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Intraday Levels To Watch on SPY

Today is a range bound day trading pivot to resistance. Many of the intraday value lines (5 minute, 1 hours and prior day last 2 hours) are being  challenged on the upside.

A break above yesterday’s last two hour high could take us to resistance.

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Daily Playbook

January 3, 2013

In After Hours Trading

HOTT holiday comps up 2.2% versus 2.3% estimate. MLNX lowers guidance. AMD names new CFO. LNDC (+.18).

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -4.00, DJI -27, NDX -5.50 with fair value flat) Asia higher and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.008. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close ANGO PRGS SHLM SONC. Due tomorrow morning before the open FINL MOS.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

FDO (-.06).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2822 stocks rise and 278 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2204 rise and 335 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

Challenger, Gray & Christmas and ADP issue their monthly job cuts and jobs survey respectively. December auto sales are due out from Ford (F), General Motors (GM) and Chrysler along with several overseas manufacturers.

Politico

President Obama is now basking in the sun of Hawaii until next Monday as the Fiscal Cliff has been kinda solved.

 

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issues minutes from its December meeting.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

IEEE International Nanoelectronics Conference 2013 with CSCO and IBM presenting. BKS to announce holiday sales at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Conference of Note

Goldman Sachs Healthcare CEOs Unscripted with MRK SIAL BDX WPI REGN OCR.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley BCR
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup ACOR HUN WGP
Barclays
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard SPWR
Merrill Lynch MR PCLN
Jefferies
Cantor Fitzgerlad
Dahlman Rose
Sterne Agee
Stifel Nicolaus
Societe Generale
Keefe Bruyette
Friedman Billings
Robert W. Baird
Needham
Sun Trust RH MS

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TASR Raises Revenue Guidance

This posted on www.briefing.com this morning about Taser. Taser now needs to take the momentum of police departments and convince individuals to own the Taser over a gun. I am a big fan of Briefing for up to the minute news:

TASER announces new orders; expects Q4 revenues to exceed $30 mln, Capital IQ consensus $28.7 mln  (8.94)
Co announced several large TASER Conducted Electrical Weapon (CEW) orders for more than 2,600 TASER X2 and more than 1,000 TASER X26 in the last two weeks of 2012. TASER received and shipped the following orders for TASER CEWs and various related accessories in the fourth quarter:

  • Phoenix Police Department (AZ) for 2,365 X2s
  • Prince George’s County (MD) for 500 X26s
  • Washtenaw County Sheriff’s Department (MI) for 165 X2s
  • Henrico County Police Department (VA) for 100 X2s with 100 TASER CAM HD cameras
  • Belton Police Department (MO) for 35 X2s International orders for 24 X2s, 575 X26s and 57,000 TASER Cartridges

Co stated it now expects Q4 revenues to exceed $30 million (Capital IQ consensus $28.7 mln).

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/InPlayEq/InPlay/InPlay.htm#ixzz2GurBSNFa
Under Creative Commons License: Attribution
Follow us: @Briefingcom on Twitter | Briefingcom on Facebook

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Not Overbought

On Friday I noted under my Twitter handle bullet86 that SPY was oversold. So the rebound Monday and today is not unexpected.  We are not even remotely close to an extreme overbought condition on a DAILY basis. My rank is a derivation of RSI and the score is 65 and was 28  last Friday. It is proprietary but I do talk about it from time to time at extremes. Above 70 is overbought and below 30 is oversold.

Another key for today’s action is how the Erlanger Value Lines close the day on SPY. A gap open that gets no follow through is NOT good. We have broken back below the 5 minute and one hour lows. Not good. Resistance is down at $143.46 and that could be hit today given the break of the noted ranges. Be careful here if you are a buyer. I would rather be a buyer tomorrow if we can hang strong.

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Update On Recommendations. Batting Average 100% on Six Ideas (Can Only Go Downhill)

Here are the names we have recommended and current price with p/l and %. Four long ideas ans Two Shorts. Batting Average 100%, so far. I write this and one is bound to become a loser. I am done for the year. Will be back January 2nd with Daily Playbook and more ideas.

P 12/4 $8.91 $8.97 $0.06 0.67%

AMD 12/10 $2.35 $2.59 $0.24 10.21%

CMG 12/18 $288.01 $292.52 $4.51 1.57%

TASR 12/17 $7.67 $8.69 $1.02 13.30%

Shorts

SWHC 12/17 $9.26 $8.10 $-1.16 -12.53%

RGR 12/17 $46.40 $43.59 $-2.81 -6.05%

 

 

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Daily Playbook

December 20, 2012

In After Hours Trading

ACN (+.02), BBBY (+.01), MLHR (-.04), JBL (+.05), SCS (+.01).

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +1.250, DJI +8, NDX +4.80 with fair value lower) Asia and Europe higher. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield -.019. Prices as of 7:45 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close NKE RHT RIMM MU CTAS TIBX RECN FCEL. Due tomorrow morning before the open WAG SHAW PNY.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

AAM (-.51), DRI (-.01), KBH (+.04), RAD (+.09), SCHL (-.16).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1504 stocks rise and 1518 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1236 rise and 1211 fall. The S&P 500 now back above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

Q3 GDP is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 2,8% from 2.7%. Then at 10:00 a.m. EST, November Existing Home Sales are due out and are expected to rise to 4.90 million from 4.79 million and November Leading Indicators are expected to fall to -0.2% from 0.2%.

Politico

House expected to vote on Boehner’s Plan B.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

None of note.

Conference of Note

None of note.

M & A News

ICE may bid for NYX at $33 a share.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs SLGN
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup MTZ
Barclays
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard
Merrill Lynch
Jefferies LXP

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Daily Playbook

December 19, 2012

In After Hours Trading

AIR (+.04), APOG (+.05), HEI (+.01), ORCL (+.03).

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +3.50, DJI +35, NDX +10.80 with fair value lower) Asia higher and Europe higher. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and flat vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.007. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close NKE RHT RIMM MU CTAS TIBX RECN FCEL. Due tomorrow morning before the open CCL DFS CAG KMX DRI KBH NEOG RAD SCHL WGO.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

FDX (+.09), GIS (+.07), NAV (-10.46).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2272 stocks rise and 793 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1795 rise and 700 fall. The S&P 500 now back below its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now positive again, barely, and we remain with the buy signal but a turn may be forthcoming. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

November Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to drop to 873,000 from 894,000.

Politico

Bank of England releases latest minutes. President Obama to appoint Vice President Biden to review gun control changes.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst Meetings JCI CBI.

Conference of Note

None of note.

M & A News

KCG receives a bid for $3.75 from GETCO.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Barclays
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard
Merrill Lynch
Jefferies ATRS
Cantor Fitzgerlad FB
Dahlman Rose
Sterne Agee
Stifel Nicolaus
Societe Generale
Keefe Bruyette
Friedman Billings
Robert W. Baird
Needham VTSS

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Hedge Funds Are F#$%ed

Quite the headline. But it is true and no one is talking about it. Why are they f#$%ed? Simply because many cannot cheat any more. That may be harsh but it is true.  Now they must pick stocks without the insider’s edge.

The insider’s edge consisted of expert networks, other hedge funds “experts” and corporate insiders that invested in their funds. The biggest funds have been lined with the Fortune 1500 executives. No more thanks to the shut down of Pequot several years ago.

Hedge fund returns suck this year. Just go to www.hedgeindex.com and look at the returns through the end of October. Dedicated Short Bias -13.56%. Long/Short 1.88%. Event Driven 3.60%. Equity Market Neutral 4.43%. S&P 500  14.96%.

Time and again in the last 26 years I have heard, “well we do not need the technicals or a quantitative model because our network is what is our advantage”. Not anymore.

The Galleon insider trading scandal has every hedge fund in fear, especially now. Why? Because until now most of the convictions for insider trading were due to the perps being on tape. The Level Global/Diamondback Capital verdict out last night took the fear factor to a new high. Both those firms are toast as Diamondback last week joined Level Global in the category of hedge fund being shut down.

Why? Now the hedgies are being convicted without being on tape. Simply the jury believes they are guilty. The convictions will continue for the next several years as the Feds have so much material it is like shooting fish in a barrel for them.

Personally, I like this. Why? Because now hedge funds need to more intuitive and use quantitative tools like the ones I work with to make decisions. A great example of this process was yesterday’s recommendation of Chipolte. Such a process can enable researchers like me to best the returns of hedge funds several times over.

One of my smartest clients I ever worked with is a manager in Atlanta who told me in 1992 to use the quantitative tools but do your reading. If you do both, then you are ahead of 95% of your competition as most managers and salespeople are lazy. “Le Fly” is not lazy. His readers are lucky.

I came to this website because one of my client told me about “Le Fly”. As I started to read him,  “Le Fly” reminded me of one of my long time clients who busted the housing bubble. Just read the first three pages of House of Cards by William Cohan and you will see the similarities to Bennet Sedacca. Unfortunately, Bennet passed away in 2009 at too early an age but “Le Fly” is picking up the torch.

“Le Fly” is on to something here with this website, and we have been involved in other financial social media websites, and if you follow him then you to can learn much.

Hedge funds are going to have to morph their process if they are going to regain their edge. “Le Fly” has an edge in that he is showing you the reader how to make money, offer stops, educate and entertain you all for free. Such a deal.

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Tacos, Beers, Salsa…What’s Not To Like. New Buy CMG

December 18, 2012

We are adding Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) to our Morning Matters Portfolio which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com as it just moved into a short squeeze for the first time in two months. There is some great upside on our stock scorecard and the technicals are finally starting to improve.

[Image 1]

There is nice earnings growth as the company is expected to earn $8.89 this year and $10.41 in 2013. That is growth of $1.52 or 17.09%. The P/E will drop from 33 to 27 in the next year.

[Image 2]

The Erlanger Weekly DMA (yellow chart) has now seen the stock price move above it which is a nice confirmation and the Erlanger Crossover Spread is in aggressive but not confirmed buy. We note the short ratio is above 5 and short intensity is elevated.

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Daily Playbook. Goldman Puts A Buy on SIRI

December 18, 2012

In After Hours Trading

President Obama proposed raising the cap on tax increase to above $400,000 from $250,000 and to accept certain spending cuts. Both the President and House Speaker Boehner are getting closer to a deal. The new number for tax revenues to be raised is $1.20 billion the exact middle of where President Obama and House Speaker wanted to be, $1.6 billion and $800 million.

 

DMND (-.03), SHFL (-.02), STEI (+.02).

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +6.00, DJI +43, NDX +17.80 with fair value lower) Asia higher ex Hong Kong and Europe higher. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude Futures higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and flat vs. Yen. US ten-year Treasury Yield +.0105. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close ORCL HEI APOG AIR. Due tomorrow morning before the open FDS JEF SAFM.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

FDS ( ), JEF ( ), SAFM (+.13).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2036 stocks rise and 1003 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1717 rise and 766 fall. The S&P 500 now back below its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now positive again, barely, and we remain with the buy signal but a turn may be forthcoming. We are back to invested on the Madison Market Timing Indicator.

 

Economics

Due out this week housing starts, Q3 GDP, existing home sales, leading indicators, personal income and Michigan Confidence.

Politico

Dallas Federal Reserve President Fisher speaks on the economy at 1:15 p.m. EST.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst Meetings OREX MED.

Conference of Note

Lazard Capital Med Tech Conference.

M & A News

ARB to be acquired NLSN for $48 a share.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs SIRI CJES
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Barclays
Wachovia/Wells Fargo HRZN
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
Lazard
Merrill Lynch
Jefferies
Cantor Fitzgerlad UNIS IRWD
Dahlman Rose
Sterne Agee
Stifel Nicolaus
Societe Generale
Keefe Bruyette
Friedman Billings
Robert W. Baird
Needham CUB

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