The Meteorological Week Ahead: The Hammer Drops

It’s time for summer to meet it maker. While there have been isolated hints of autumn across the United States since early September, the hammer will finally drop this week, ushering in Fall across the entire country. The resultant marked increase in Heating Degree Days will likely mark the beginning of the Natural Gas Heating Season, with net injections dropping off precipitously in the coming weeks.

Nearly the entire nation will be cooler than last week and generally below average for this time of year. A strong Cold Front will pass through Chicago and the upper Midwest tonight, and off the Eastern Seaboard by Monday night. The decidedly Canadian airmass flowing in behind the front will bring brisk northwest winds and a crisp bite to the air. Daily temperatures east of the Rockies in the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic will average 10-15 degrees below average with highs in the 50s and low 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

The West Coast will see below average temperatures as well as a trough of low pressure and an offshore area of high pressure will bring much cooler weather to areas of the Valley of California that were near 100 last week. Total Cooling Degree Days are shown below in Figure 1 for this week.

Figure 1: Forecast Total Cooling Degree Days for Sept. 27-Oct. 2

CDDs are restricted to the Gulf Coast states and the warmer parts of the Desert Southwest. With the exception of some warmth in Texas, this pattern resembles the winter range of CDDs. From now on, cooling demand will contribute only minimally to total energy demand.

Total Heating Degree Days are shown below in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Forecast Total Heating Degree Days for Sept. 27-Oct 2

Heating degree days will surge this week, with noted increases in the northern Great Plains states of Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The population density of these states is generally small and thus will only modestly affect the total heating demand. However, similar heating demand will be seen across the more densely populated Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. While the major cities will generally see less than 50 HDDs for this upcoming 6-day week, the secondary cities of the interior, including Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Albany, Hartford, and Bangor will approach 100 HDDs.

Numerically, the nation can expect to see 4159 total population-weighted Degree Days (HDDs + CDDs), or 6.1% fewer than last week due to the rapidly retreating warmth. However, while Heating Degree Days made up just 7.1% of total degree days last week, they will make up 58.7% this week! This represents a 678% week-over-week increase in Heating Degree days. This data is shown below in Table 1.

Table 1: Numerical Degree day Data

	Last Week	This Week	% change
CDDs	4115	1714	-58.3%
HDDs	314	2445	+678.7%
Total	4429	4159	-6.1%

Despite the net 6.1% decrease in degree days, the marked increase in HDDs will result in increased NG consumption as a heating degree day carries a slightly higher energy demand than a cooling degree day. I project that we will see a 56 BCF injection for the EIA storage report to be released October 9. This compares to a five year-average of +64 BCF. Historically, the first net withdrawal occurs the second week in November. I believe that we will see our first withdrawal at least a week early this year, due to the prospect of cooler temperatures and cuts in production and drilling.

In conclusion, Fall is here, and here to stay. Based on this week, it seems we will have a rather cool going of it, although not as rough as these guys are predicting…

watch?v=siM6CPniUgU&feature=related

The Tropics

The National Weather Service classified an area of low pressure off the coast of Africa as Tropical Depression #8 Friday afternoon. Advisories were discontinued 24 hours later as the system was torn apart by shear. Personally, I didn’t really agree with the classification and don’t believe it ever reached TD status. Regardless, former TD-8 has continued to weaken and will not threaten any landmass.

Elsewhere in the tropics, it’s the same old story: high wind shear. There are no areas of concern in the Atlantic and I give only a 30% chance of seeing a named system this week. One of the models is forecasting development off of Africa by next weekend, but this late in the season such a storm would not likely affect land.

We are rapidly winding down the hurricane season, especially for the United States, as seen below in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Hurricane Frequency

You will notice that there is a small secondary peak in mid-October. This is due to an increase in cyclones forming in the western Caribbean. These storms do not usually affect the United States due to the climatologically unfavorable conditions in the northern Gulf of Mexico by that time. However, south Florida is still affected on occasion (i.e. Hurricane Wilma, 2005).

On a more unfortunate note, tropical storm Ketsana crawled through the Philippines as a modest tropical storm, bringing historic rainfall to the capital city of Manila. The airport received 16.7 inches of rain in just 12 hours, an all-time record. Thus far, Ketsana is responsible for at least 105 deaths and has left 250,000 people homeless. This toll will likely climb higher. Ketsana has continued to strengthen and will likely hit Vietnam as a minimal typhoon on Tuesday. The latest satellite image of Ketsana is shown below in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Tropial Storm Ketsana in the South China Sea

My term as a tagged blogger on iBC concludes this Wednesday, 9/30. I will have a post Monday or Tuesday giving my winter 2009-2010 outlook and its implications for the energy markets. I will have a concluding, but content-heavy post on Wednesday.

Note I: Dr. Cane is now on Twitter as DrCane09 since this is often a faster way to provide updates as things quickly change. FOLLOW ME for regular updates regarding the Tropics, Trading, and misc other weather stuff.

Note II: The Hurricane Naming Contest is on the homestretch with the season finale coinciding with the end of the MLB season September 30. Current leaders are shown below.

DPeezy clinches, but JimmyHill is on a roll…

Rankings 9/20/09

	Points	Points Back	Days to Elimination
1. DPeezy	16	–	–
2. Wabisabi	11	5.0	Playing For Pride
3. TraderCaddy	4	12.0	Playing For Pride
4. Yogi & Boo Boo	3	13.0	Playing For Pride
4. BuffaloUdders	3	13.0	Playing For Pride
4.  Jimmy Hill 7. Jim	3 1	13.0 15.0	Playing For Pride Playing For Pride

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