Trade: Sold longs AMED +14%, FUQI +12%, SPWRA -3%

Completely sold longs:

AMED 44.73  ( +14.25% bought at 39.15.  Reason for buying the Medical dip. )

FUQI 24.67  ( +11.73% bought at 22.08 .  Reason for buying this sexy breakout stock. )

SPWRA 32.27 ( -3.3% bought at 33.34.  Reason for buying solar.)

I made all these trades this week.  That’s get in, get out, get money.  This week was all about playing the light volume rallies against the bears.  I got a nice pop in my bullish sector stocks FUQI (china) and AMED (medical).  This puts my exposure heavier on the short side.

I dumped SPWRA after seeing what happened to solars earlier today.  I expected a quick follow-through heading into the weekend, but didn’t get it.

My intention is trade lightly for another month because I just don’t like this market.  So, I’m hoping to use July’s closed trades to explain a little more about my swing trading style.  So I’ll probably be doing more “why I entered here, why I exited here, why I was smart, why I was stupid” kind of analysis in my next few posts.  Hopefully you can learn something, if not, well, go eat a burrito.  I have no idea what that means.

New longs:  SPWRA (33.34)

Added to longs:  AVII (2.38)

– Zeus?  Lol.  It was random.  Sorry!

– Looks like I’m heading back to 50/50 long short.  I have a mental note to take quick profits in longs.  I think Fly’s target on the Dow is a good spot to sell stocks.  There’s no telling how strong the buying will continue.  I think we could rally the close.  I’m still not covering my current shorts.

–  Watchlist for possible buys (high priority):  Herbalife (HLF), Caribou Coffee (CBOU), CRME

–  Almost shorted NFLX and MELI today.  Held back.

–  Gotta finish some 2nd quarter paperwork.  I hate end of months.

Question:  you net long or short or mostly cash?

Are you ready for swine-flu play part 2?  Well, you’re kind of late.  Lol.  It’s been back in play for the past couple days with news of it back in the media again.  BUT then again, it’s good to be late because many flu stocks have retraced a little for us to get better prices.  Woo hoo!  So try to swing long if you can, or you can daytrade the intraday rallies.  I’ve ran a few quick screens on The PPT to come up with some bio/medical/health stocks that are picking up momentum, and which I expect will be great “trader-stocks.”

Revenge of the pigs.  Something like 40% of America can be infected if we’re not careful.  Right now I only have one flu play, AVII which trades closely to NVAX story-stock developments.  I never meant it to be a flu play, just a medical momo play.  AVII had a huge day today giving us a new 52-high.

I ran a screen on The PPT to find some medical stocks in play.  I searched for highest PPT scores on daily and weekly then put them into Yahoo Finance to show you their price movements:

PPT Top Hybrid Change DAILY on Medical Industry:  CRME, POZN, VRX, GENT, VRUS, PTIE, ISIS, ARQL, ALXN, TELK

PPT Top Hybrid Change WEEKLY on Medical Industry: ALXN, ISPH, ARQL, GERN, AVII, VRUS, NEXM, CBST, MAPP, RDY

Just remember though, these stocks are extremely volatile.  If you swing trade them, expect big moves up and down.  So I strongly suggest starting small and do some step-up investing.  Big winners here if you keep your eyes open and your finger trigger happy.  If you’re in the business of story-stocks, then you might want to track the Swine-Flu index.  http://www.tickerspy.com/index/Swine-Flu-and-Bird-Flu-Stocks?refer=2130Y1

It looks like this…

So, hopefully this is good enough to get you going on your own research into this story-stock play.   I’ll give you one more piece of advice:  any serious news about swine-flu or any other flu will hurt the airline industry.  You will notice the airline stocks will fall hard for about a week (UAUA, CAL, DAL, ZNH etc).  Short the first few days of the week, but flip the trade and buy the dip after time passes.  These are panic plays and they tend to trade beyond “equilibrium,” so take advantage of the imbalance. Somewhere in the middle of the trade you will be both long and short airline stocks, while phasing out of biotech plays.  If I confused you then I did my job.

Tweet up @zMoose12 if you want your stock pimped out (aka technical analysis).

New longs: STAR (22.82), FUQI (22.08) @ 1/3 position, AMED (39.15)

New shorts: TNH (104.70), SLW (8.90)

I also have X as a daytrade short (looking for .50 cents); and trying to get shorts in ZNH.

–  Buying the dip on FUQI; I have a strong feeling it will go down more, so don’t follow me here.  Notice I’m only at a small position.

–  watching SOHU which is up 5% and STP which is down -9% giving me mixed feelings on China.   ZNH is at 18 which is a screaming short.  If you can get it, get it!!

–  Target for TNH is 98, so I’m going for a quick 5-6 points here.

– Buy medical breakouts or biotech stocks that are dipping:  AFAM nice squeeze today.  AMED looking strong again.  NVAX has healthy dip.  They’re all performing well, which is usually a bad sign for overall market (bullish stocks in bearish markets).

–  and if you haven’t noticed yet, Solars, our favorite “trading sector” is all messed up:  SPWRA, STP, FSLR, CSIQ, YGE, SOL are all over the place.  Topping pattern.  Short if you can, or take profits if you are currently long.

–  Coffee stocks flat, but ready to make a big move next week: GMCR flirting with 70 early today; PEET strongest;  CBOU weakest, trades  near 5 and horribly under that.  I have a short bias.

–  Education stocks:  showing slight weakness, but looks like it will fade the rest of the MONTH.   STRA had a quick reversal; others are flat- APOL, LINC, EDU

Face it, your portfolio is boring you.  You need to get aggressive and buy what’s hot.  I mean, how long are you going to admire her hotness from afar?  Get up and ask her to dance.  Here’s my list for top 5 longs of the week.  All these stocks have very solid fundamentals and have high PPT scores, and are Victoria Secret models.

#5.  FUQI –  This stock is sexy.  I mean, the ticker alone should tell you that. 

#4.  CISG-  Whoever has been buying this in the single digits has got mad skills.  We’re a bit overbought here, but you can’t really argue against the bullish price/volume spikes.  It makes me think that this company has some big moves coming up and some people know a little more than we do.  Well, I’m catching on…

#3.  STAR – Despite the recent decline on STAR after earnings, this is still a great company.  They raised guidance, beat on earnings, but got downgraded by some analyst.  Lol.

#2.  CFSG – this is an interesting company,  China Fire and Security Group.   I can see this becoming a popular trading stock in a few months.  Get familiar with it early, and play with leverage.

#1.  CYOU –  I see you.  Changyou.com had a record breaking 2nd quarter reporting today, and stock fell.  I’m not so surprised about the dip, since it was downgraded and usually when Chinese stocks are downgraded they sell-off because no one really knows what a Chinese company does anyway.  Anyway, I have this ranked high because the sell offs are healthy for a momentum stock and we are getting closer to buy points.  Volume has yet to be big here, so we caught this early.  Let’s wait for some consolidation before liftoff.

Well, I just got back from the park.  Almost got into a rumble because some moron decided to shove my friend to the ground.  They started swinging and crap, and I almost got one laid on me for trying to stop it.  I’m stupid.  But I honestly didn’t think it would be worth it for my buddy to beat the crap out of this guy.  But come on guys, if I’m holding my boy back HOLD BACK YOUR OWN BOY.  Sheeez.  I swear people just stand around looking pretty.   If I got hit in the face on accident I would have bit someone’s ear off.

Anyway, thought I’d get that off my chest.  So back to the market… right now, I have a few thoughts on the market.  1)  It’s going to tank hard.  2)  But first it will melt up.  We got to 9,000… hurray!  And we have that ridiculous 10,000 psychological spot to get over.  Lately, we haven’t had the kind of volume in the market for me to call this a bull rally.  It’s that special kind of momentum thing going on… first wave is from light buying, second wave is from heavy covering.   We’ve been “busting” through all sorts of resistances with these weak rallies.  So yes, I’m aware of Friday’s red reversal (bullish), and our “confirmed uptrend” on the weekly.  But the weird thing is that I’ve been doing better on the short side fading these rallies (except the last 2 weeks).

So yes, I’m taking my beach chair and watching the waves on the sand.  What I’m particularly looking for is either a nice FTD (follow-through day), or a serious technical breakdown on price and volume.    Try not to make any huge moves until you see some of the same.  I’ll let you know when I see some myself.  Until then… make love on the court.  Wait, that sounded weird.