We are now two days from the beginning of meteorological autumn (September 1) and two weeks away from the peak of hurricane season (September 14). And it will feel like both this week…
Temperatures: Let’s Screw Over Natural Gas
Temperatures will be abnormally cool for nearly the entire country this week. Frost advisories are in place for most of northern Michigan and Minnesota, and these may spread to northern New York and Maine later this week. Highs in the big cities of the Northeast will be lucky to reach the upper 70s, with the Southeast not doing much better. You will likely notice that “nip” in the air associated with Fall, each morning heading to work. Basically, it will be pleasant. A map of the total cooling degree days is shown in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Total Cooling Degree Days for the upcoming week
Cooling demand will plunge again this week across the eastern half of the country, with most areas east of the Rockies falling by at least 40 CDDs. This is in addition to last week’s 40+ CDD plunge. Two-week CDD drops across parts of the Midwest have exceeded 100 CDDs. A map of week-over-week CDDs is shown below in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Week-over-week change in Cooling Degree Days. Ouch.
This is more bad news for the natural gas market. I project this week to accumulate 4001 population-weighted CDDs, or 27.7% fewer than last week. By my temperature-based model, this would correspond to an injection of 105 BCF for the EIA storage report to be released September 10, 2009. This would be above both the 5-year average of 82 BCF and last year’s 58 BCF (skewed by Hurricane Gustav). However, I strongly doubt we will see such a deep injection. With 3200 BCF already in storage, concerns are running high about exceeding the predicted capacity of about 4000 BCF in October, and an injection over 100 BCF would be devastating. Thus, I expect that producers will begin capping wells with authority as this forecast becomes clearer. I expect an injection closer to the average of ~85 BCF as a result. Regardless, this is really the last thing that the natural gas industry needs to hear right now… There is blood is in the streets.
For the upcoming storage report to be released this Thursday (covering last week), I project an injection of 74 BCF, above the average of 67 BCF, but below last year’s mark of 90 BCF.
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The Tropics: Dr. Cane goes 3-for-3
The tropics are very active in all of the ocean basins, except for the Atlantic…yet. The dearth of good Deacons of Death was beginning to annoy me, so this past Friday I went up to commune with the Weather Gods and ask what the deal was. I was told in no uncertain terms to “have some F&%^ing patience already” as the Pearly Gates were slammed in my face. Based on the current picture, I guess “patience” meant about 48 hours…
In my post last weekend, I mentioned 3 areas—one north of Puerto Rico, one in the Southern Caribbean, and one off Africa—that had a chance to develop over the upcoming week. Well, all three did, in a manner of speaking.
1. Tropical storm Danny formed east of the Bahamas on Tuesday and moved slowly up the east coast. A poorly defined system for most of its Tropical Life, Danny was significantly stronger in his Extratropical form, dumping prodigous rainfall over eastern New England and bringing winds gusting to 50 mph along the coast. The storm is now heading out to sea east of Canada.
2. A wave that moved off of Africa last week took its time, but has now developed a strong spin and substantial convection around its center, and will likely be TD #6 and then TS Erika in the next 48 hours. Frankly, the system already looks to be nearing tropical depression-strength to me, and will probably be declared as such tonight or tomorrow. Overall, I give the system a 70% chance of becoming TS Erika in the next 48 hours. A satellite image of the system is shown below.
Figure 3: Infrared satellite of Proto-Erika
The track is very interesting for proto-Erika. As it interacts with the southern end of the strong trough that absorbed Danny, the wave will make a turn to the northwest that may take it north of the Leeward Islands. However, as this trough passes and high pressure builds in, Erika may be forced back to the west for a time. Depending on how far north it gets and how long it bends back to the west will determine its threat to either the Gulf or East coast. A tracking map is shown below in Figure 4.
Figure 4: Tracking map for proto-Erika showning a turn to the northwest followed by a potential bend back to the west
As for the intensity forecast, conditions are modestly favorable for intensification, and several of the computer models take the system to hurricane strength in 3-4 days. However, just north of the Antilles is a very strong band of wind shear. If Erika wants to have a chance, it will need to stay south of this band. Proto-Erika probably has the best shot at being a “Deacon(ess) of Death” of any storm we’ve seen so far in 2009, but it is far too early to determine if it will reach the Gulf, or even affect land.
3.The threat area I mentioned in the southern Caribbean last week didn’t actually develop in the Atlantic, but crossed over Central America into the East Pacific where it is now the extremely powerful and dangerous Hurricane Jimena. I won’t usually bother discussing the EPAC, but this is an exception. Jimena spun up to a powerful 135 mph category 4 storm in under 48 hours and could possibly reach category 5 strength. A satellite image below shows a nearly perfect storm.
Figure 5: 135 mph Hurricane Jimena off the coast of Mexico, and weakling TS Kevin to the west.
Computer models indicate Jimena will move NW to NNW over the next few days and approach Baja California or the west coast of Mexico as a category 4 storm and make landfall as a cat 2 or cat 3. Hurricane watches will likely be required for parts of Mexico by this evening. A tracking map is shown below in Figure 6.
Figure 6: Projected path of Hurricane Jimena
All areas of western Mexico should closely monitor Jimena. Additionally, it is likely that moisture from Jimena will make it to the Desert Southwest or western Texas where it will enhance the summer Monsoon and lead to the threat of flash flooding.
Finally, Tropical Storm Krovanh is set to make landfall near Tokyo today as a modest tropical storm, one day after presidential elections. Quite the favorable omen there.
4 Year Anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
Four years ago yesterday, Hurricane Katrina made its final landfall in the early morning hours just east of New Orleans. We all know the tragic story that unfolded from there…
Below is the most vividly worded Tropical Weather Discussion that the National Hurricane Center has ever published, written when Katrina was a 175 mph category 5 storm south of New Orleans…And most of it came true…
———————————————————–
000
WWUS74 KLIX 281550
NPWLIX
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES
AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!
-----------------------------------------------------------
Note I: DPeezy is hosting an iBC fantasy football league, with the draft coming up next Monday at 7pm. Seeing as fantasy football is the greatest thing since sliced bread, everybody should join up.
Note II: With the hurricane season heating up, Dr. Cane is now on Twitter as DrCane09 since this is often a faster way to provide updates as things quickly change. FOLLOW ME for regular updates regarding the Tropics, Trading, and misc other weather stuff.
Note III: Major Karma Points to the first person to correctly identify the storm shown at the top. This is going to be a common theme of posts for the foreseeable future. A small hurricane warning flag will be awarded to the individual with the most points at the conclusion of the hurricane season, provided that they have at least 12.
DPeezy on a roll. Somebody step up and stop him…
1. DPeezy-13
1. Wabisabi-10
3. TraderCaddy-4
4. Yogi and Boo Boo-3
5. Jim-1
6. BuffaloUdders-1
Disclaimer: Forecasts and Opinions are my own and are subject to error. Please rely on official National Weather Service forecasts.
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Welcome to autumn everybody, a time of crisp, cool mornings, golden foliage, raking/jumping in leaves with your kids/siblings, Sunday afternoon football…and crappy natural gas injections.
Image Source: Bill Patterson
Figure 1: Projected Cooling Degree Days for the week ahead
Figure 3: Projected Heating Degree Days for the Upcoming Week
Figure 3: Comparison between US NG consumption versus production
Figure 1: Infrared satellite showing a rapidly developing TD #7 (image: wunderground.com)
