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I think some of the calls for gold’s downfall I’ve been seeing coming out of the Deflationista Community may be a mite premature. As a matter of fact, I don’t think we’re seeing anything here more than a sharp pullback from an extended four week move. Given that the move was a breakout, however, I think we’re headed for continued gains after it’s been consolidated.
First, the weekly gold chart shows where we we’ve come since the breakout from the larger consolidation in October of 2009:
What we’ve been seeing for the majority of 2010 has been a consolidation of that late 2009 breakout… until we just recently (over the last four weeks) began to break out of that consolidation as well. This last week was merely pullback from that break as well. Note the daily:
Now we are oversold even from that brief pullback. This is not to say there won’t be additional consolidation, but only that we should not confuse the ill health of the overall cyclical stock market bull with the far better condition of the continuing secular bull in gold.
Enjoy the day, I shall be about, but busy.
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Too funny. Not two minutes after I posted this, gold started ripping.
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Not funny at all…SMART.
Mr. Gint I just finished Nouriel Roubini’s new book, I highly advise you to place it on your Super Gints Must Read List…. (which of course will take it to number 1 on the New York Times best sellers list)
Just this morning The V.King did 35lbs curls for a set of get this….85 reps…no joke…why? Because he can.
The V.King …….coming soon V.King Tee Shirts
35 lb’ers on each arm?
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of course…c’mon
35lbs dumbells…geez
I do 45lbs., 3 sets of 15.
Mr. Bollox
Thanks…That’s good to know. I do that set on the preacher bench (45lbs 3sets 15X’s) The V.Kings usual set is 50lbs for 8-12 …then drop down to 35lbs for failure…Today’s failure was 85 reps…get it?
V.King til the break of dawn…
you da man!
No I am The V.King…..
I’m gonna short your bi-ceps. I think you’re peaking.
COYWFL
If you look on the weekly chart you posted back in 2007 you see a weekly bearish engulfing pattern that so far matches last week’s move. If the subsequent weeks hold that we will see a consolidation followed by a rip. Gold rocketed after that 2007 period of consolidation.
Since the financial crisis everyone wants to play “spot the bubble”.
Sorry, to be clear, you are talking about the (not shown) left side of the above weekly chart, not something I posted back in 2007, right?
If so, I agree. I was actually thinking about posting a longer term view, but then you lose the visual on the recent past couple of week’s action.
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Yes, I am looking at the late Aug 2007 period and the mid-Nov 2007 period on the weekly chart in this post. Typically I don’t like big red candles especially when they are close to being bearish engulfing but I find many times they don’t portend drops but just consolidations. Looking back on gold’s weekly I can see two periods (at least) that started in a similar manner to last week and were mere consolidations before substantially higher prices.
Couple of quick things…..for Gint
1. Why is Obama using a Connecticut social security #er?
2. Why did I just BUY 5,000 IOC?
Connecticut has SSN’s?
yep…so again would you please explain why that doesn’t piss you and the other girls on The View off?
It’s enough to know you are watching.
First three digits of your ss# illustrate where # was issued.
“May the rain never flood your crops but always be sweet and pure for your tea.”
For the record, hot tea is for old ladies and little kids with tummy aches.
I do however, like me some cold tea, on occasion.
The Vking likes nothing better, than ‘tea with Mrs. McGill’.
Yes …Mrs. McGill
Hey Jake what is the longest thread on your blog so far?
You mean messages? I’ve had a couple go well over 100, depending on how much topical interest there is (i.e., politics, horse racing, football, etc).
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Yes ….messages/thread 100 you say….
I think GLD up $1.63 is worth 100 messages at least…and Obama using a fake SS# got to be worth at least a dozen or so…By the way what are your thoughts on these 2 subjects…as well as 35lbs curls to 85reps….
You think Obama has a fake SS#? How is it he disclosed that, btw? Is he a new Lifeline ad spokesman?
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One of the many lawsuits against Obama’s presidential eligibility.
Investigators believe Obama needs to explain why he is using a Social Security number reserved for Connecticut applicants that was issued at a date later than he is known to have held employment.
Copies of affidavits filed separately in a presidential eligibility lawsuit in the U.S. District Court of the District of Columbia by Ohio licensed private investigator Susan Daniels and Colorado private investigator John N. Sampson.
Peace man. Forgot pinky ring.
All the gold on Earth came from outer space. So did everything else on Earth. All the gold on Earth came from the middle of a star. So what is the point of that?
Usually, my header graphics are considered part of the “humour” (sic) section of the piece.
One has to have a discernible sense of humour, however.
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O.K. (sic) humour it is!
You realize that’s an actual eye-witness depiction of The Fly (Space Alien Magician) yes?
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The V.King just Bought 5,000 more IOC….
Bought 5000 more
What’s your rationality for the IOC buys?
Alcoholism….
Bench presses and Jim Beam huh?
Knife catching in the OIH might pay off eventually but why buy now?
I’m down to a 5% exposure(of the remaining stock) in the trading account and it’s really too much
It used to be my favorite sector(shows you how much I’ve sold in the last 2 weeks)
Gold is up to 12%
Did anyone take a gander at the buying on weakness numbers today?
Wells Fargo, the SPY’s and IWM were numbers #1, #2 and 3 today, with a combined block trade (ie, big guys) inflow of almost $420 mm.
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Jake, if the broader market turns bear (which is looking more and more likely now), won’t the miners be taken down as well? Or, do you think they’ll hold up relativelybetter? Truly a disappointing close today after how well we’d looked earlier on. I’m trying to figure things out here and thinking I’m going around in circles chasing my own tail LOL!
Miners may get taken down in a downdraft, like all asset classes, but they will always pay you for holding (unlike the rest of the cyclical bull).
Example… at the depth of the 2008 mess, SLW broke well under $3 –. Today it’s comfortably sextupled that level. That means even if we get cut in half, we’re still up over 300%.
How many stocks have done that?
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“We’re” …. who else on this blog is holding from $3?
A 50% fib retracement will be WMD to most readers accounts I suspect unless using a tight stop cause anything too loose will be nuked via trading robots.
Not a very reassuring comment Jake (???)
Yes, a 2008 black hole type market would panic everyone but the most diehard investors
Unless you would add if your stock caved 75%, just stick to your stops.
For me the canadian banks are about the only thing I will hold through that.
Man up, pussy.
😉
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You gotta remember why you are buying it in the first place, and that mining stocks are very volatile.
I bought so much gold and silver mining/ETF stocks before the market crashed, I was down like 80% afterwards and then I was too scared to buy when SLW was $3.00. But the stocks I held all came back, and with a pretty good profit.
This time I am trying to keep a certain amount of cash at all times, just in case another opportunity like that comes along.
I learned my lesson the hard way, but I can still remember Jake posting that he or his brother or someone was scarfing up SLW way down there. This time it is going to be me, if it happens again.
“We’re” …. who else on this blog is holding from $3?
me (between $3 & $4).
That’s ONE …..
test 123
This is interesting, but I don’t know why it is part of the financial overhaul bill –
CONFLICT MINERALS
Senate financial bill mandates SEC reporting of DRC-mined minerals
An amendment in the U.S. Senate financial overhaul bill requires U.S.-registered companies to report to the SEC their supply chain of minerals mined in armed conflict African nations, such as the DRC.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Monday , 24 May 2010
Full story:
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page72068?oid=105279&sn=Detail&pid=92730
Some of the newsletters I get are urging U.S. citizens to get part of their money out of the U.S. while they still can. I don’t have very much money, so I am not that worried about it for us, but if we did have a lot, I think I would start to heed that advice.
One of the outfits has even been giving seminars on how to do it, what countries are good countries to buy homes/property in, how much gold coins/money you can get through customs at a time, etc.
New Zealand is supposed to be very beautiful and very low on crime. I have a girlfriend there, actually.
I love this country, it is my home and I am a citizen, but it is getting kind of worrisome. Maybe it’s all the alarmist stuff I keep reading.
Chanci –
1. Stop reading that stuff.
2. Chill out.
3. Watch the dollar. That’s how the rest of the world is voting.
4. It’s still the the best place in the world.
Thanks, Yogi.
I think I am going to stop reading everything and just have a good summer – reading novels, going to the beach, and hanging out with the family. Got to break my addiction to IBC to be able to break my addictions to the financial newsletters, at least for a few months, and that sucks. I’m an all or nothing type girl, moderation doesn’t seem to be in my makeup.
Hope you and your son have a GREAT summer, and best of luck trading.
The bloggers and posters here are the best!