Wednesday, January 18, 2017
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The Week Ahead: All Eyes on Washington, Davos & Europe

mario draghi

1. Geopolitical Events. On Tuesday Federal Reserve San Francisco President John Williams, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, and Federal Reserve New York President William Dudley will speak at 8:45 a.m. EST. On Wednesday and Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen will speak from San Francisco. The ECB will issue its latest interest rate announcement on Thursday, with press conference to follow. On Friday Federal Reserve San Francisco President John Williams will speak to the Bay Area Council Economic Institute. Also, on Friday Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak to the New Jersey Bankers Association at 9:00 a.m. EST.

2. Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications, jobless claims and CPI, industrial production and housing starts.

3. Earnings Releases. Notable releases include UNH MS C GS IBM UNP GE SLB.

Monday, January 16:

U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day observances.

Tuesday, January 17:

The World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland begins with Chinese President Xi Jinping among the headline speakers. He has spoken and called for no trade war with the U.S.

Wednesday, January 18:

December CPI is released at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%.

December Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.6% from -0.4%.

The Federal Reserve Beige Book is released at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen speaks from San Francisco on monetary policy at the Commonwealth Club at 3:00 p.m. EST.

Thursday, January 19:

The European Central Bank (ECB) is out with its latest interest rate announcement at 7:45 a.m. EST and will hold a press conference with ECB Head Mario Draghi at 8:30 a.m. EST.

December Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 1,180,000 from 1,090,000.

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen speaks from San Francisco again this time at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at 8:00 p.m. EST.

Friday, January 20:

President Elect Donald J. Trump is inaugurated at the 45th President of the United States at noon.

Comments »

Morning Briefing: Data Dump This Morning

econ

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck OOMA WPX.

In After Hours Trading: none of note.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +2.50, Dow Jones +14, NDX +6.50 and Russell 2000 +2.60. Asia and Europe higher.

Copper, silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.35% yield, one month change -12 and +25 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

5

Top Sectors Utilities.

Weak Sectors Conglomerates led the way down with Industrials and Financials.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): none of note.

Due Tuesday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): OZRK CMA INFO MS EDU SNY UNH.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: In a speech yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen was positive on the economy and thought it was also close to the 2% inflation level. Lots of data this morning will move markets. Stocks no longer the most traded securities. Davos could be part of the global problem?

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): BAC +.02 BLK +.12 FHN -.02 INFY +.80 JPM +.29 PNC +.13.

Missing: SJR.

Lower Guidance: TSM.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1145 stocks rise and 1761 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 959 rise and 1883 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

December PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 0.3% from 0.4%.

December Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 0.7% from 0.1%.

January Michigan Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 98.8 from 98.2.

Politico

Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak at 9:30 a.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, JWA. JP Morgan Healthcare Conference.

Conference of Note

North American Auto Show in Detroit. Precision Genome Engineering Conference.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse IAG
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies MBLY
Nomura
Needham MX
Raymond James FB
Guggenheim
Friedman Billings
CLSA
Stifel
Robert W. Baird ZAYO CCOI

Comments »

The Fly’s Work Is Only Half Done: The Other Half Of Fake News $ACIA

bud fox

As a political science major, I have watched as The Fly he has morphed into calling b.s. on news stories. His greatest call of the year was on the election of Trump. Even I was a skeptic. Now I consider his rants much more closely.

So…The Fly has done a great job of calling out b.s. on fake news stories related to politics. That my friends is only half the battle. The other half of the battle is fake news stories on stocks which IMO is hurting investors as much if not more than fake news from politics.

Let me paint a picture with several examples of fake news.

1.The most offensive is someone, usually a hedge fund, starting a rumor of a buyout for a company so that they can dump their position. A seasoned pro can spot this a mile away. Or the hedge fund that gets short and then plants a story on the company they shorted.

2.Economic data points that get revised a month later after driving market in a wrong direction. Can you say unemployment report. It moves markets the first Friday of each month then a month later it is revised.

3.Company driven fake news. Great example Acacia Communications (ACIA) gets rocked on Tuesday when they speak at the Needham Conference dropping from $64.64 high to $57.74 by the close. Why? In their presentation, Acacia is guarded on China. Then after in 1 on 1s they clarify and the stock climbs from $57.74 to this morning’s price of $60.59. A serious WTF.  I guess Reg FD does not apply to companies.

I can go on with other areas but you get the point. Fake news creates opportunities.

The Fly is a stud on sniffing this stuff out. He is followed widely and I dare say that I would like to see him now take the lead on fake news related to stocks as well as political fake news. In fact, I would like to see a tag the alerts to #fakenewsthefly.

P.S. Related to #3 how many companies are getting prosecuted for insider trading?

Comments »

Morning Briefing: Oil & Gold Ripping This Morning $USO $GLD

ibcgoldcoins

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck KOS NAK.

In After Hours Trading: KBH -.04.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -5.50, Dow Jones -37, NDX -14.25 and Russell 2000 -3.60. Asia and Europe lower.

Copper, silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.33% yield, one month change -14 and +23 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

5

Top Sectors most higher led by Services and Healthcare.

Weak Sectors Utilities, Consumer Goods and Conglomerates led the way down.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): none of note.

Due tomorrow morning (by avg. trade volume descending): JPM WFC FHN BLK INFY PNC FRC.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: The dollar fell as did yields on the 10 year bond and Biotech shares fell on Trump’s news conference. Italian bank Unicredit seek to raise capital, $14 billion. ECB Minutes out later this morning. Obamacare clears first hurdle in the U.S. Senate.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): TSM +.14.

Missing: SJR.

Lower Guidance: TSM.

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2026 stocks rise and 919 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1469 rise and 1209 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

Weekly Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

Politico

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen will speak at 7:00 p.m. EST. Also, on Thursday Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans will speak at 8:45 a.m. EST, along with Dallas President Robert Kaplan (no time specified) and St. Louis President James Bullard at 1:15 p.m. EST along with appearing this morning as a host on CNBC.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, ELY MNST SPLK KMX WLTW CRSXF. JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. Needham Annual Growth Conference.

Conference of Note

North American Auto Show in Detroit. Precision Genome Engineering Conference.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch HII ABC KALU
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies SXL OKE OGS SWX ENLC
Nomura
Needham
Raymond James
Guggenheim CAFD MRK
Friedman Billings
CLSA
Stifel GATX

Comments »

Morning Briefing: All Eyes Focused On The NewsConference With President Elect Trump

trump-screaming

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck BRG MRDN PE PFGC.
In After Hours Trading: SNX +.48.

Lower Guidance: LMNR.

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -2.25, Dow Jones -1, NDX +0.25 and Russell 2000 -1.70. Asia higher ex China and Europe mixed.
Copper lower with silver lower and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.37% yield, one month change -10 and +20 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors most higher led by Services and Healthcare.

Weak Sectors Utilities, Consumer Goods and Conglomerates led the way down.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): KBH.
Due tomorrow morning (by avg. trade volume descending): DAL FCEL SJR TSM.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: Oil looks to be holding above $50. Bond gurus Bill Gross noted a yield of 2.6% on the 10 year would end the Bond Bull market and Jeff Gundlach said a yield of 3.0% would kill the stock market rally. President Elect Trump denies any compromising information about him.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): MSM +.02 SVU -.09.
Missing: .

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1867 stocks rise and 1054 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1861 rise and 979 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics Weekly

Mortgage Index rose 5.8% week over week.
Weekly Crude Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

Politico

Federal Reserve New York President William Dudley speaks at 1:30 p.m. EST.

News Conference with President Elect Trump this morning.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, SIG TINY IDRA CRM. JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. Needham Annual Growth Conference.
Conference of Note North American Auto Show in Detroit. The 19th Annual ICR Conference. Precision Genome Engineering Conference.

M & A News
Key Upgrades and Downgrades
Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup  Upgrades NE ESV CAG  DowngradesDUK
Merrill Lynch  Upgrades VRTC
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
Nomura
Needham
Raymond James  Upgrades WPZ WRD

Comments »

The Market HAS NOT Had A Huge Run

blindfolded

I keep hearing on either Bloomberg or CNBC the market has had a huge run. Sorry but this is not the case at all. Not even close. The Russell 2000, Financials and Industrial might have had a huge run but not the S&P 500 which by default is the market.

Since Q4, I have a Model that tracks up and down moves. Absolute high to absolute lows.

Here is the table of the up moves.

up-moves

Here is a table of the down moves.

down-moves

So where do we stand now? We are just starting an up move after completing the smallest down move since we have been tracking, Q4 2012.

Typically, the first up move of the year does not start until mid month or in February. So could this year be bucking the trend. Me thinks that is a possibility.

More to point in this being a huge move. Hardly. Since Q4 of  2012, the move from 11/4-12/13 was the seventh best move. That is hardly epic.

Again…lies, damned lies and statistics.

Comments »

Morning Briefing: Futures Up Modestly

ibcaxe

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck ATW CIO CSFL FMBI WMB.

In After Hours Trading: CUDA +.08 SHLM +.04 APOL -.05 WDFC -.05.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: CUDA.

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +0.25, Dow Jones -6, NDX +2.75 and Russell 2000 +1.50. Asia mixed and Europe higher.

Copper higher with silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.38% yield, one month change -8 and +27 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

5

Top Sectors Healthcare.

Weak Sectors Utilities and Conglomerates led the way down.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): LMNR SNX.

Due Monday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): SVU MSM.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: Dollar pulling back ahead of Trump news conference tomorrow. British Pound continues to fall while the FTSE rises. Yahoo (YHOO) CEO Marissa Mayer will leave the company after Verizon (VZ) sale closes. President Elect Trump appoints his son in law Jared Kushner as a senior White House adviser.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): none of note.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1073 stocks rise and 1887 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1164 rise and 1685 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

The November JOLTS Job Openings is due out at 10:00 a.m.

Overnight China reported Producer Prices surged 5.5% last year.

Politico

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, PTLA LGFA LGFB AMAG. JP Morgan Healthcare Conference. Needham Annual Growth Conference.

Conference of Note

North American Auto Show in Detroit. The 19th Annual ICR Conference. Precision Genome Engineering Conference.

M & A News

Valeant (VRX) sells assets to L’Oreal for just over $1.3 billion. Also, will sell Dendreon for $819.9 million.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs ETFC XRX VOD GHL
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup PCLN CMA GS EXPE
Merrill Lynch ALK ILMN
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse DISCA
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies WRLD
Nomura
Needham
Raymond James
Societe Generale
Friedman Billings
CLSA
Stifel WPZ BIDU

Comments »

The Week Ahead Sees Lots of Fed Speak

ibcyellen

1. Geopolitical Events. On Monday Federal Reserve Boston President Eric Rosengren will speak at 9:00 a.m. EST. Also on Monday Federal Reserve Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart will speak at 12:40 p.m. EST. On Wednesday President Elect Donald Trump will hold his first press conference in five months. On Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen will speak at 7:00 p.m. EST. Also, on Thursday Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans will speak at 8:45 a.m. EST, along with Dallas President Robert Kaplan (no time specified) and St. Louis President James Bullard at 1:15 p.m. EST. On Friday Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak at 9:30 a.m. EST.

2. Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications, jobless claims and PPI, Retail Sales and Michigan Sentiment.

3. Earnings Releases. Notable releases include GPN AYI SNX PRGS MSM HAIN TSM DAL JPM WFC.

Monday, January 9:

Japanese markets are closed for trading.

Tuesday, January 10:

No events of note.

Wednesday, January 11:

President Elect Donald Trump holds his first press conference in five months.

The latest short interest data for NYSE and NASDAQ is due out after the close of trading. Data is through settlement of December 30th and trade date of December 27th.

Thursday, January 12:

Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen speaks to educators through a webcast.

Friday, January 13:

December PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 0.3% from 0.4%.

December Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 0.7% from 0.1%.

January Michigan Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 98.8 from 98.2.

Comments »

Morning Briefing: All Eyes On The Jobs Data

ibcwtf

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck JD MC MRTX SUM.

In After Hours Trading: HELE +0.48.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: HELE.

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -2, Dow Jones -20, NDX +0 and Russell 2000 -2.10. Asia mixed and Europe a bit lower.

Copper higher with silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.35% yield, one month change -4 and +18 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Healthcare, Materials and Energy.

Weak Sectors Conglomerates and Financials.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): none of note.

Due Monday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): AYI CMC GPN.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: China is prepared for a trade war with the U.S. if they want it. An APP to track when Trump tweets about one of your stocks.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): ANGO +.03 AZZ -.17 GBX -.04.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1296 stocks rise and 1640 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1177 rise and 1715 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

December Nonfarm Payroll is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 172,500 from 178,000. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.7% from 4.6%.

November Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to -2.2% from 2.7%.

Politico

Fedspeak today. Federal Reserve Chicago President Evans speaks at 11:15 a.m. EST. Followed by Federal Reserve Richmond President Lacker at 1:00 p.m. EST. Last, Federal Reserve Dallas President Kaplan speaks at 3:30 p.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, BIIB GSAT TEVA. Goldman Sachs Global Energy Conference.

Conference of Note

The Consumer Electronic Show (CES) in Las Vegas today.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup AVY
Merrill Lynch TCAP
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies TFX HWAY
Nomura
Needham SYK
Raymond James
Societe Generale
Friedman Billings
CLSA
Stifel GKOS EXPE

Comments »

Morning Briefing: Futures Lower With Lots Of Data Points Today

calendarimage

Below is a morning briefing I put together each day. It helps understand what is moving markets.

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck none of note. Secondaries On Deck HLX HPP KNOP KRC LOXO MYL.In After Hours Trading: SONC +.03.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -5, Dow Jones -25, NDX -11 and Russell 2000 -4.60. Asia mixed and Europe a bit lower.Copper higher with silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.44% yield, one month change +4 and +20 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors All.

Weak Sectors None.

One month winners All.

Three Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): HELE PSMT.Due Friday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): ANGO AZZ GBX.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: The Dollar is pulling back as uncertainty on how Trump policies will impact interest rates. The Yuan rallied. Gold continues its rise. Overseas markets are mixed.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): STZ +.24 WBA +.01.Missing: SCHN MON.

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2582 stocks rise and 444 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2253 rise and 653 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of November 15th. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 4066 stocks rose for 2016 and 2259 fell. Updated 12/30/16 close.

Economics

Monthly Challenger Gray Job Cuts totaled 33,627 job cuts for December.At 8:15 a.m. EST ADP Payroll is due out and estimates are for 170,000.

At 8:30 a.m. EST Weekly Jobless Claims are due out.

At 10:00 a.m. December ISM Services are due out and expected to come in at 56.6 from 57.2.

At 10:30 Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out.

At 11:00 a.m. Weekly Crude Inventories are due out.

Politico

Congress is back in session. Trump is tweeting. Anything is possible.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, LB PWE EXTN PVCT IONS TMUS CYDY. Citibank Internet, Media and Telecom Conference. Wolfe Research Refiners Conference.

Conference of Note

The Consumer Electronic Show (CES) begins in Las Vegas today.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs HLT
Morgan Stanley TRV
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch VLO
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Key Banc
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
Nomura RJF AMTD GH:
Needham AEIS
Raymond James BCR
Societe Generale
Friedman Billings
CLSA
Stifel DPM

Comments »