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Not Overthinking This One

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The market is contenting higher this morning, with plenty of stocks starting to garner energy along the way. The gun stocks like RGR and SWHC continue to blaze away in sustained uptrends (although they seem to be getting a bit crowded short-term), while winners like LIZ just plod higher. I am adding to some longs inside 12631, not trying to play for an imminent top. While “selling in May and going away” is the phrase du jour on the financial media networks, the market is unique at any given time. I want to maintain my focus and not become too dogmatic here. True, the S&P 500 has not yet made fresh highs above 1422, but that is not enough of a reason to throw a wet blanket on the price action this morning.

We are looking at a bunch of actionable stock here, However, I did give you the hotel/lodging group last week in this post. Indeed, GET is leading them all higher today.

Overall, I am adding to longs and am inching back into the water ever more. Another sustained run higher would be ideal, but I am also cognizant of the idea thatI may have to lock in gains soon. Let’s see what the dreaded May brings us.

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Went to the Store to Buy a Starter Position and This is What Happened…

 

 

I put my toes in the water last week during the market’s reversal higher, via taking a series of “starter” positions in several longs. Inside the 12631 Trading Service, one of those longs was Monster Beverage. Today, the stock just now shot up over 25% (where we locked in some gains before they halted the stock) on rumors of a buyout from KO. I still have 2% of my portfolio in the stock, pending the halt.

While I would have loved, in hindsight, to be in the stock all-in on margin, in real-time we got in the stock in 12631. Not bad for an overall down day in the market. Come check us out inside the room. There is honestly nothing more rewarding for @RaginCajun or myself about running the trading service than seeing our members succeed.

I am curious to see what happens after the halt, but I have a hard time seeing how it could be really bad news at this point.

Here is the timestamped buy (please ignore the coding).

 

 

chessNwine

New Long: $MNST 1/2 position (4% of portfolio) @ $65.04. Stop-loss: Below $63. With market breaking above 1392 on S&P I am putting out some “tester” longs. Will add on more strength. Good chart of a strong stock.

01:33:57pm EST on Thu, Apr 26, 2012

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THE PPT TAKES THE CAKE AGAIN

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We still have one more trading session left in April on Monday, but I think it is safe to say that the stellar April seasonality pick from The PPT has been another dazzling success. I brought Medivation’s April Levitation to your attention in this post on April 1st, and you would’ve been an April Fool to ignore it.

Despite an overall corrective month for the market in April, MDVN opened the the month at $74.37 and currently sits up at $80.38, denoting extremely impressive relative and absolute strength.

Here is MDVN‘s seasonal breakdown. Current members of The PPT and 12631 should click on the hyperlink at the beginning of this sentence to see an even more detailed breakdown of Medivation’s performance over every prior April. Sorry, guys. That one is for closers only.

If this type of analysis interests you, in addition to countless other features, please click here to learn more about becoming a member of The PPT.

MDVN April Seasonality Statistics (Courtesy of The PPT Algorithm)

Stats for the month:

Avg Return 18.03
# months TOTAL 14.00
# months UP 14.00
# months DOWN 0.00
months UP (%) 100.00
months DOWN (%) 0.00

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Hotels: Another Stealth Bull Market in 2012

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Back on March 5th of this year, I wrote a post for members inside the 12631 Trading Service discussing the bullish setups on a variety of charts in the lodging sector. It is an industry that rarely gets much traction amongst the hot money traders. Nevertheless, the charts of most of the key lodging firms are extremely impressive and basically speak for themselves, as you can see below.

In addition to real estate and biotechs, lodging appears to most certainly be a stealth area in demand this year. It is also noteworthy to see how well these charts have performed during this recent market correction, which may or may not have concluded. Either way, you are talking about resilient price action supported by ample buying volume. When you think about the implications of hotel stocks leading the charge higher, it is tough to be a bear on the market and economy looking out several months.

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Sink or Swim

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It appears that the bear flag we were observing into this week has morphed into a longer base, as chart patterns often do. Thus far today, the S&P 500 index is bumping up against the top end of a range that I am watching, after 1358 held as a low on Monday morning’s gap lower. If the bulls can breach 1392 to the upside and hold above it, I would consider it a sound victory for them. However, I am reluctant to put the horse before the cart until we see at least an initial breakout. As we dive head-first into this level for the fourth time in recent weeks, it looks to be a sink or swim scenario.

We are also still in earnings season, which makes catching moves like that in CRUS to be all the more difficult unless you aggressively bet before the results are released. In addition, as we are seeing with LVS this morning, there is no telling how the market will react.

With this overall backdrop, I am considering putting on some partial position-sized longs inside the 12631 Trading Service. Again, I am more inclined to do so if the low-1390’s can be negotiated well by the bulls. It is also worth noting that containing your angst is especially important here. It can be quite nerve-wracking trying to figure out whether the market has bottomed or not. You can always get back in on the long side if we have. Until we have a bit more evidence of that, though, cash is your best protection against a corrective market.

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Some Encouraging Signs

I mentioned UNP last night as possibly offering a Dow Theory buy signal with the transportation stocks, and today that marquee rail operator is breaking out from a long falling channel with decent volume. The biotechs, real estate, and materials sectors are all attracting capital today as well, in addition to the headlines being generated by Apple and tech stocks. As such, I highlighted a few names inside the 12631 Trading Service for members to watch on the long side. I am keeping an open mind here, willing to accept that stocks may have put in a good low if I see charts continue to firm up.

As far as today, it is almost always tough to trade earnings season, particularly on days when The Fed makes an announcement or speech. I am doing my best not to force any trades here, though emotions are running high on Twitter. With that in mind, our chat room in 12631 really distinguishes itself from any other platform that traders use because of the calm, focused nature of our service. Please click on the 12631 hyperlink for more information about joining our service, which is supplemental to joining The PPT. You will see a noticeable improvement in your focus and discipline as a trader.

I will have more after the bell on my video recap.

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