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How To Avoid Getting Clipped In Stocks Like GTAT

At Erlanger Research, we use a really simple indicator to determine the bias. Bias tells us whether we want to be long or short. If the bias is positive, then we do not short. If the bias is negative, then we do not buy.

It is really that simple. Unfortunately, humans have a widget in the back of their head telling to them to try and catch a bottom or top. There is no need to do that if you have the power of the Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel we use to set the bias. The DMA Channel can be found in our software as well as on Bloomberg and NinjaTrader.

In the case of GTAT, the stock has not been able to move above its monthly DMA Channel. We are a buyer when we close the month above the DMA Channel and a seller when we close the month below the DMA Channel.

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We have a buy signal that made 67.56% and the current sell has made 66.70% on the short side for a combined return of 134.26% . The software for this chart can be found at www.erlangerchartroom.com and www.goodmorningwallst.com. We offer both individual and institutional version as well as real time via eSignal and Bloomberg.

There is one big caveat to the DMA Monthly Channel. It does not do a good job on stocks with low beta. Betas above 1 it works fine. Ultimately, bias needs to be used in conjunction with setup and trigger indicators. Our setup indicators include short interest, options and seasonal trends. Triggers are technical indicators that help on the timing of the trade. The use of bias, setups and triggers is a must for any trader.

 

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Lower

In After Hours Trading

BMI (-.30) CSX (+.05) INTC (IN LINE) IBKR (-.09) LLTC (+.02) MRTN (+.05) URI (-.30) YHOO (+.13). 

Several IPOs are due Blackhawk Network, Fairway Group, Hannon Armstrong Sustainable, Intelsat Global Holdings, SeaWorld Entertainment and Taminco Chemical.Secondary offerings none of note. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -12, Dow Jones -100, NDX -23.00 with fair value higher, which will hurt the opening even more) Asia lower ex Japan and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield -0.0172. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close EBAY AXP KMP SNDK SLM EPB NE CCK ALB EWBC STLD CVA LHO CYS CNS SCSS AF. Earnings due tomorrow morning among others PM VZ PEP TSM UNP UNH MS DHR BAX FCX BBT PG SHW OMC FITB NUE NOK APH BX KEY.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

ASML (+.03) BAC (-.02) BK (-.02) DOV (+.01) HBAN (+.01) MAT (+.03) PNC (+.21) DGX (-.15) TXT (-.05) WNS (+.01).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2494 stocks rise and 542 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1923 risee and 555 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 broke back below its 50 day moving average on Monday. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but above -200. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee releases its latest Beige Book survey. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) releases its Global Financial Stability Report.

 

Weekly Crude Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

Federal Reserve St. Louis President Bullard speak about unemployment in New York City. Also Federal Reserve Governor Stein and Federal Reserve Boston President Rosengren speak today.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. CIBC Energy Conference.

Conference of Note

World Vaccine Congress & Expo.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup OC  
Merrill Lynch YHOO  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse   POM

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How Much Of A Pullback Ahead?

How much of a pullback can we expect? We look to our retracement tool to give us a sense of how much of a pullback we can expect.

[Image 1]

A retracemen is drawn from a low to a high. In the chart above, we have drawn the line from both the December low and November low. At a minimum, we now can expect a 38% pullback to 1521.24 or 1501.70.

A more realistic number is a 50% pullback, which is either 1497.73 or 1471.40.

The S&P 500 peaked at 1593.37 so a 5% pullback would take us to 1513.68 which is between the two 38% pullbacks.

A 10% pullback would take us to 1434.03. This would take us slightly beyond the 61.8% retracement levels that are 1474.22 and 1441.23.

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

BRO (+.02) PBY (-.32) PNFP (+.06) STLY (-.04). 

Several IPOs are due Blackhawk Network, Fairway Group, Hannon Armstrong Sustainable, Intelsat Global Holdings, SeaWorld Entertainment and Taminco Chemical.Secondary offerings none of note. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +12.25, Dow Jones +108, NDX +23.500 with fair value higher, which will hurt the opening but still a positive one) Asia lower ex Shanghai and Europe lower. Copper and gold higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0452. Prices as of 8:00 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close INTC YHOO CSX LLTC URI FULT CATY IBKR BMI MRTN. Earnings due tomorrow morning BAC ABT PNC ASML MAT DOV STJ DGX TXT HBAN among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

BLK (+.05) KO (+.01) CMA (+.02) NTRS (-.01) WAFD (+.01) WWW (+.26).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 376 stocks rise and 2683 on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 277 risee and 2245 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 broke back below its 50 day moving average on Monday. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now negative but above -200. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

March CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to drop to 0.0% from 0.7%. March Housing Starts are due at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to rise to 930,000 from 917,000. Then at 9:15 a.m. EDT March Industrial Production is due out and is seen dropping to 0.2% from 0.8%.

Politico

Federal Reserve New York President Dudley will speak about the economy in New York City. Also on Tuesday Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Janet Yellen will speak on monetary policy before the IMF.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. IPAA OGIS New York Conference. CIBC Energy Conference.

Conference of Note

World Vaccine Congress & Expo.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan   CHRW
Goldman Sachs MRIN  
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup OC NKA
Merrill Lynch DCT TCP
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James    
ING Group AKZOY  
Jefferies SRCL  
KeyBanc Capital    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey HZO  

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Taking Gains On CMG Recommendation

We are taking gains on CMG in front of earnings this week.  The stock has had a good run and hedgies David Einhorn and Jeffrey Gundlach are targeting this as a short. We do not like high profile stocks and this is going high profile. We will be locking in our Morning Matters portfolio as well which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

SYMBOL SIGNAL DATE ENTRY CURRENT P/L % CHANGE CLOSE
CMG LONG 12/18/2012  $  288.01  $  346.14  $    58.13 20.18% Close
TASR LONG 12/17/2012  $       7.67  $       7.92  $       0.25 3.26%
ABFS LONG 1/28/2013  $    11.04  $    10.78  $    (0.26) -2.36%
21.09%
SWHC SHORT 12/17/2012  $       9.26 8.70  $       0.56 6.05%
RGR SHORT 12/17/2012  $    46.40 48.90  $    (2.50) -5.39%
FXI SHORT 3/4/2013  $    37.71 35.35  $       2.36 6.26%
6.92%
Closed
P LONG 12/4/2013  $       8.91  $    11.74  $       2.83 31.76% 2/1/2013
AMD LONG 12/10/2012  $       2.35  $       2.52  $       0.17 7.23% 3/27/2013
NSC LONG 1/4/2013  $    65.25  $    75.39  $    10.14 15.54% 4/3/2013
54.54%

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Daily P/Laybook

In After Hours Trading

No earnings Friday after the close of note. 

Several IPOs are due Blackhawk Network, Fairway Group, Hannon Armstrong Sustainable, Intelsat Global Holdings, SeaWorld Entertainment and Taminco Chemical.Secondary offerings none of note. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -6.50, Dow Jones -42, NDX -10.80 with fair value higher, which will hurt the opening) Asia lower and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield -0.0137. Prices as of 8:00 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close BRO PNFP PBY STLY. Earnings due tomorrow morning JNJ KO GS USB BLK GWW NTRS AMTD CMA MMR WWW HTLD among others.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

C (+.12) LAYN (-.12).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1154 stocks rise and 1806 on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1006 risee and 1473 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 broke back above its 50 day moving average on Monday. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Releases of note this week include weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims along with CPI, housing starts, industrial production, leading indicators and the Philly Fed Survey.

Politico

Minutes are due from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monday night.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings none of note. IPAA OGIS New York Conference. Supreme Court of hear MYGN gene patent issue.

Conference of Note

M & A News

TMO to buy LIFE for $75 a share. DISH extends bid for S, $4.76 cash and 0.05953 share of DISH per share)

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley   VAR FCX
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup XRAY HMY
Merrill Lynch    
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James    
Societe Generale    
Jefferies    
KeyBanc Capital    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey AVIV  
Raymond James    
Credit Agricole    
Dahlman Rose    
Keefe Bruyette    
Friedman Billings    
Robert W. Baird    
Needham TTPH  

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Lower

In After Hours Trading

JBHT (-.03). 

Several IPOs are due Evertec and Rally Software are due today and CSTE CHUY CACC CUI DRTX LTD will price secondary offerings. Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P -5.00, Dow Jones -38, NDX -11.80 with fair value a bit higher, which will hurt the opening slightly) Asia lower and Europe lower. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield -0.047. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

No earnings due after the close. Enjoy the weekend its Miller Time.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

JPM (+.20) WFC (+.09).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1849 stocks rise and 1160 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1188 rise and 1236 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 broke back above its 50 day moving average on Monday. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

March PPI and retail sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to drop to -0.2% from 0.7% and 0% from 1.1%. Then at 9:55 a.m. EDT April Michigan Sentiment is due and is expected to rise to 78.8 fro 78.6.

Politico

EU Finance Ministers meet in Dublin, Ireland with Cyprus as the lead topic.

 

Federal Reserve Boston President Rosengren speaks before the market opens. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke speaks at 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings IMGN.

Conference of Note

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan   BAESY
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch   MPW
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James    
Societe Generale    
Jefferies    
KeyBanc Capital    
Sun Trust Robinson Humphrey KRA  
Raymond James PL  
Credit Agricole    
Dahlman Rose    
Keefe Bruyette    
Friedman Billings    
Robert W. Baird    
Needham NMRX  

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Update On High Beta Versus Low Beta & The Russell 2000 Versus S&P 500

Our tracking of High Beta to Low Volatility and Large Cap to Small Cap shows both High Beta and Small Cap lagging a week later after our initial post here.  We noted lat week, “If this trend continues, then it is almost a guarantee of a correction.” We continue to believe that. The market is being lead by the mega caps.

We track the Powershares S&P High Beta (SPHB) versus Powershares S&P Low Volatility (SPLV). SPHB is down on an absolute and relative basis since mid March. The same is true of the Russell 2000 versus the S&P 500.

 sphb

iwm

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Daily P/Laybook Futures Mixed

In After Hours Trading

APOG (-.02) RELL (-.02).

 Several IPOs are due KNOT Offshore Partners LP and Taylor Morrison Home Corp are due today and RSO will price a secondary offering.Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +0.25, Dow Jones +6, NDX -6.80 with fair value a bit lower, which will help the opening slightly) Asia higher ex Shanghai and Europe higher. Copper lower and gold slightly higher with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0047. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Reports due after the close . Due tomorrow morning .

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

CBSH (-.01) IGTE (+.09) RAD (+.12) LEDS (+.05).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2287 stocks rise and 730 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1982 rise and 528 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 broke back above its 50 day moving average on Monday. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Plosser and Federal Reserve Saint Louis President Bullard speak.   Weekly Jobless Claims due at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico

G-8 Ministers continue a two day meeting in London.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings AYR SNTS NVDA. Sun Trust Utica Shale Mini Conference, Bank of America Merrill lynch Testing, Inspection Certification and Assurance Conference and World Copper Conference.

Conference of Note

National Space Symposium.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs DGX SIAL MSFT
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup   LNVGY
Merrill Lynch    
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James    
Societe Generale   IAG

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Daily P/Laybook Fututes Higher But Off Peak

In After Hours Trading

ADTN (+.06) HCSG (+.02) PSMT (+.82) SEAC (+.09).

 Several IPOs  KNOT Offshore Partners LP and Taylor Morrison Home Corp are due today and RSO will price a secondary offering.Courtesy of www.ipofinancialreport.com.

What’s Happening This Morning

US futures: (S&P +4.25, Dow Jones +41, NDX +9.50 with fair value a bit lower, which will help the opening slightly) Asia higher ex Shanghai and Europe higher. Copper and gold lower with WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury Yield +0.0102. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EST.

Earnings Expected

Reports due after the close BBBY VECO RH APOG RT AVID RELL DRWI. Due tomorrow morning CBSH PIR RAD IGTE SMRT LEDS.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

We are big fans of www.247wallst.com summary of the newspapers each day. Going forward we will link to their website so you can read their summary, Media Digest

Reported Earnings This Morning

FDO (-.01) TITN (-.19).

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1735 stocks rise and 1248 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1192 rise and 1174 fall. The S&P 500 is above its 50 day moving average and above the 200 day moving average. The Russell 2000 broke its 50 day moving average yesterday. The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is positive. We moved to cash on the Madison Market Timing Indicator on February 22nd which can be found on www.superstockinvestor.com.

 

Economics

Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher speak on economic and monetary policy and Federal Reserve Atlanta President Lockhart as well as Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Kocherlakota.

 

FOMC Minutes released at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

Politico

G-8 Ministers begin a two day meeting in London. President Obama sends his delayed budget plan to Congress for fiscal year 2014.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst meetings IHS CVX. Bank of America Online Gaming Symposium, Jefferies Steel & Metals Summit and World Copper Conference.

Conference of Note

National Space Symposium.

M & A News

TMO to make a bid for LIFE at $65 a share.

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs ABC ARO OKS
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup ESYJY  
Merrill Lynch STWD  
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
UBS    
Raymond James   PCCC

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