Every once in a while I like to look back on what I have written over the past couple of months to see how things are playing out. So here is a quick summary and some new thoughts.
1.On September 30th, I noted that I thought Carter Worth’s comments would mark a low in the price of Deutsche Bank (DB). He was calling for it to go to $0 on the 29th when it closed at $11.48. DB closed at $13.09 and is now at $13.43. I expect it to see $15 in short order. So Carter is indeed worthless. Why do I mention this today? Because he is trash talking the market this afternoon on CNBC. It is a guarantee we go higher from here.
2.On September 27th, I noted that the selling in the overall market, S&P 500 would stop. SPY closed at $215.57. It ran to a high of $216.16 before the recent pullback to $213.12. We are getting close to the bottom of this down move when I review my various models. More on this early next week. Do not worry the world is not going to end.
3.On September 19th we noted that playing a short squeeze just to play a short squeeze is just a dumb idea. Witness Novavax (NVAX) that fell from $8.34 to $1.29. Rather play short squeezes where the shorts lose money time and again. On October 5th, Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) fell from $70.30 to $36.21. Many had played this as a short squeeze without looking to see that the shorts did a good job of making money on this name.
4.On September 9th, we noted not to panic. The market bottomed on September 14th rising 2.36% by September 22nd.
1.A Hillary Clinton presidency is a good, not a bad thing. Why? If you read her Wikileaks emails, she is much more moderate than the liberals want. If you are a Republican, like I am, who cannot stomach Trump, then this is a welcome relief. If you are a liberal and upset, then are you going to vote for Trump? I do not think so.
You may not like Hillary but she will be fine because her husband was the last Republican President once he went to the center in the mid terms of his first term. Remember Slick Willie passed the biggest tax cut in U.S. history, the exemption on capital gains for selling a house, $250,000 if single and $500,000 if married. President George W. Bush was a Keynesian, just like his father who never believed in Supply Side Economics, and let the deficit balloon so he was not a Republican.
2.The lunar cycle peaks tomorrow and markets could rally next week as we also have a options expiration. October options expiration from 2005 have seen 7 weeks moving higher and 4 weeks moving lower. Losing years were 2005,2007, 2008 and 2014. Clearly, 2007 and 2008 were driven by market meltdowns. So effectively only 2005 and 2014 were losing weeks unrelated to market conditions. The S&P 500 has been lower for the past two weeks so a rebound is not out of the question and is to be expected. More on the pin action over the weekend.
Enjoy the weekend, a Badger victory over Urban Meyer and the Hunter’s Moon!
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