Again I try to post for the second time this night. I am not making small talk when I say that if I cannot fix whatever prevents me from posting from my house, I will have to forego posting at all. Unlike the M. Le Docteur, I do not have the luxury of posting during the day, and sometimess I don’t even have the time to visit. If I cannot get this thing figured out, I will have to resign my post.

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It’s Options Expiration Friday, and there’s all kinds of odd schtuff going on.   Interestingly, I marked up the dollar chart last night, and again could only get the title to “save” to the site.  I don’t know if this is a time of day issue connected to WordPress, or if it’s something going on with my home laptop (which is fine in all other respects), but it’s beginning to wear on me bones.

That said,that glitch allowed me to get some 20/20 hindsite on my review of last night, and that may be helpful to us all.  Note how I was looking for further dollar destruction, at least to the 20-day EMA yesterday evening:

Well, what really happened, then?  Instead of breaking down to the 20-day, the dollar soared (relatively, of course), starting at about 4:30 am (EDT) this morning,  from a break-down below $75.00 all the way to $75.76 at approximately 10:45 am, before burning out like an dynamite-filled white Bronco headed to the sun and dumping 25 basis points in about an hour. 

Was that all for the dollar today?  I’m going to go out on a limb and say yes, and attribute this morning’s chicanery to folks interesting in goosing certain options positions. 

 I say that because the price of gold ($GOLD) made a curiously similar — but opposite! — dump and go at the exact same time that the dollar did.   It dropped over $18 dollars starting at 4:30 this morning as well, from $1504/0z to $1486/oz, just as the dollar made it’s mystery march, only to viciously bounce back over $29 to $1515/oz in little more than an hour and half… 

We currently stand at a nickel over $1513/0z as the dollar tries to work back over $75.50, but my “tell” that the ruse if over lies over in my pile of Jacksonian miner stocks, which continue to strengthen and all show “highs of the day” as of this typing. 

Let’s see if my little prediction above doesn’t come true after all, despite early morning chicanery on the the part of Les Grand Shacqueurs du Monde.

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Meanwhile, if you want something more exotic than PM’s, I think you may have an opportunity in the Rare Earth Metals today, and particularly in one of my faves, QSURF:

I think this morning’s brief sell-off, which stayed above the 20-day EMA, may offer some entry opportunity for the less risk averse among you.   Best to all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLJ8ILIE780 450 300]

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No time to indulge the chicken livers now, lads!

That’s right, buck up, stiff upper crumpets and all that.  Cheerio, wot?  Seriously, silver has broken back over $39 this evening, and if that number holds, I think we see further retrace into next week. Gold is also doing quite nicely at over $1520.

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Tomorrow’s top choices… XG and BAA.

Sure, they are obscure, but so was Jude, and look at that great song the Beatles wrote about him.

Also, the rare earth metals are being purchased again.  Yesterday MCP was getting big “buying on weakness” attention.  I like AVL and QSURF here — especially the latter.

Best to you.

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Some prefer to chart the mathematical spreads between petroleum jelly and its tasty chemical equal, petroleum margarine (I can’t believe it’s not butter!), all the while poking a charred oak barrel stave into the entrails of a freshly killed hedge mole for further signs of rain or drought.

Me? I’m a man of simpler methodologies and observations. And over the last ten years, there’s rarely been a more able indicator than the following monthly view of this pathetic store of national goods and services:

Note that we’ve recently breached one near term support.  I don’t expect the dollar will be done keening into the night until we reach that second basing area, well below $71.00.

Luckily for us, that means we can still make some lemonade and Jack out of these lemons and white corn.  Despite the opprobrius doomsaying of the terminal top pickers, I’m coming across a number of charts that do NOT look like the now-cliched blowoff top we’re all expecting in the physical commodities, and specifically, the precious metals.   In this case, the miners have become “the tell” after lagging the physical commodities for some weeks now.

Take for example one of my finest stalwart Jacksonians, ANV.  Remember this set-up chart from mere days ago?

Pretty measured flag and pop formation right?   Now look again, mere days later… Does this methodical ascent give you pause to believe we’re pricing ourselvs to oblivion here?  Not me:

I get the same frisson from a number of other names that have pulled back and consolidated while the commodity metals themselves have gone somewhat bonkers.   As a result, these babies have room to roll for at least another goodly ascent to the stratos.  Consider AAU, which I’ve accumulated quite a bit of in these last weeks.  Recall this weekly chart from just before Valentine’s Day?

Now look at what has taken place just these last two days:

Does that chart scream out “exhaustion” to you?  Me neither.    

Last, let’s not forget some metals which aren’t so much “precious” as they are scarce.   Because of that concern, we can see moves and profitability in names like REE and AVL like we’ve seen with some of our precious names.   My favorite of the moment continues to be QSURF, which broke to new highs today like it was hocking silver on the side:

Go get ’em, tigers.  

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