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The Morning Briefing: More Fedspeak Ahead

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck Guaranty Bancshares (GNTY). Secondaries of note APTS BKFS CYTK GAIN.

In After Hours Trading: AMC -.16 AR +.08 ATW -.08 CVG +.07 CST -.10 FN -.08 HTZ -.77 MAR +.10 P +.13 PAA -.09 PTLA +.07 POST -.04 SWX -.21 TSO +.11.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: AMD.

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +2.50, Dow Jones +30, NDX +4.25 and Russell 2000 +2.40. Asia mixed and Europe higher.

Copper higher with silver and gold lower as well. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.39% yield, one day change +5, one month change 0 and +64 one year change. Prices as of 7:50 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Consumer Goods, Conglomerates and Technology.

Weak Sectors Financials, Healthcare and Utilities.

One month winners Utilities and Services.

Three Month Winners Consumer Goods, Utilities and Technology.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All except for Energy and Conglomerates.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): DIS PCLN NVDA EA SLF MCHP JAXX DOX SLW NWSA among others.

Due Wednesday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): VMC CRL ATHM WEN BID WWWW SODA VSI among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: The VIX closed at its lowest level since 1993 yesterday. Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh said when risk measures are low the market is vulnerable. Iron Ore prices continue to drop on Chinese weakness. South Korea is holding an election today with the lieveral Moon Jae-in holding the lead. JP Morgan tells banks to partner with them as a deposit drain is pending with Fed tightening.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]):AGN +.04 AON +.18 DISCA -.09 ODP +.04 W +.09 ZBRA +.07.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1316 stocks rise and 1602 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1286 rise and 1575 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is back above its 50 day moving exponential average and is above 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of Friday’s close. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 2662 stocks are higher and 1979 lower. Updated 3/31/17 close.

Economics

JOLTS Job Openings for March due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and came in at 5.74 million last month.

Politico

Federal Reserve Dallas President Rob Kaplan speaks at 4:15 p.m. EDT. Boston President Eric Rosengren also speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, IR EPAM RST ABX MASI. Jefferies Technology Group Investor Conference. Wells Fargo Industrial & Construction Conference.

Conference of Note

American Society Gene Cell Therapy 20TH Annual Meeting.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup AZUL
Merrill Lynch ESNT LSI
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
SunTrust RH
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies ALV
RBC
Needham
Raymond James AZUL

Comments »

The Week Ahead, Le Pen Is Out. Italian Elections Next

1. Geopolitical Events. On Monday Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaks in Chicago at 8:45 a.m. EDT. On Tuesday Federal Reserve Dallas President Rob Kaplan speaks at 4:15 p.m. EDT. Boston President Eric Rosengren also speaks at 1:00 p.m. EDT and on Wednesday at noon. On Thursday Federal Reserve New York President William Dudley speaks at 6:25 a.m. EDT. On Friday Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans speaks at 9:00 a.m. EDT.

2. Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications, jobless claims and PPI, CPI, retail sales and Michigan Sentiment.

3. Earnings Releases. Notable releases include JD EOG PCLN DIS FOXA NTES ENB BAM JCP MT. See the Earnings section.

Monday, May 8:

Markets are closed in France and Russia for Victory Day.

Analyst meetings of note SCWX VZ.

Tuesday, May 9:

Russia remains closed for Victory Day celebrations.

The latest NYSE and NASDAQ short interest data is due out after the close. The data runs through settlement date of April 28th and trade date of April 25th.

Analyst meetings of note IR EPAM RST ABX MASI.

Wednesday, May 10:

Markets are closed in India.

Analyst meetings of note NVDA MSFT.

Thursday, May 11:

G-7 Finance Ministers meet in Italy.

April PPI is due out at 7:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise 0.2% from -0.1% last month.

STM EVH WMB WPZ WFC IMAX BSX.

Friday, May 12:

April CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.3% from -0.3% in March.

April Retail Sales is due out 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.6% from -0.2%.

May Michigan Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to remain at 97.

Analyst meetings of note AET.

Comments »

Morning Briefing: Futures Refuse To Pile Onto Yesterday’s Late Selling

In After Hours Trading

7 IPOs on deck this week led by Cloudera. Secondaries of note AA BRXL ICHR OPIT SFST TRU TRUE VRNA XRF.

In After Hours Trading: AMGN +.14 SAM +.20 BWLD -.23 CTXS +.02 EFX +.03 EQIX +1.07 ETH -.04 GG +.11 LVS +.04 MLNX -.20 NTRI +.08 ORLY -.28 PYPL +.03 PSA -.05 SU +.18 TER +.06 XLNX +.03 XL +.03.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +3, Dow Jones +26, NDX +11.50 and Russell 2000 +3.00. Asia mixed and Europe lower.

Copper lower with silver and gold slightly higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.31% yield, one day change -2, one month change -7 and +46 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Healthcare, Conglomerates, Services and Indusrtials.

Weak Sectors Consumer Goods, Energy, Materials and Utilities.

One month winners Utilities and Services.

Three Month Winners Consumer Goods, Utilities and Technology.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All except for Energy and Conglomerates.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): GOOG MSFT AMZN INTC SBUX BIDU AFL VRTX WDC CERN among others.

Due Frisday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): XOM CVX SNY CL UBS HMC GM PSX LYB TRI SYF WY IMO among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: Bank of Japan lowered its inflation forecast. President Trump’s 250 word tax plan was short on details and markets are skeptical. Lots of economic data at 8:30 a.m. EDT. From a Dot.com perspective we are in 1997 not close to 2000 bubble.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): APD +.05 ALXN +.14 AMT +.28 AIT +.12 AZN +.17 BMY + .10 CELG +.05 DPZ +.09 DOW +.06 STAY +.23 LLL +.26 RTN +.13 UNP +.09 ZBH +.02.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1699 stocks rise and 1247 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1743 rise and 1071 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is back above its 50 day moving exponential average and is above 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of Friday’s close. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 2662 stocks are higher and 1979 lower. Updated 3/31/17 close.

Economics

March Durable Goods are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to1.25% from 1.70%.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

President Trump welcomes the President of Argentina. He also signs an Executive Order related to Veterans. Last he dines with the Supreme Court Justices.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is out with its latest interest rate decision overnight and left rates unchanged.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is out with its latest interest rate decision at 7:45 a.m. EDT and left rates unchanged and will follow with a press conference at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, KT CMRX MNST.

Conference of Note

American Academy of Neurology Annual Meeting

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan AAL
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley AKAM
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse CSCO ANET MLNX
Banc of America
UBS
SunTrust RH
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
RBC
Needham
Raymond James
Piper Jaffray PYPL MLNX

Comments »

Morning Briefing: Tuesday Action Builds On Monday’s Gains

In After Hours Trading

7 IPOs on deck this week led by Cloudera. Secondaries of note CTVR.

In After Hours Trading: AA +.15 ABX -.07 CR +.05 JJSF -.03 QDEL +.16 SANM +.06 TMUS +.44 SLCA +.03 UIS +.08 WRB +.26 WNC +.04 WHR -.16.

Lower Guidance: WHR.

Mixed Guidance: ESRX SANM UDR.

Positive Guidance: IEX SLM.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +4.25, Dow Jones +11, NDX +11.75 and Russell 2000 +7.20. Asia and Europe higher.

Copper higher with silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is flat. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.30% yield, one day change +2, one month change -12 and +38 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors All.

Weak Sectors None.

One month winners Utilities and Services.

Three Month Winners Consumer Goods, Utilities and Technology.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All except for Energy and Conglomerates.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): T TXN CB SYK COF DFS ILMN EQR EW BXP among others.

Due Wednesday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): PEP BA UTX TMO GD ANTM NOC BCE NSC WM STT BAX DISH TEL among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: President Trump to propose a 15% tax rate. North Korea continues to flex its muscles but did not complete a nuclear test. European Union toughens its stance against British. Monday gains have held into Tuesday. Oil is back under $50./p>

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): ADS +.05 BX +.14 DOV +.48 KEY +.02 MTG +.06 PPG +.03 DGX +.15 SNA +.05 SON +.03 TRV-.22 VZ -.01.

Missing: NUE SYNT.

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: DHR DOV DGX SHW SON.

Positive Guidance: UNH.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2100 stocks rise and 847 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2069 rise and 792 fall.

The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is back above its 50 day moving exponential average and is above 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested as of Friday’s close. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 2662 stocks are higher and 1979 lower. Updated 3/31/17 close.

Markets are closed in Australia.

Economics

March New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 590,000 from 592,000.

April Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 123.30 from 125.6.

The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close.

Politico

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, AVXS SCYX KMG HUM.

Conference of Note

American Academy of Neurology Annual Meeting

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan TEX
Goldman Sachs BHP
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch BBY
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
SunTrust RH
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies TGTX

Comments »

The Week Ahead: Could The ECB Pull The Rug Out On Thursday?

1. Geopolitical Events. On Monday Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks at 11:30 a.m. EDT. Friday Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker speaks at 2:30 p.m. EDT as does Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard at 1:15 p.m. EDT.

2. Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications, jobless claims and new home sales, consumer confidence, durable goods, Q1 GDP, Chicago PMI and Michigan Sentiment.

3. Earnings Releases. Notable releases include CNI TMUS T NVS PG PEP GOOGL MSFT XOM CVX.

Monday, April 24:

Markets will react to the results of the French Election.

Tuesday, April 25:

March New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 590,000 from 592,000.

April Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 123.30 from 125.6.

Markets are closed in Australia.

The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close.

Wednesday, April 26:

No events of note.

Thursday, April 27:

March Durable Goods are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to1.25% from 1.70%.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is out with its latest interest rate decision overnight.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is out with its latest interest rate decision at 7:45 a.m. EDT followed by a press conference at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Some expect a move from stimulus to no action.

Friday, April 28:

Q1 GDP (advanced) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 1.1% from 2.1% in Q4.

April Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 56.9 from 57.7.

April Michigan Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to remain at 98.

The risk is high for a government shutdown as a continuing budget resolution expires.

Comments »

Adding To Dr. Fly’s Comments On Retailers $RTH

I agree 100% with Dr. Fly’s comments on the shorts being caught in retail.  It is our most heavily shorted sector as well. Here is a list of the top five shorted sectors.

For each stock, we take the range of the short ratio over the last five years. Then we plot where it is and give it a % within the range. Then to calculate the range of each sector we add up the short intensity levels of all stocks within the sector and divide by the number of stocks in the sector. Effectively, an equal weighting.

Here is a list of current short squeezes that are truly short squeezes because our technical rank is very strong. Remember the key is to know which names below the shorts are constantly wrong on. These would be good long ideas. Tomorrow we will write up one or two of these names that inflict pain on the shorts.

Here is a list of stocks where the shorts are correct and COULD become squeezes if the technical rank improves. Remember the key is to know which names below the shorts are constantly wrong on. These would be good long ideas.

We note year to date all short squeezes are up 1.59% and shorts correct up 5.92% which is why hedge funds are in performance hell this year. These numbers reflect a weekly rebalance done at the end of each week.

Comments »

Morning Briefing: Florida Coastal Real Estate To Crash (Rags & Mags)

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck this week Select Energy Services (WTTR). Secondaries of note UNIT.

In After Hours Trading: AXP +.07 BHE +.08 CCK +.03 CSX +.08 QCOM +.14 STLD +.03 URI +.08.

Lower Guidance: PLXS PTC.

Mixed Guidance: BHE CCK.

Positive Guidance: IEX SLM.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +6, Dow Jones +34, NDX +19 and Russell 2000 +5.90. Asia mixed and Europe mixed.

Copper higher with silver higher and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.23% yield, one day change +2, one month change -23 and +38 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Conglomerates.

Weak Sectors Energy, Materials, Healthcare and Financials led the downside.

One month winners Utilities and Services.

Three Month Winners Consumer Goods, Utilities and Technology.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All except for Energy and Conglomerates.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): V MXIM ETFC MAT NCR MANH ASB PFPT among others.

Due Thursday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): GE SLB HON NEE STI AAL SWK COL IPG KSU MAN SHOO among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: Oil back up as Gulf producers look to extend cuts. Brexit on track with May election call< China has not fallen more than 1% in 84 sessions. ECB getting closer to ending stimulus. Kiss your Florida real estate goodbye as rising ocean levels will force lenders to stop lending./p>

NY Times: Fox (FOXA) adjusts to life after O[Reilly. Apple (AAPL) faces inquiry over content found in Chinese Apple stores. Facebook (FB) wins because of its network.

WSJ: .

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): ADS +.05 BX +.14 DOV +.48 KEY +.02 MTG +.06 PPG +.03 DGX +.15 SNA +.05 SON +.03 TRV-.22 VZ -.01.

Missing: NUE SYNT.

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: DHR DOV DGX SHW SON.

Positive Guidance: UNH.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1360 stocks rise and 1528 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1701 rise and 1119 fall.

The SP 500 is back below its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is below its 50 day moving exponential average and is above 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to cash. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 2662 stocks are higher and 1979 lower. Updated 3/31/17 close.

Economics

The March Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 21.8 from 32.8.

March Leading Indicators are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 0.20% from 0.60%.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble speaks in Washington D.C.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell speaks at 8:00 a.m. EDT.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, BX PDCE IRM.

Conference of Note

Microstrategy World 2019

Big Data Innovation Summit

FCC Meeting On Wireless Development/UHF Discount Rule

M & A News

Virtu Financial (VIRT) to KCG Financial (KCG) for $20 a share.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup RIO
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
SunTrust RH
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies
RBC
Needham
Raymond James
Piper Jaffray
Friedman Billings
Guggenheim
Stifel SBUX
Robert W. Baird PFPT MBLY

Comments »

Morning Briefing: French Elections A Coin Toss Reports Bloomberg. Really?

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck this week Select Energy Services (WTTR). Secondaries of note AGIO BOLD PLG.

In After Hours Trading: ADTN +.03 IBM +.03 IBKR -.05 ISRG +.11 LRCX +.25 RCI +.07 YHOO +.04.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: LRCX.

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +7.25, Dow Jones +34, NDX +18 and Russell 2000 +5.90. Asia mixed and Europe mixed.

Copper higher with silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.21% yield, one day change -2, one month change -29 and +43 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Conglomerates.

Weak Sectors Energy, Materials, Healthcare and Financials led the downside.

One month winners Utilities and Services.

Three Month Winners Consumer Goods, Utilities and Technology.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All except for Energy and Conglomerates.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): QCOM AXP KMI LVS CSX EBAY CP URI TMK among others.

Due Thursday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): VZ PM DHR BK ABB BX BBT TRV SHW DISH PPG KEY NUE among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: French election looks to be a coin toss as Communist backed Jean Luc Melenchon could be a spoiler. Goldman Sachs drops owning the U.S. Dollar as reflation slows. Bonds hit lowest yields since November. There are no easy solutions for President Trump on North Korea. No need to panic about Q1 consumer slump.

NY Times: Democrat failed to take a 50% victory in Georgia House Race setting in place a runoff election. Bill O’Reilly loses support of Murdochs. Trump signs Executive Order that may impact tech worker visas. IMF raises 2017 Global Outlook.

WSJ: Nacy did not send aircraft carrier towards North Korea despite Trump claims. Nightmare scenario takes place in French election.Morgan Stanley (MS) saw trading revenues jump.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): BLK +.36 MS +.10 SBNY +.38 USB +.02.

Missing: ABT GPC.

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: UNH.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1368 stocks rise and 1518 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1232 rise and 1571 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is below its 50 day moving exponential average and is above 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to cash. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 2662 stocks are higher and 1979 lower. Updated 3/31/17 close.

Economics

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

Federal Reserve releases its latest Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. EDT. Federal Reserve Boston President Eric Rosengren speaks at 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, EMES AKZOY

Conference of Note

Microstrategy World 2019

Big Data Innovation Summit

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs WRK
Morgan Stanley SIRI ENR
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup
Merrill Lynch GWR
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse GWW
Banc of America
UBS
SunTrust RH
Sanford Bernstein
Jefferies ETE
RBC
Needham
Raymond James TPX

Comments »

Morning Briefing Sees 4 IPOs Today (To Infinity & Beyond For These Names)

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck today Cadence Bancorp (CADE), Warrior Met Coal LLC (HCC), Tocagen (TOCA), Yext (YEXT). Secondaries of note AEHR AGRO SRNE TWNK.

In After Hours Trading: DTEA -.12 PIR +.01.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What’s Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P -6, Dow Jones -31, NDX -12 and Russell 2000 -2.90. Asia lower ex China and Europe lower.

Copper,silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 2.23% yield, one day change -7, one month change -40 and +46 one year change. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Utilities.

Weak Sectors All others.

One month winners All ex Healthcare and Financials.

Three Month Winners Consumer Goods, Utilities and Technology.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Industrial Goods, Financials, Energy and Materials.

One Year Winners Energy, Materials, Industrial Goods and Utilities.

Year To Date All except for Energy and Conglomerates.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): none of note.

Due Friday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): none of note.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Bloomberg: Trumps gave an interview to The Wall Street Journal and called for a lower dollar, keeping Yellen, noted China is not a currency manipulator and wants to keep rates low. Geopolitical pressures over North Korea remain high.

NY Times: U.S. pressures Russia while Trump warms up to NATO. United Airlines (UAL) still trying to fix mess after man dragged from airplane.

WSJ: President Trump seeks to build alliance over North Korea. President Trump threatens Democrats to withhold oayments to insurers tied to ACA.

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): CBSH +.03 INFY +.05 JPM +.12 PNC +.13 YGE +.13.

Missing: .

Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 923 stocks rise and 1990 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 869 rise and 1941 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day exponential moving average and above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is below its 50 day moving exponential average and is above 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to cash. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested since November 18th.

YTD 2662 stocks are higher and 1979 lower. Updated 3/31/17 close.

Economics

March CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0% from 0.1%.

March Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to drop to 0% from 0.1%.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

Congress is off for Easter Recess.Markets traditionally do well in such periods.

Trump Schedule 10:30 a.m. Daily Intelligence Briefing, 11:00 a.m. signs repeal of Planned Parenthood funding, 2:00 p.m. meets with I-85 Bridge first resposnders, 3:45 leaves for Palm Beach and 6:45 arrives Palm Beach.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, none of note.

Conference of Note

Oracle HCM World 2017

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan
Goldman Sachs WFT
Morgan Stanley
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup NTDOY
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse
Banc of America
UBS
SunTrust RH CTSH SEAS SIX

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Getting Oversold

Given that the market is in a narrow range, it is very easy to get overbought or oversold. My oversold indicator is now at 32 on SPY. Once under 30 it is oversold.

We wait to buy when it moves back above 30. Why? Because there is good and bad oversold. Bad oversold is dropping below 30 and staying there. Good oversold is a quick drop under 30 and then a bounce back above.

Yesterday I noticed the most active ETF to trade was VXX.

Also, the top 7 option contracts to trade were VIX related, either calls or puts. The top four were all calls.

Boys and girls this sets up for a nice rip your face off move up to 2400. Tax selling is now complete . Can we rally from here? Yes. Will we rally from here or a bit lower? That is the $64,000 question but it seems a good time to start nibbling.

 

 

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