A tropical wave south of the Cape Verde Islands has gained enough organization to be classified as Tropical Depression #7 by the national hurricane center, and will likely become TS Fred later this evening or tomorrow morning. The satellite image below shows a classic developing Cape Verde storm, with the beginnings of spiral banding and a tight inner core structure.
Figure 1: Infrared satellite showing a rapidly developing TD #7 (image: wunderground.com)
Like his other 2009 breathren, it does not appear Fred will be a threat to land and will likely be a “Fish Storm”–only a threat to the open ocean. A series of strong troughs are expected to turn Fred northwestward and then northward over the next 72 hours. It is possible that the first trough may miss the storm causing it to temporarily turn back the west, before a second trough finishes the job. Before this turn, it is possible that Fred may reach minimal hurrican strength. A tracking map is shown below in Figure 1.
Figure 2: Tracking map for TD #7 “proto-Fred”
Overall, I give Fred a 15% of ever affecting land as a tropical system and a 0.000001% of reaching the Gulf of Mexico. Sorry guys. “Deacons of Death” are in short supply this year, it seems…
As Fred is in the middle of nowhere and is unlikely to be a threat to land, perhaps his most interesting feature is his name. The name “Fred” is in its first cycle of usage (hurricane names repeat every six years), having been chosen as a substitute for “Fabian”, which made a direct hit on Bermuda as a Cat 3 storm in 2003 and was subsequently retired. I’m a little bit surprised the NHC decided to go with this name as it is merely a shortened form of “Frederick.” Hurricane Frederick struck the Gulf Coast in 1979 as a category 3 storm, doing $7 Billion in damage, the costliest hurricane ever, until Hugo in 1989. The name “Frederick” was obviously immediately retired. I’m surprised that the NHC would choose a name so similar, especially with a wide array of unusual names like “Rina” (2011) and Isaias (2014) that they seem so fond of these days. It’s like naming a storm “Andy” or “Kat.”
Elsewhere in the tropics, a few models are suggesting a disorganized area of thunderstorms currently in the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico may develop an associated low pressure area over the next few days. This system would track north, very close to the Mexico, and then Texas, coastline. While such a system could be a threat to rigs, it will not be under ideal atmospheric conditions and does not appear to be a threat to become a very strong storm, if it even develops.
The Eastern seaboard can expect a very wet and dreary week as a strong non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to move very slowly northward just offshore. Parts of the southern mid-Atlantic are already under flood watches, with computer models indicating some areas may pick up in excess of 5 inches of rain. The whole mess should reach New York/Philadelphia by Wednesday and could hang around through the beginning of the weekend. Welcome to September, folks.
Note I: With the hurricane season heating up, Dr. Cane is now on Twitter as DrCane09 since this is often a faster way to provide updates as things quickly change. FOLLOW ME for regular updates regarding the Tropics, Trading, and misc other weather stuff.
Note II: Major Karma Points to the first person to correctly identify the storm shown at the top. This is going to be a common theme of posts for the foreseeable future. A small hurricane warning flag will be awarded to the individual with the most points at the conclusion of the hurricane season, provided that they have at least 12.
I picked this storm for a reason…
1. DPeezy-15
1. Wabisabi-11
3. TraderCaddy-4
4. Yogi and Boo Boo-3
5. Jim-1
6. BuffaloUdders-1
Disclaimer: Forecasts and Opinions are my own and are subject to error. Please rely on official National Weather Service forecasts.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Jeanne
Nope…not Jeane. Good guess….very very subtle clues that its probably not Jeanne….
UPDATE: As anticipated, TD 7 has been upgraded to TS Fred as of the 11pm advisory. No changes to the track.
Hurricane Wilma 2005
Wild guess. Isidore.
Sorry for the delay…It is Hurricane Wilma from 2005 and Buffaloudders picks up another point. I picked the storm to complement Fred…i.e. Fred and Wilma from the Flintstones. At the time of this satellite image, Wilma was a category 3 storm with a 50 mile-wide eye over West Palm Beach and was racing to the northeast having crossed the southern Florida peninsula in only 2 hours.
This site in south Florida has been a popular landfall site for hurricanes in the last decade (i.e. Jeanne ’04, Frances ’04, etc). What distinguishes this satellite image from those others is the presence of stratocumulus clouds over the Gulf of Mexico. These are the roll-like clouds that can be seen in the far left of the picture and are indicative of very stable air. They arise when the ocean temperature is much warmer than the atmosphere. Since the liquid ocean cools much slower than the air (it has a higher heat capacity), these are often seen in the late Fall and early Winter. Wilma occurred in October (this can be surmised by its position in the alphabet…), which fits the scenario…