I am currently on a plane headed back to Maui. I think it is very unlikely we crash from here. However, I think there is some more pain ahead. The rally out of the next low is key. If we fail to go to a new high and roll back over we have what is called a left translated cycle. We have not seen one of those in a long long time. It is at that point I go all in short.
On a side note there has been much in the way of technical voodoo that has lined up that I will share later. I have been playing a higher degree timeframe than most of you. I believe a significant trend change is at hand. No confirmation yet. Good luck everyone.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Bluestar
I really enjoy reading your posts and appreciate your awesome work. You make reference in a lot of your posts to market cycles. I am interested in learning more about this matter. Is there anything specific you could recommend for reading on this matter. In a past post of yours you discussed shorting airlines. Now that Ebola is in the U.S are you shorting the airlines? If not what are you looking for to happen before you initiate this trade. Again many thanks for the awesome work you do!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0BlXy3Roj4
My favorite read on cycles comes from Tim Wood. Bluestar, in the event of a left translated cycle you say you are “all in short”. I’ve tried to do some research on what the best trading vehicle would be to go short as I’ve been waiting for this since the precarious situation the market was in earlier this year. Are you considering using an index ETF or leveraged ETF? Or perhaps putting together a list of individual names?Thank you in advance.
What does a higher degree timeframe
mean.
Merci
Topping is a process, not an event… we are on way… step by step and no rush.
On the other hand, it’s a bull market, you know!
Totally agree with this post. Lower high on a rally equals deep correction
I have no idea what happens Thursday, Friday or next week but it strikes me that after a measly 3 1/2 pct drop in the S&P’s everyone is still looking for that one last rally towards the highs so they can ‘see how it looks’ before they decide if they should get out. Maybe that’s the smart thing to do but very often when a major market move starts you don’t get out (Or in) on your own terms.
Mr. Partridge, I know you have been reminding me of that over and over..I never knew the market is sooooo slow. Blue, It’s Draghi and if he throws in any “off the cuff” comments that can derail this. If he stays on Scrip, then 1918ish first resting spot…but next stop is that 1755ish spot which I still think was a more natural top..then down to the 1500’s for our first true support. This is such a mess, and Junk Bonds vs Yield is confirming a strong move down. When China comes back next week they won’t be buying either, perfect storm. Mr. P, I still think the popping of the Shanghai Copper Bubble formed since 2009 will be the lead dog when we start to really crumble.Their Copper is now at a 5 month low and continues to drop, the stronger USD hurts the carry trade that they have been using secured by Copper Collateral and since the port scandles nobody wants to take China Copper as Collateral for loans anymore.
High high risk here .. major indices are now in volume pockets to the downside and support lies way below.
ctb007,
Tim Wood is the man on cycles. He does DJIA, Bonds, Gold, Dollar and oil. On airlines I may short, not sure yet. I was out of pocket today. Looking to short expensive tech and GM and More LVS.
Jules,
Love the video.
operator1,
read previous posts and stay tuned.
gorby,
I am playing for the four year cycle top. There is a half trading cycle, trading cycle, intermediate trading cycle, seasonal cycle and the 4 year cycle. I am trying to time the longer term trend change. hence the term higher degree time frame. Thats why I used December puts.
Mr. Partridge,
Indeed!
longview,
All bull markets end at new highs and bears are born there. Contemplate that on the tree of woe.
Sonny,
I agree. This is tricky here.
Juice,
Indeed
Max pain is everyone expecting a bounce right here while Ebola raises uncertainty. Not that everyone will get Ebola, but the chaos in our healthcare system it will cause.
Not to mention travel etc. This is the kind of thing that might change a trend.
Bruce Keller,
What if the trend change was already baked into the cake.
Blue,
They did kind of start around January, the initial drops… nice timing with the first Ebola case, just sayin’.
Although IWM this morning is fairly robust, I have to admit.
Bluestar,
Thankyou
Bluestar,
where do you go long. I have some put spreads waiting to exit and will keep some.
Bill,
Closed puts. Did not get long anything yet. Stay tuned