Stocks… Just a Feeling

Have you ever watched a stock and just had that “feeling” it was going somewhere? It can be a terrible way to trade, but usually there’s a reason for that “feeling” that developed over time. The trick is to find out why you feel that way, and if it’s a good reason then you keep in on the radar, if not you trash the idea. This is probably the simplest way to sift through stocks, and it can be advantageous to you because at least you’ll be investing in companies that you know and have been keeping an eye on.

So, what’s your feeling? Do you have any stocks that are begging for a prediction? If so, start brainstorming. Here’s what I came up with so far:

Feeling: Google will break $500 this year…. then $1,000 in a few years.
… Google made many millionaires and billionares who cashed in at the beginning of the year and the stock collapsed under pressure. But Google is Google! Google is the king of the internet. Recently they bought their office building Googleplex for a couple of million, and they’re hiring hundreds of talented people every month. Also when you think of it, internet advertising is still relatively new, and creative programmers are coming up with new ways to advertise (first it was banners, then annoying pop ups, now there is streaming video everywhere). Then there is China, India, and other super populated countries that Google is targeting.

Feeling: Sears Holding on brink of correction, all the way down below $100.
Sears almost seemed inflation-proof. It was one of those stocks that held its ground and attracted new money. Still, the way I see Sears as a store breaks my confidence. I’m not sure how much longer Sears or K Mart can compete against giant speciality stores. Oh yeah, and Cramer is pumping this stock like crazy. Okay, so my arguments aren’t that great, but still, the feeling is there.

Feeling: Apple releases iPod phone, shares head over $100
Clearly investors are not so impressed with Apple’s computer side of the business, and I’m not sure how successful their campaign is (I still see more Dell laptops than Apple powerbooks at Starbucks, but the chasm is definitely closing). Anyway, I think Jobs is a smart guy and a surprisingly smart market timer (on the other hand, his nemesis Gates is screwing up Vista who keeps postponing its release). I just have that feeling he’s letting the public use up their 5th generation iPods until they’re bored of it and they have to buy a new one. I’m still not tired of my Ipod Video. Jobs doesn’t need to worry about marketshare, he can do whatever he wants… what a great place to be!

Feeling: Elan will not reach $30 this year or next
The most popular biotech stock out there is getting the FDA’s clear to release Tysabri. Everyone is so optimistic about this stock filling the gap up above $30. But to me, Elan has sadly become a story stock. When investors read further, they will come to another chapter of a PML case that will inevitably hit this stock hard.

Feeling: Another huge terrorist attack will send gold flying and airlines crashing.
What’s going on in the news lately? I wasn’t too comfortable with Bush’s doubts; he said something like ‘why the terrorist attack on NY subway was called off so that the bigger attack will go through’. Plus, they must be pissed now that America has been bombing them again. Anyway I don’t follow that kind of news. Gold has sank below $600 making it a great place for a hedge if an attack does come. Imagine if you bought gold at 9/11/2001 when it was about $270.

Anyway, those were just a few of my feelings. If any of these develop to reality at least I’ll be a step ahead and be ready to make the trade.