I am looking for the video online, but I recall an interview Hugh Hendry gave back in 2006 where he predicted an inflationary head-fake leading to a deflationary crash, followed by yet another inflationary head-fake and another deflationary crash.
Obviously, the estimable Hugh nailed the 2008 inflation trade and subsequent deflationary crash.
So, the issue is whether his prediction will come fully true, with another inflation trade followed by a deflationary crash.
We know the softs and precious metals have been hot, as has natty gas. But take a look at the crude oil monthly chart, coiled as can be.
What say you? Another oil super-spike, just like summer 2008?
__________________________________________________________
Chess, I’d look a little more, but have to get ready for work. Below is not it, but still a fun one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=prN9n-MWQnI
Yes, thanks Unc!
There is a torrent of money flowing to the top of the income curve, way more than can be spent on the usual things, like yachts and capex. Equities markets have been richly inflated (not saying they can’t/shouldn’t go higher) but maybe money needs a new playground. No inflation but could commods be a headfake? Corporate revenue projections are weak and the savings rate is 4%. H.H.’s prediction has a chance.
I think so. I see the FED, ECB, and BoJ money-printing driving commodity prices much, much, higher this decade.
BTW do you know what Hendry’s? timeframe on the inflation trade is?
roughly from his 2006 interview to around now, haha