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Get Trashy

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With the bears trapped in the move above 1131 on the S&P 500, I believe it is now correct to look for trashy, high beta stocks over the next few days. I am not talking weeks here, just a few days to rip the shorts who are acquiescing to the melt-up. Moreover, the low grade stocks will be playing catch-up to the broad market.

In other words, it is now acceptable to act trashy. So, go ahead and take a drive out to the Roosevelt Field Mall on Long Island, and start talking trash to random people minding their own business. Trashy is in. Haven’t you heard?

I bought a full position in trash du jour, $RDN. All trades are timestamped inside The PPT.

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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:

EQUITIES: 42%

  • LONG: 42% ($ATPG $BTU $NYT $RDN $VMW)

CASH: 58%

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CHESS MOVES

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I made two trades, thus far today:

  • I sold out of $CREE (1/2 position) for a small loss.
  • I bought a full position in $BTU, based on the chart below.

All trades are timestmaped inside The PPT.

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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:

EQUITIES: 34%

  • LONG: 34% ($ATPG $BTU $NYT $VMW)

CASH: 66%

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Let’s Be Precise

I believe this is one of those situations in the market where it may not serve you well to think in terms of everything melting up or down across the board. Just as we have become accustomed to potent correlations across a variety of asset classes, my analysis coming into this week leads me to submit to you the idea that the broad indices may not do much this week, either way.

Instead, we could easily see a sector rotation out of technology and into the industrial/material/energy complex. First, the Nasdaq ETF, seen below, should illustrate why I am reticent to just cavalierly toss out a bunch of long setups to you for the upcoming week.

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Despite the temptation to extrapolate that the entire market is an easy short here, given the chart above, to do so would ignore the bases being built in the energy and materials. I will be keeping a close eye early this week on whether my rotation theory comes to fruition. If I see glimpses of it on Monday and Tuesday, then I will be quick to exit my technology plays and look at some key names in the sectors I mentioned above. I already own $ATPG, and that looks to be as good a setup as I can find for this week.

While many stocks became too extended last week, the energy and steel names, for example, consolidated nicely and look to be scalloping out multi-month bases.

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Saturday Night Live, iBC Style

If the video below is too small to watch here on iBC, then you can just double-click the screen and watch it on YouTube.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qc2OWHS8lv8 450 300]r

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Lose Your Shirt and Eat it Too

In the stock market, controlling your emotions is one of the key characteristics that separates profitable traders from the ones who are destined to keep blowing up their accounts. While the thrill and rush associated with big wins may be memorable enough to “keep them coming back,” you should be taking pride in consistently trying to hit singles and doubles, day in and day out, while quickly cutting losing positions. As I have said before, to think of trading as a sexy and glamorous profession can be a very dangerous thing to do.

One tendency of many traders is to exacerbate the euphoria associated with having a string of profitable trades, but to then also drown in sorrow after experiencing a losing streak. After a winning week, it is natural to want to celebrate. Similarly, in the face of losing a relatively substantial sum of money, market players have a tendency to become morose, often beating themselves up over the weekend and beyond.

I believe that you should actually fade the normal routine. Remember, the idea is to be as levelheaded as possible. Euphoria has a few perilous friends who are called complacency, hubris and laziness. On the other side of the coin, being too negative after a losing streak will likely reinforce emotions that are actually going to cause your losses to continue, namely a lack of confidence, and diminishing objectivity in your analysis.

Therefore, the correct strategy is to be more inclined to enjoy your weekends after a tough week, even more than after a winning one. Of course, after a string of losses, you should be self-scouting to see what happened and why. However, if you followed your trading plan and you just happened to get very unlucky, then that is precisely the situation where you need to do everything in your power to bring yourself back to equilibrium. In essence, the goal is too never get too high or too low. In the midst of a spectacular winning streak, perhaps that might be the occasion to stay in over the weekend and do research, instead of buying a luxury car.

I recognize that this notion is completely at odds with the traditional trading/gambling mindset. In the poker world, it is not uncommon to see players eating only Ramen Noodles after a scary losing streak, for fear of going broke. A few weeks later, you might also see the same player blowing obscene amounts of money at restaurants, retail shoppes, on girls etc. after being on a heater. Simply put, traders with that type of mindset are likely to go broke. By all means, enjoy your life and the downtime you have after the closing bell rings on Friday.

However, just because we are now competing against robots everyday in the market does not mean that we can neglect our own human nature.

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Hey, My Portfolio, Step Into My Office…

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….You’re fucking fired.

Well, half of you guys are. Nothing irritates me more then underperformers. The saddest thing in life is a wasted talent. I sold out of $TQNT for a nice profit (I shouldn’t complain about that one, as it had a great run for me), as well as $CBI (no follow through to the bullish engulfing candle).

I expected $CREE and $VMW to perform better today, but I will exude patience with them, as they are merely lightly consolidating today.

I also bought a full position in $ATPG, which has a huge short position and looks ready to squeeze much higher.

All trades are timestamped in The PPT.

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TOTAL PORTFOLIO:

EQUITIES: 30%

  • LONG: 30% ($ATPG $NYT $CREE $VMW)

CASH: 70%

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