The word from down here in the midst of my cold, damp and mutton-bone strewn hole is “chastened.”
I’m just going to leave up yesterday’s boast — with it’s eyebrow-arching results red with glory –as a lesson to me about hubris in the face of Mother Market.
She holds a ruler, you know, and it’s forged from annealed titanium.
I’ve got the scars to prove it.
That said, I’m happy that some of my correspondents got to participate in some of this fear trade today with the added bonus of a fat discount from yesterday’s prices. I’m thinking specifically of IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] and Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] , [[CDE]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] which were all bludgeoned yesterday and which I believe have now become nice opportunities here, especially on the bounce trade that will come in at some point tomorrow morning.
So wait til the afternoon, or a sell-off in the dollar, whichever comes first.
Enjoy these key bargains, whilst I gnaw (with satisfaction) on one of these stringy gristle-bones with which my carbuncle-encrusted gaolers (sic) have pelted me.
I am ever so grateful.
Slange* (sic).
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*(Do not be fooled, it’s an Irish oubliette)
Add PAAS to the above list of “Armegeddon trades” that will likely turn at some point today.
Everything ridiculously oversold… I may even get a couple of SPY calls just for the bounce.
Don’t go crazy, though.
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Bot 20 December $98 strike SPY calls @$7.40.
Trying out the famous Gary Savage Bollinger Band Crash Trade.
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Nice recovery for many of those. I own SSRI and shat in my pants when I saw it open -5%. Just about even now. (Looks like it touched the rising trend line and bounce off it..)
I like Gary’s BB Crash trade. It looks like has decent odds…His update last night had some really good points. We seem to have bounced off that 50 DMA for now.
Rock
Chalk.
Jayhawk.
I’m digging the Blade Runner avatar too… prolly Hauer’s best movie.
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You know it baby. We should go into our home game vs. OU 6-0. Our first real test and should be interesting to see how we do. On the hoops side, well we are loaded and will be number 1. Whether or not we can put it all together in March is the question as always. We’ve been loaded before and couldn’t close the deal when it counted.
I like your LT one too, although as a Bears fan we hated his guts back in the day. I’ll never forget that playoff game in 86 when it was -20 and Shawn Landetta wiffed that punt. Good times for us! I lived in NJ later in life and grew to like the Giants and always root for them if the Bears are out of it.
I remember that Landetta whiff like it was yesterday.
Some people have the Kennedy assassination… well, I remember exactly where I was and what I was doing when Landetta missed that punt.
Wasn’t the final score 21-0, or something egregious like that? And then you went on to win the Superbowl and coin the egregious “Superbowl Shuffle” video.
We, of course, came back to win the Bowl the following year, so not so bad.
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The funny thing was they did that video 6 games into the season that year. They were so dominant and cocky that they knew they would win it all. The most amazing defense I have ever seen. (Buddy Ryan’s 46 D). Yes, 21-0 over you guys, 28-0 over the Rams, 46-10 over the Pats in the Super Bowl. They were just playing around that year. DItka had the Fridge rolling out, faking a pass in the first half of the Super Bowl when Bears were on the goal line. It’s a shame Walter didn’t have a good game. RIP. He was my favorite of all time.
Walter was a good man, that’s for sure.
Did the Fridge die too?
Good to see the ole mean-eyed middle linebacker finally get a team of his own.
One last — funniest commercial on tv right now (or at least “football tv,” which is all I watch)is the one where the two man office hires Dick Butkus to give a speech.
“Sorry Dick Butkus” — lol.
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Bot 20 December $16 Strike SSRI calls @ $4.50.
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Hope you all are taking advantage of the dollar taking it in the shorts.
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I know you don’t want to hear this, but I’d love nothing more than to see silver cut back through $15. I’ve freed up some space and credit and would love to fill the gap.
I’d be astounded if it broke $16 for more than a wasp’s breath. In fact, I don’t think it will do that unless gold gets pummelled under $965.
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Looks like TBT is rising from the dead, too… finally.
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Picked up more ELD.TO now 60% of the lot I sold at 11.80 lol but near the same cost average.
As the bounce was short lived at best, what you thinking here Jake, better deals ahead?
My magic eight ball says “cloudy with a chance of meatballs.”
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HUI not holding 400 is a bit concerning. Next line in the sand looks to be the 50DMA at 381 and then the rising trendline at 366ish. I know you don’t like the MACD as much, but this looks on par with the earlier sell off when we touched the bottom of the rising channel.
http://tiny.cc/4Cx1H
Your thing is not showing up, but I see the rising uptrend coinciding almost exaclty with the 61.8% retrace line (ie, support) at about 378.5 or so.
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Jake! are you still holding cvm?
I am, even as it nettles me something awful. Luckily my position size is not ridiculous.
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Jake,
Theory: If being a ‘bear’ means shorting or buying positions in hopes the stock prices goes down but the Feds (aka the taxpayers) keep printing money to ensure the market stays up to an extent…
Conclusion: Then isn’t being a Bear in this junction of time really just a person who’s betting against themselves? Assuming they pay taxes of course.
If the market tanks, not only does Main St. lose but even those who short and are winners, who paid taxes, would have tossed away billions in tax dollars for the stimulus plans and bailouts.
Seems to me the recent up-rising of Perma-Bears, truly do hate America. Why would you want to be right so bad as to wish ill on everybody involved. I find that some would rather be “I told you so!” to get the kudos while watching their own country implode just to be right.
if the market tanks.. so many more people will not only be laid off but their measly 401k plans will be less than worthless.
I get shorting stocks when they are overvalued or have major issues on the books but these guys aren’t just shorting a stock.. they want to become millionaires and make coin when the entire market tanks. To me, that’s just outright odd to want your own country’s value and economy, market valuation to eat shit just to prove a point.
Why would anybody root for that? If you do, please let my agency know so we can get you a 1-way ticket to Iran where you can hate America in style.
Not so sure it’s a “Hate America” thing for most bears, as many– if not most– of the folks on Tim’s blog seem to be relatively patriotic (even Timmah in his own way).
No, the problem, rather is lack of humility, overt narcissism and a contempt, in a lot of cases, for their fellow human beings.
More misanthropy, I guess, than anything else.
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I agree with Jake, this has nothing to do with patriotism. More over, I think it is all about Newtons’s Law:
”To every action there is always an equal and opposite reaction: or the forces of two bodies on each other are always equal and are directed in opposite directions”.
I would have to agree that this also pertains to price. Those who bought stocks to bring them to the prices they are at, are also allowed to sell them for the same amount of profit. Supply and demand comes to mind. Some people were willing to pay $399 for an Xbox, today you can get it for $299……..
Uh, what does this have to do with Newtons law though? Perhaps the inclusion of a metaphor or example will clarify the allusion for me.
Stock Picking Chicken, it really isn’t a bet against yourself, since the majority of the money being spent hasn’t been paid for with taxes or the reduction of spending.
IVN, RGLD, the “Silvers” and even BZH and C are looking good this morning.
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Nice turnaround in the dollar there.
BZH taking off…
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If you could be so kind, how do you feel about Monsantos earnings this quarter
I expect they will be sufficiently dismal to match the warnings that have been appended to them this quarter from various sources.
That said, I buy MON for the long term value, not as a trading vehicle. This is a “grandkids’ stock” and you should take any and all opportunities to accumulate when possible. I’m not sure that earnings will crash the stock, however, as much of the crappy news is out.
This last bit if from the end of a friend of mine’s company’s review of MON’s business (Sterne Agee & Leach):
While investors have been skittish about attaching too high a multiple to the seed business at a time when overall company-earnings growth has turned negative, we view seed as a highly sustainable growth business. Indeed, despite the setbacks for ag inputs, there has been virtually no change in the trajectory of agricultural investment and policy-reform globally — lower grain prices have not discouraged governments from their efforts to increase ag profitability and to create incentives for farmers to invest in their businesses, even if credit has slowed the dollar inflows. As we see it, the politics of food-price inflation remain front-and-center for most government policy makers, and that makes Monsanto’s pipeline of new products tremendously valuable.
True, with corn prices lower, the value of that pipeline is potentially lower, but with no decline in the push for ag productivity, we expect high-value seed to capture an increasing share of farmers’ budgets over the next several years, relative to other ag inputs.
We are taking our price target down to $100 (from $110) to reflect the slower near-term profit outlook, but we expect this new guidance to provide a “floor” for earnings for investors to work with. Investors have been looking for some clarity on 2010, and the weak ag-input market and late corn season has made it difficult to find that clarity. While disappointing, this new guidance should help investors recalibrate.
We rate Monsanto at “Buy.”
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Jake,
What do you watch to know whether to add or lighten up on your positions. It’s looking like I’ll do good today with PMPIX ( basically abx, fcx, nem, and au-rwi).
I should get about about 2.5% now, if I close out at the end of today.
So question is would you be holding longer than today, lighten up, or add to? How do you make these kind of decisions?
Thanks!
I’m more of a long term holder of most of these positions, as I’ve stated. I think we’ve got a good 12 to 18 months left in this gold bull and maybe even more depending on what they do to the currency in the meantime.
That’s my first “look” therefore, at DXY and UUP to see what’s going on w. the dollar.
I also look at important fibonacci levels, like 2 year fib charts and the 38.2 and 61.8% retracement levels on moves in those time periods.
For instance, SLW’s 61.8% fib retrace was in the low 13’s and I called that I would be selling my calls at that level, which proved to be prescient.
On the Jacksons however, I won’t do much more than sell calls on overbought positions, and on the juniors I might trim some exposure, like I did w. ANV back in June.
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Jake-
Just read this guy’s analysis (I have no idea who he is) and it looks to me he’s using EW on gold and the miners. Thinks we will correct back down to a longer term trend line (700ish on gold, 150 on HUI). Please tell me this guy is full of it.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13767.html
EW was actually made up by L. Ron Hubbard to fool low-IQ people with no direction in life, much like Dianetics crossed up John Travolta.
Disregard that tomfoolery and read my much anticipated new post.
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