Climb The Green Mountain, Die From an Avalanche of Coffee Beans

Excerpt:

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GMCR took flight on Thursday after the company topped EPS estimates in its fiscal third-quarter. For the three months ended June 26, Green Mountain earned $18.6 million or 13 cents a share compared to $14.1 million or 12 cents a share in the same period last year. After adjusting for certain items, EPS came to 19 cents per share, topping analyst consensus by a penny. Revenue for the period spiked by 64% to $311.5 million.

The company shipped 846,000 Keurig-branded brewers in Q3, up 90% year-over-year. Given the company’s razor/razor-blade model for single-serving coffee, brewer sales bode well for the continued success of K-Cup portion packs as more households adopt the technology to use them.”

… this is such old news.  I’ve been cheerleading about this company all last year, saying how crazy their YOY growth was going to be, and now that 3Q numbers are out investors are acting like GMCR is going to dominate 2011.  There’s no doubt the Keurig machine is popping up in households across the country, but the curve is going to decline sharply soon.

So how to trade this?  Leave GMCR alone.  Chances are, I’m horribly wrong and GMCR makes new highs over and over.  Kind of like the embarrassment gave me 2 years ago.  That probably won’t strike twice, so I’m not worried about it.  However I like considering the alternative.  I probably would like to pick on CBOU, but I’m afraid they get bought out.  So what’s left is shorting PEET.  My target entry point is <37, you dig?  I’ve been eying this out for a while now.  It hasn’t hurt me staying short from 2 months ago, so I like where we stand here.

Last night I had a movie date.  Despicable Me in 3D.  The glasses were heavy duty and battery operated.  I was tempted to smuggle it out, the same way I smuggled in 2 Arizona ice teas, King Size Reeses Cups, BBQ Fritos, and Gummy Bears.  All I can say is, watch that movie this weekend, and pay the extra $4 for 3D.  Also, bring a large jacket to smuggle in the ice teas, because it just looks too obvious in your jeans.