiat (EPA coal & oil policies, Obamacare) and the series of scandals so common to the Chicago Machine politics of post-electoral pay-offs (Solyndra), extra-judicial bullying (Fast and Furious) and outright criminal incompetence (Benghazi), I thought there was no way the American people could re-up for more. But I guess enough money was spent, in just enough critical counties, to sufficiently demonize a genuinely nice guy who was trying to play it “nice” (probably to his chagrin) right to the end. Kudos to the players – the pros – like Axelrod and Jarrett. They had a plan and it worked.

Mr. Romney, you will be second guessed to a fare the well, and your lack of even McCain-level support will surely continue to raise questions. Perhaps there were enough Cain Thalers out there who wanted to see the whole system washed out, the Dems hung with it, and the process begun a new. I think you could have been more aggressive in the final weeks, and you took too much from the first debate win. I will not gainsay you, however, as I know your 20 years of unpaid service to your fellow citizens stand as their own testimony.

Unfortunately, reality doesn’t need a vote, and reality is now coming on a fast track. The dismal economic performance we’ve endured these past four years– hoping they would end mercifully this past week– is now slated to continue, barring some sea change in the Obama Directive. Anyone want to bet on the POTUS changing his stripes any time soon? The President’s recent announcement that increased taxes on the employment engine were necessary for his ongoing cooperation with the “Fiscal Cliff” negotiations should be fair warning. Thus far the analysis seems to read that he has learned nothing.

I would take some solace in the possibility of a “Bill Clinton” final four years, if only the Senate had mellowed. It did not, however, and in fact got more radical with the addition of two new far left Senators from the States of Massachusetts and Wisconsin. Bewildering especially was the inclusion of Elizabeth Warren in the Hall of the Hundred Most Powerful. Apparently, after being annealed on the moral forge of vehicular manslaughter, long term race fraud was just a mere bagatelle for the majority of the Bay State’s citizenry. A “Blue State,” for sure.

Given that there will be no Gingrich Congress to arm wrestle the much more ideological Obama to fiscal discipline, I expect nothing but more fiat excess and Executive consolidation. As a result, businesses will continue to be reluctant to invest, capital will “hide,” and more unemployment, crime and municipal stress will result as our debts and long term liabilities continue to skyrocket. None of this will be good for the long term health of the Republic, if in fact a republic we still own. I know even the famed Mr. Franklin (“You have a republic, Madame, if you can keep it!) might harbor his doubts at this gray pass.
________________________________

It’s ironic, I guess, that despite my despondency, I’m still reasonably well situated for this turn of events. Do I own growth stocks like AAPL and DDD? Do I own hot retail like ULTA or CAB? Do I own… (ahhh, you get the picture!). NO! I own a bunch of commodity plays that I am using as a hedge against what I like to call Bernanke’s Despair and you can call “QE (n+1).” We are staring at unfunded liabilities out the wazoo, and entitlement spending alone that outstrips current tax receipts by hundreds of billions of dollars. Bad debt and mispriced assets remain on balance sheets, particularly on those of your resident Too Big To Fail Bank (no Dodd-Frank). There is only one way out of this mess, and it’s the same thing I’ve been preaching to you for the last five years of our journey. PRINTPRINTPRINTPRINTPRINT.

You know the usual suspects, so I won’t belabor them. In particular right now, I like the way ERX looks right now (for those of you asking me about the oil plays in the last comment section). I like it better than UCO, too, fwiw, as it is bouncing right now off its 200 week EMA ($44.72). I don’t think it has many days left to pop. I of course love RGLD below $90. A gift to your grandchildren, as I’ve been telling you since it was in its low $30’s. For the speculators amongst us, keep an eye on TC… I think it’s finally getting it’s mojo back.

The next four years should be interesting… in the way of the ancient Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times.” Unfortunately, I believe China will be the least of our troubles, and soon we will look nostalgically back on the times when all we had to worry about was burrito accounting fraud.

Peace be upon you all.
_____________________

36 Responses to “Four More Years”

  1. The weak blame others while the strong embrace reality and accept responsibility for their own mistakes.

    The signal to the GOP after ’08 was loud and clear: adapt to the new demographics and political niches of the 21st century if you *must* win. They didn’t. Perhaps the GOP didn’t actually believe in their hearts that they must win the election. Twice now they’re been made fools of… hung up on frivolous social agendas, they missed a critical opportunity to reform the platform and enable new groups to join the party.

    Yet, their loss does bear the seed of an equal and opposite success in the latter half of the decade. Will the GOP finally seize this opportunity for growth or will they cling to the same tired ole worn out methods that repeatedly fail to nourish fundamental GOP ideals in the American public?

  2. Epic post, always worth the wait for your insight.

  3. EAT PEAS

  4. What is your target for RGLD ? I’m holding over a year and thinking take profit. Hold forever? Thanks Jake !

  5. Hey JG

    Whats your thesis for RGLD?

    I don’t know a ton about the PM fields, but it seems expensive by any metric. Growth is fantastic, though. Went through some research, and looking to grow even more aggressively and in position to do so, so I get the interest.

    • Expensive, because they are a levered bet on the POG, and most are still ramping production.

      But I like RGLD and SLW because they are royalty plays. No operational risk, save for that of their royalty payors, once removed.

      _________

  6. Cheers turn to tears. The asshats that wanted this need to do some mirror time. Stand in front of it and realize they fucked themselves and the 401k.

  7. For the Republicans to win in the future they’ll need the votes of all the people they hate.

    • The only haters are you divide and conquer Balkanized Dems. Enjoy reaping the whirlwnd…

      ________

      • I have no interest in conquering/ dividing … try again

        • That is the interest of the Democrat Party. They cannot win save by pitting one group against another, the definition of Balkinazation.

          If you voted Democrat, you supported this effort, no matter where your “interests” may lie.

          What comes around goes around, and there will be ill effects resulting from these tactics. I suggest a concealed carry license.

          ________

  8. all i have to say is,anyone under forty better rethink their future.i smell a second civil war brewing among many states that are now seeking succession,(sic). long sds,and waist deep in exk, almost a year strong. axel ass, and vallarie,(everything i touch turns to shit) jarret. thank you for my thesis panning out.

  9. Don’t be upset Jake. At the end of the day, I voted for the president who has put more conservatives in office than Newt Gingrich, Michael Steele, and Grover Norquist combined.

  10. Cain– tell that to the people of Wisconsin and Taxachusetts…

    _____

  11. Jake, what are your thoughts on physical? What levels would you go about accumulating if you were so inclined? Thanks!

    • You should have at least 10% of your portfolio in physical-physical (as in, “in your possession.”) The other 15% should be in PM certs, like GLD, SLV or CEF, if you don’t trust those two.

      _______

  12. Romney whiffed. God intervened with a storm.

    • too bad god didn’t intervene enough. like the last 35 years of welfare recipients “whiffed” out to sea. there,fixed it for ya !!!!!

  13. He certainly works in mysterious ways…

    Enjoy your Obamacare.

    ____

    • lmfao. O’reily has another book to write. i hope it comes out real fucking soon…………………………

  14. Jake,

    High quality now on sell….

    Watching $APA tomorrow……Let
    this bitch drop one more time!

  15. Jake,

    Do you think the election is going to drive more private companies to exit before year end and go public?

    I just finished vetting one company and now we have another two in the pipeline since the start of November. I was curious to see what you’re hearing?

  16. “What we got was a weak moderate candidate handpicked by the beltway elites and the country club establishment wing of the Republican Party. The presidential loss is totally on them,” said Jenny Beth Martin, national coordinator of the Tea Party Patriots.

    • NE Republican Candidates (TM) are surely a dead brand now.

      I actually liked Mitt better than I liked most of ‘em (including Bush Pere and Bob Dole*).

      __________

      *(I still think Norm McDonald’s (SNL) impression of Bob Dole’s was one of the funniest of all time…)

      Dating myself, I know…

      ______

  17. Smart assess.

    White guilt.

    Self loathing.

    Fraudsters of all stripes.

    Oprah zombies.

    Sour grape “I’s”

    The list keeps going..

    Fine post Jake.

    JIG.

    Esp. your 20 year service point re Mr. Romney.

    The 3rd world moved into the States.

    Secession is an appropriate remedy if treason, extradition and immigration laws will not be upheld

Comments are closed.
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36 comments

Four More Years

Tonto
________________________________

If there’s one thing this recent election has taught me, it’s that large money works, and especially so for incumbents. I have to admit, given the Obama Administration’s horrible economic performance ($16T in debt, 26 mm out of work, 47 mm on food stamps), its near-totalitarian interference in markets via regulatory and legislative fiat (EPA coal & oil policies, Obamacare) and the series of scandals so common to the Chicago Machine politics of post-electoral pay-offs (Solyndra), extra-judicial bullying (Fast and Furious) and outright criminal incompetence (Benghazi), I thought there was no way the American people could re-up for more. But I guess enough money was spent, in just enough critical counties, to sufficiently demonize a genuinely nice guy who was trying to play it “nice” (probably to his chagrin) right to the end. Kudos to the players – the pros – like Axelrod and Jarrett. They had a plan and it worked.

Mr. Romney, you will be second guessed to a fare the well, and your lack of even McCain-level support will surely continue to raise questions. Perhaps there were enough Cain Thalers out there who wanted to see the whole system washed out, the Dems hung with it, and the process begun a new. I think you could have been more aggressive in the final weeks, and you took too much from the first debate win. I will not gainsay you, however, as I know your 20 years of unpaid service to your fellow citizens stand as their own testimony.

Unfortunately, reality doesn’t need a vote, and reality is now coming on a fast track. The dismal economic performance we’ve endured these past four years– hoping they would end mercifully this past week– is now slated to continue, barring some sea change in the Obama Directive. Anyone want to bet on the POTUS changing his stripes any time soon? The President’s recent announcement that increased taxes on the employment engine were necessary for his ongoing cooperation with the “Fiscal Cliff” negotiations should be fair warning. Thus far the analysis seems to read that he has learned nothing.

I would take some solace in the possibility of a “Bill Clinton” final four years, if only the Senate had mellowed. It did not, however, and in fact got more radical with the addition of two new far left Senators from the States of Massachusetts and Wisconsin. Bewildering especially was the inclusion of Elizabeth Warren in the Hall of the Hundred Most Powerful. Apparently, after being annealed on the moral forge of vehicular manslaughter, long term race fraud was just a mere bagatelle for the majority of the Bay State’s citizenry. A “Blue State,” for sure.

Given that there will be no Gingrich Congress to arm wrestle the much more ideological Obama to fiscal discipline, I expect nothing but more fiat excess and Executive consolidation. As a result, businesses will continue to be reluctant to invest, capital will “hide,” and more unemployment, crime and municipal stress will result as our debts and long term liabilities continue to skyrocket. None of this will be good for the long term health of the Republic, if in fact a republic we still own. I know even the famed Mr. Franklin (“You have a republic, Madame, if you can keep it!) might harbor his doubts at this gray pass.
________________________________

It’s ironic, I guess, that despite my despondency, I’m still reasonably well situated for this turn of events. Do I own growth stocks like AAPL and DDD? Do I own hot retail like ULTA or CAB? Do I own… (ahhh, you get the picture!). NO! I own a bunch of commodity plays that I am using as a hedge against what I like to call Bernanke’s Despair and you can call “QE (n+1).” We are staring at unfunded liabilities out the wazoo, and entitlement spending alone that outstrips current tax receipts by hundreds of billions of dollars. Bad debt and mispriced assets remain on balance sheets, particularly on those of your resident Too Big To Fail Bank (no Dodd-Frank). There is only one way out of this mess, and it’s the same thing I’ve been preaching to you for the last five years of our journey. PRINTPRINTPRINTPRINTPRINT.

You know the usual suspects, so I won’t belabor them. In particular right now, I like the way ERX looks right now (for those of you asking me about the oil plays in the last comment section). I like it better than UCO, too, fwiw, as it is bouncing right now off its 200 week EMA ($44.72). I don’t think it has many days left to pop. I of course love RGLD below $90. A gift to your grandchildren, as I’ve been telling you since it was in its low $30’s. For the speculators amongst us, keep an eye on TC… I think it’s finally getting it’s mojo back.

The next four years should be interesting… in the way of the ancient Chinese curse “May you live in interesting times.” Unfortunately, I believe China will be the least of our troubles, and soon we will look nostalgically back on the times when all we had to worry about was burrito accounting fraud.

Peace be upon you all.
_____________________

36 Responses to “Four More Years”

  1. The weak blame others while the strong embrace reality and accept responsibility for their own mistakes.

    The signal to the GOP after ’08 was loud and clear: adapt to the new demographics and political niches of the 21st century if you *must* win. They didn’t. Perhaps the GOP didn’t actually believe in their hearts that they must win the election. Twice now they’re been made fools of… hung up on frivolous social agendas, they missed a critical opportunity to reform the platform and enable new groups to join the party.

    Yet, their loss does bear the seed of an equal and opposite success in the latter half of the decade. Will the GOP finally seize this opportunity for growth or will they cling to the same tired ole worn out methods that repeatedly fail to nourish fundamental GOP ideals in the American public?

  2. Epic post, always worth the wait for your insight.

  3. EAT PEAS

  4. What is your target for RGLD ? I’m holding over a year and thinking take profit. Hold forever? Thanks Jake !

  5. Hey JG

    Whats your thesis for RGLD?

    I don’t know a ton about the PM fields, but it seems expensive by any metric. Growth is fantastic, though. Went through some research, and looking to grow even more aggressively and in position to do so, so I get the interest.

    • Expensive, because they are a levered bet on the POG, and most are still ramping production.

      But I like RGLD and SLW because they are royalty plays. No operational risk, save for that of their royalty payors, once removed.

      _________

  6. Cheers turn to tears. The asshats that wanted this need to do some mirror time. Stand in front of it and realize they fucked themselves and the 401k.

  7. For the Republicans to win in the future they’ll need the votes of all the people they hate.

    • The only haters are you divide and conquer Balkanized Dems. Enjoy reaping the whirlwnd…

      ________

      • I have no interest in conquering/ dividing … try again

        • That is the interest of the Democrat Party. They cannot win save by pitting one group against another, the definition of Balkinazation.

          If you voted Democrat, you supported this effort, no matter where your “interests” may lie.

          What comes around goes around, and there will be ill effects resulting from these tactics. I suggest a concealed carry license.

          ________

  8. all i have to say is,anyone under forty better rethink their future.i smell a second civil war brewing among many states that are now seeking succession,(sic). long sds,and waist deep in exk, almost a year strong. axel ass, and vallarie,(everything i touch turns to shit) jarret. thank you for my thesis panning out.

  9. Don’t be upset Jake. At the end of the day, I voted for the president who has put more conservatives in office than Newt Gingrich, Michael Steele, and Grover Norquist combined.

  10. Cain– tell that to the people of Wisconsin and Taxachusetts…

    _____

  11. Jake, what are your thoughts on physical? What levels would you go about accumulating if you were so inclined? Thanks!

    • You should have at least 10% of your portfolio in physical-physical (as in, “in your possession.”) The other 15% should be in PM certs, like GLD, SLV or CEF, if you don’t trust those two.

      _______

  12. Romney whiffed. God intervened with a storm.

    • too bad god didn’t intervene enough. like the last 35 years of welfare recipients “whiffed” out to sea. there,fixed it for ya !!!!!

  13. He certainly works in mysterious ways…

    Enjoy your Obamacare.

    ____

    • lmfao. O’reily has another book to write. i hope it comes out real fucking soon…………………………

  14. Jake,

    High quality now on sell….

    Watching $APA tomorrow……Let
    this bitch drop one more time!

  15. Jake,

    Do you think the election is going to drive more private companies to exit before year end and go public?

    I just finished vetting one company and now we have another two in the pipeline since the start of November. I was curious to see what you’re hearing?

  16. “What we got was a weak moderate candidate handpicked by the beltway elites and the country club establishment wing of the Republican Party. The presidential loss is totally on them,” said Jenny Beth Martin, national coordinator of the Tea Party Patriots.

    • NE Republican Candidates (TM) are surely a dead brand now.

      I actually liked Mitt better than I liked most of ‘em (including Bush Pere and Bob Dole*).

      __________

      *(I still think Norm McDonald’s (SNL) impression of Bob Dole’s was one of the funniest of all time…)

      Dating myself, I know…

      ______

  17. Smart assess.

    White guilt.

    Self loathing.

    Fraudsters of all stripes.

    Oprah zombies.

    Sour grape “I’s”

    The list keeps going..

    Fine post Jake.

    JIG.

    Esp. your 20 year service point re Mr. Romney.

    The 3rd world moved into the States.

    Secession is an appropriate remedy if treason, extradition and immigration laws will not be upheld

Comments are closed.