Home / chessNwine (page 33)


Full-time stock trader. Follow me here and on 12631

A Revised Game Plan for Bonds


Because I trade technicals over my opinions, I have not been hurt by the great bond market rally of 2014. In fact, we had a nice short trade in bonds inside 12631 in early-September.

I still maintain that rates on the 10-year bottomed for good in the summer 2012, though.

However, facts are facts, and bonds have been impressive this year. Whether or not we are the next Japan remains to be seen, with rates staying low for decades on end.

But my thesis centers around the idea that the bond market will experience a fierce sell-off as a means of expressing dissatisfaction with Fed policies which, in effect, renders The Fed helpless in terms of having any control over rates.

My thesis is now that equities will correct until Yellen acquiesces to not only undo the Taper, but eventually announce another round of QE.

At that point, equities should rally ferociously, perhaps even with bonds, only to see both make lower highs and turn lower as it becomes clear that, some five years after Bernanke went to ZIRP and QE, the policies have been rendered what Milton Friedman would have called, ineffective and permanent “temporary government programs.”


Comments »

Five Stocks Stepping in Front of the Market’s Slide


Courtesy of The PPT algorithm, here are the most current top five readings from my “12631 RELATIVE STRENGTH” custom-made screen, identifying which stocks are exuding some of the best performances to the market at-large at any given moment.

I look for stocks whose Daily PPT Hybrid Score surges, while the Weekly Hybrid has been negative over the past week. This can often yield stocks which are emerging from consolidations.

Members can click here to view and save the screen.

Sorted for at least 500,000 shares of daily average volume to ensure liquidity.

Please click on image to enlarge.



Comments »

I Reckon it is One of Those Days, MmmHmm


I reckon the market will close near the highs of the day on light volume, mmmhmm.

I reckon if we see another late-day sell-off like yesterday it means a crash is near, mmmhmm.

I reckon rallies are still to be sold into due to technical damage, mmmhmm.

I reckon the small caps can bounce some from here, but the correction is still the biggins and risk is lower, mmmhmm.

Comments »

Morning Message to Latecomer Ebola Gamblers


We were on the APT LAKE TKMR plays early inside 12631, a few weeks back.

We have shown patience over the past week or so, despite the first two shooting higher every day, as we expected a harsh shakeout any day now.

That day appears to be now.

I would resist the urge to bottom-fish these names today, as I suspect they may need a few days to settle down before a potential–and I emphasize the word potential–secondary entry sets up.

I am also keeping an eye on CMRX INO the rest of this week.

But not today, guys. Not today.


Comments »

Quick Bounce Plays

If you are looking for some (quick) support buys here, a good algorithm screen to have, courtesy of The PPT, is one I made called “12631 Quick Bounce Plays.”

In the screen, I am looking to isolate stocks with positive daily Hybrid PPT scores, but negative weekly ones.

Thus, they are ripe for a quick bounce as the momentum seems to be turning, if only for a bit. I also screen for PPT Relative Strength scores, as well as volume and % from 50 day moving average.

Members please click here to view and save the screen

Here are the readings as of Monday’s close. Remember, we are talking about short-term flips here, not high quality, multi-week swings. Keep those stop-losses in place.

(Click on image to enlarge)

**Only two readings here, which suggests market may not be ripe for a meaningful rally, so more caution is warranted**



Comments »

Night Owl Open Forum


For you night owls out there, feel free to drop me any market/trading-related topics you would like me to cover in a weekend video.

In addition, anything else about the current market, feel free to drop below.

Speak your mind, night owls.

Comments »