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August Surf Report 2008: 18 winners, 10 losers

 

White Tip Shark

Winners

FXP ( +0.82% @ 88.45, bought at 87.67)
ACH ( +1.45% @ 21.63)
SKF ( +4.80% @ 125.40, short at 132)
DUG +10.30% @ 33.24 short at 37.14

PCX (+5.89% @ 57.02
bought at 53.85
CLR (+27.33% @ 54.50,
bought at 42.80 -partial
GMXR +18.52% @ 69.57, bought at 58.21 -partial
FXP ( +9.00% at 94.62, bought at 86.79) – partial complete
SKF ( +14.57% at 125.70, bought at 109.71)
FXP ( +21.01% @ 91.76, bought at 75.78 ) – partial
GG ( +11.01% @ 33.10, bought at 29.79)
SKF ( +16.45% @ 127.60, bought at 109.71)
HK ( +8.15% at 28.70, bought at 26.51) -partial
FXP ( +20.01% at 89.0, bought at 74.11) -partial
HK ( +7.20% at 28.42, bought at 26.52) -partial completed
GMXR ( +6.51% at 62.02, bought at 58.22) -partial
BABY ( +6.56% at 24.7, bought at 23.18)
PCX ( +6.13% at 110.12, bought at 103.68)
FCX ( +11.21% at 87.33, bought at 78.52)

Losers

NCTY ( -1.40% @ 18.97, bought at 19.24)
ICE ( -3.12% @ 85.40, bought at 88.15)
IPI ( -14.50% at 47.70, short at 42.24) -partial
WIRE ( -1.57% at 18.79, short at 19.09)
ZNH -4.09% @ 15.96 bought at 16.63
BOH ( –3.21 @ 52.09, short at 50.46)
AFAM ( -13.00% at 43.30, shorted at 38.20)

BOH ( -7.50% @ 54.41, short at 50.46) -partial
APWR ( -19.20% at 20.44, bought at 25.20) -partial
HK ( -9.05% at 28.50 bought at 31.96) – partial and completed

Trader notes:

Not bad for a low volume nonsense month!  Actually, I thinned out a lot of my trading in the final 2 weeks of August.  There just weren’t enough “swells” to catch a good momentum play.  Anyway, I’m starting to post my “Big Wave Index”, which is basically the momentum stocks I track every week all month long until the wave is done.   

A-Power Energy Generation Systems, Ltd. [[apwr]] was the worst stock I had.  But it was only at 1/5 of position size.  Intrepid Potash, Inc. [[ipi]] short was another major loser, but it was actually a hedge since I was heavily long GMXR and CLR (those two have punished me so far in September!)

August saw a lot of “melting up”, so be careful with getting long these stocks.  Look for breakdowns and short them.  So far I gave you a pretty good one, MercadoLibre, Inc. [[meli]] , which should get a new low soon.  Also try shorting some drybulks this month, and .com retailers. 

With voluming picking back up in September, I am starting to enter bigger positions on my trades.

I exceded my goal for August, aiming for 5-7% return, but I got around 8% return.  But so far in September, the implosion of energy stocks has wiped out about half of that!  What a way to start off the month.  🙁

Hey, money moves from hand to hand!  That’s just how the game is played.  Just make sure not that much leaves yours.

Comments »

Update: Big Wave Index

My watch list/index of 10 momentum stocks, with brief notes.  I bought 5 of the 10:  FSYS, KNDL, QSII, JRJC, CNQR. 

  • 6/10 stocks were up
  • Of the 5 I purchased, 4/5 of them were up today, with Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. [[fsys]] up the biggest, and China Finance Online Co. (ADR) [[jrjc]]  the only one in red.  The position sizes of each stock is based on a score.  For example, JRJC scored a “1”, so it only represented 10% of a % of my portfolio.  CNQR was a “3”, so it represented 30% of a % of portfolio. (this is how I position size my trades)
  1. Almost Family, Inc. [[afam]]  – I will remove this from index.  Looks like a short under 40.50
  2. athenahealth, Inc [[athn]] – moved up today.
  3. Calgon Carbon Corporation [[ccc]] – down hard today, but will buy on next up day
  4. Concur Technologies, Inc. [[cnqr]] – quiet.
  5. DXP Enterprises, Inc. [[dxpe]]  – buy on the dips theory.  Today was first dip, so just observe.
  6. GeoEye Inc. [[geoy]] – stay away for now.  September 4 satellite launch = sell on news
  7. [[fsys]] – added today
  8. China Finance Online Co. (ADR) [[jrjc]] – continued sell-off.  Expecting a bounce Thursday.
  9. Kendle International Inc. [[kndl]] – quiet.  I expect a rally.
  10. Quality Systems, Inc. [[qsii]] – quiet.  Stop set to breakeven, no immediate movement = sell

 Surf on!

-gio-
“da Hawaii Tradah”

Comments »

Trade: JRCC, CLR

New longs:   JRCC (33.82), CLR (44.36)

Buying the dip.  There was some nice movements heading into the close.  Energy is going to get heavily shorted from here.

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Trade: NFLX

Completely covered shorts:  NFLX ( -2.98% at 30.91, short at 30.03)

Was hoping this one gets under 30.  But held it through two rough days.  Need more weakness, like a stock like MercadoLibre, Inc. [[meli]] .

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Trade: FSYS

Added to longs:  FSYS (54.38)

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Trade: IEO

Completely sold longs:  IEO ( – 9.07%, bought at 62.04)

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