Each day I put together key inputs that will influence the trading. If you do not do this and you trade, then you are a fool playing a fool’s game. Countless players know these inputs and are ready to pounce. So the question you need to ask yourself is are you a lamb competing against a pack of wolves?
March 16, 2016
In After Hours Trading
IPOs on deck this week Spring Bank Pharmaceuticals. Secondaries on deck CONE NUAN NXPI SENH.
In After Hours Trading: ORCL +.02.
Lower Guidance: FOGO.
What’s Happening This Morning
U.S. futures: S&P -1.50, Dow Jones -9, NDX +0.25 and Russell 2000 -2 with fair value higher hurting gains. Asia and Europe mixed.
Copper, silver and gold higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield at 1.96% yield +3, one month change +19 and -11 one year change. Prices as of 7:50 a.m. EDT.
Top Sectors None of note.
Weak Sectors Healthcare, Basic Materials and Financials.
One month winners Conglomerates, Basic Materials , Industrials, Services and Financials.
Three Month Winners Utilities.
Six Month Winners Utilities, Technology, Industrial Goods and Consumer Services.
One Year Winners Utilities.
Year To Date Utilities, Conglomerates.
Earnings Expected
Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): FDX CTRP SLW WSM QUNR JBL GES HMIN MLHR JMEI.
Due Thursday morning (by avg. trade volume descending): LEN MIK IGT VNCE.
Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street
Bloomberg: Fed Day and some economists expect a rate change. Trump and Clinton assert themselves in yesterday’s primaries. OPEC and non-OPEC set April 17th as meeting date in Doha on production caps.
Reported Earnings This Morning
Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): RTK -.40.
Lower Guidance: none of note.
Current Morning missing: ATU ARCO CMCM.
Data Points
Yesterday saw 786 stocks rise and 2255 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 707 rise and 2113 fall.
The SP 500 is back above its 50 day exponential moving average but now above the 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is back above its 50 day moving exponential average and still below its 200 day exponential moving average.
The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is back to invested. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is still invested.
YTD 3075 stocks are higher for 2016 and 3351 are lower. Updated 3/4/16 Close.
Economics
February CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to -0.2% from 0%.
Also at 8:30 a.m. EDT, February Housing Starts is expected to rise to 1.15 million from 1.10 million.
At 9:15 a.m. EDT, February Industrial Production should fall to -0.3% from 0.9%.
Politico
The FOMC announces its latest interest rate decision at 2:00 p.m. EDT. A press conference with Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will occur at 2:30 p.m. EDT.
Bank of Japan minutes due overnight out at 6:00 p.m. EDT.
Conference & Analyst Meetings
Meetings or announcements of note EXPE CALX SCOR ARRS. Roth Conference. Citigroup Global Property CEO Conference. Barclays Global Healthcare Conference. Bank of America Merrill Lynch Consumer & Retail Tech Conference. Bank of America Global Industrial Conference.
Conference of Note
South By Southwest.
M & A News
Key Upgrades and Downgrades
| Firm | Upgrades | Downgrades |
|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | GLOG | |
| Goldman Sachs | ||
| Morgan Stanley | GPS | |
| Deutsche Bank | ||
| Citigroup | ||
| Merrill Lynch | ||
| Wachovia/Wells Fargo | ||
| Credit Suisse | MJN LM | |
| Banc of America | ||
| UBS | ||
| Stifel | ||
| Sterne Agee | ||
| Jefferies | ||
| Piper Jaffray | ||
| Needham | ||
| Raymond James | ||
| Credit Agricole | ||
| Friedman Billings | ||
| RBC | ||
| Maxim | CMG |
100% agree
As always – solid work man