iBankCoin
Recovering Large Cap Growth PM. How I invest my own money is nothing like how I had to play the insane benchmark game.
Joined May 7, 2014
165 Blog Posts

Did You Get The Top?…I Did!

I don’t like to brag but I must.  I was long ES into the squeeze close and then flipped max short in my futures account in Globex AHs.  Why did I do that?  I have adapted to this market.  It is controlled by robots algos and central bankers, however, they are not above the laws of nature.  My VIX indicators smelled a squeeze that was unsustainable plus the overall bearish structure had not been invalidated yet.  I also saw 2 possibilities as well.  The first was it was a buy the rumor sell they news affair so if we got Bremain we sell off.  The second was a surprise Brexit. The set-up favored a massive short either way.  Also we came within a tick of the ES continuous high from June 8th which would have blown out the bear market set up.  Additionally, Janet just told us that the stock market is over valued.  I think they will be inclined to let some air out of the stock market using the Brexit as cover.  I don’t think the Fed bid will be as strong here initially.

We all know the fundamentals are awful so now stocks may catch up with them.  We took out the May low which may have been an intermediate term low.  If that was the case then we have a failed left translated cycle at play which is extremely bearish.  It means we don’t bottom until the end of July.  Don’t bet the farm on shorting here because we don’t know for sure.  I have not covered yet.  This may be a large swing trade for me depending on how this unfolds.  Right now the bear market is alive.  Lets see how this unfolds tomorrow.  If we get massive stimulus I may cover and go long but I have a feeling we may get some legs on this move.  It the perfect cover for the Fed.  Good Luck Today!

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57 comments

  1. GM

    Nice job.
    I’ve added the remaining half of my account on the short side just now.
    Looking for c. 5200 on Ftse within a month.
    Gold though…wow, especially for UK residents.

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  2. k_melancon

    I like the policy take – this is something that I think most people don’t consider as a possibility.

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  3. roundwego

    well done lad, well done.

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  4. Celts

    Agree on fed cover, think anyone expecting stimulus at these levels are insane

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  5. anecdotal

    I was completely wrong about Brexit.
    They can manipulate Libor and everything else, but can’t fix a simple election? They have lost their edge. That is telling by itself.
    But they were still able to keep gold far from a $100+ day. That day will still arrive at some point.
    Well done Bluestar and others!

    I am not knowledgeable enough nimble enough to flit in and out, long & short of the market.
    ‘ just loaded to the gills with pm miners, which did alright today.

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  6. pyromonoxide

    Nice job !!

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  7. superpositron

    Yeah got short the Nasdaq and added to TLT and Gold Thursday. Was good to wake up to this today.

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  8. mx2101

    The Hawaii time zone probably helped.

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  9. Po Pimp

    I got short $IWM at 117 about a week and a half ago. Lucky sure, closer to the top than you… damn right.

    Word to the mother fucker.

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  10. GM

    @anecdotal

    Hold them til USD collapse (c.2034).
    Also, get some physical gold.
    Good luck.

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  11. anecdotal

    yea 2034 >>

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  12. probucks

    BlueStar is God!!

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  13. Noni Kavuri

    Blue,

    what do you make of today’s rally if anything? Did you close out any short positions?

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  14. probucks

    the squeeze is getting frothy

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  15. matt_bear

    Bluestar’s gains: “aaaaaand it’s gone”. He’ll post tomorrow saying he covered on Wednesday though.

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  16. og

    Exactly what I was going to say.

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  17. tm

    matt_bear,

    Why Wednesday? I’d go with Monday at SPX 1992, and claim it was a signal from a friend in Togo who matches Bible verse interpretations to lunar cycles.

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  18. J Adabese (your pen pal)
    J Adabese (your pen pal)

    Hope you covered Blue.

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  19. probucks

    thou shalt not blasphem sir BlueStar.
    the next month will smite thee

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  20. matt_bear

    New all time high.

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  21. anecdotal

    http://kingworldnews.com/rick-rule-7-9-16/

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  22. big bear

    Bluestar, did you get the new top?

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  23. og

    Damn, AMZN at all time highs.

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  24. Dave

    All time highs

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  25. Dave

    You also missed the top 40+ times

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  26. Joe

    BANNED!

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  27. Dan

    More New Highs

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  28. jts5362

    Blue!

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  29. aformalcat

    Blue fell into the volcano

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  30. anecdotal

    grant williams
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBbi3t_LHlc

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  31. anecdotal

    politics staged 3 mins
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6KHSNKpmdg

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  32. fryguy15

    Blue – would love to read your take on ATH’s.

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  33. anecdotal

    good stuff:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPO29CfjbtM

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  34. anecdotal

    heading off to the Sprott Symposium in Hongcouver

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  35. dd

    how bout now??

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  36. dd

    pride cometh before the fall – as they say

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  37. Dan

    New highs

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  38. Dan

    lol

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  39. FlyNavy

    Dan

    Don’t laugh to hard. One day this market will destroy you.
    But until then happy investing

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  40. it is showtime

    This is why permabears cant trade. It’s having a core short-or-inverse allocation and. That’s. that. I realized the magnitude of the agenda: allowing for the magnitude of manipulation wanting maliciously-and-ruthlessly rising stocks, three years ago; It didn’t stop me, and rightfully so, from vociferous excitation on every drop of course.

    Mid-feb was a halt. An interruption in the election cycle narrative. Forced them to halt collapse. That logic prevails through Brexit. A, Fuck. You. To another interruption. -They are saving for the election- Not saying will be used will be used a certain way or certain time But it’s obvious. Keeping available. as a tool. to deflect or initiate. a side.

    Stop trying to read when a bear market develops or technical toppling
    I advanced past that a couple years ago so I can rightfully lecture
    The hyper aggressive over zealous pump right now says
    Culmination of some kind
    is coming

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  41. DeTocz

    Showtime is right.

    I have been bearish as far back as I can remember. There has been plenty of evidence, socially and culturally, that we are in a bear market and have been for over a decade. Of course, this is opposite to the stock market, the world of financiers and investors. A rigged casino of sorts. For the record, I am not a trader. Were I to be one, I would likely be a complete failure. I see some opportunity when the herd turns. That’s about it. Hence, I am offering no consolation as I do not partake in day trading, just basic macro allocation.

    I see things becoming so fractured that the p/e ratio and dollar denomination of a particular stock, bond or asset offer little or no bearing on reality. Think about it, they already don’t. What is the price of a tangible physical item (say a lump of wood, coal or lamb carcass) vs some digits on a screen. We are way, way down the rabbit hole and things are about to become more nightmarish. I believe Mike Judge nailed it with Idiocracy. Hold on to your hats.

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  42. anecdotal

    a pgm play (1 – 3 yrs) is Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVPAF)
    It’s doubled recently but should be good for a 2 – 10 bagger over the next few years.
    They have the richest copper mine ever found in the world. Lithium batteries are 70% copper.
    One of their finds is like a buried office bldg of solid metal. I forget which metals are their.
    yes, I own shrs

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  43. matt_bear

    So is he officially done? His blog is worthless if he just vanishes after some bad advice/brag thread.

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  44. marc

    Are you dead?

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  45. GM

    He vanished off twitter also. Weird, I hope he’s OK.
    Can Fly or anyone else confirm Ed is OK?

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  46. fifty2weekhi

    Anyone sick of coming here and not seeing any update? IMO, please post soon or ask to be removed. This is not fair for the faithful readers.

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  47. HiBetaTrader

    Here are my “theory/opinion” using bits & pieces from Bluestar’s post:

    From his post:

    “…flipped max short in my futures account in Globex AHs”

    ” I also saw 2 possibilities as well. The first was it was a buy the rumor sell they news affair so if we got Bremain we sell off. The second was a surprise Brexit. The set-up favored a massive short either way. Also we came within a tick of the ES continuous high from June 8th which would have blown out the bear market set up. Additionally, Janet just told us that the stock market is over valued. I think they will be inclined to let some air out of the stock market using the Brexit as cover. I don’t think the Fed bid will be as strong here initially.”

    From the first quote above, maximum short in future account meant that was a very high leverage trade. Basically this was equivalent to Steve McQueen making that final bet (from the movie-The Cincinnati Kid) that he was so sure he would win.

    The second quote might represent BlueStar’s state of mind that this was the “final” bet that he had been waiting for all these years of bearish sentiment. Noticed that he stated “The set-up favored a massive short either way.” A double confirmations of Janet’s remark and the Brexit vote could have amplified BlueStar’s resolve to double-down the following day. It was possible that BlueStar considered the bounce on the 3rd day since his max short as a dead-cat bounce. If he had added to his short position on this bounce, then he would have suffered enormous loss consequently if he hesitated to close his short position. As we all know, market never looked back since the first bounce.

    Of course, this is all theory from the information available. I’m sure BlueStar survived intact but the losses would not be pretty and hence the lack of motivation to update his blog.

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  48. GM

    I sent a tweet to The Fly, just to try to ascertain if Blue/Ed was OK in terms of health, but Fly didn’t deign to reply. Class.

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  49. Ibankcoin reader

    Bluestar is on twitter and tweets daily. Not providing link as I don’t send traffic away from Flys site. Just ending this question re: health.

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  50. Ben

    Look for a post tomorrow from bluestar stating he went 100% short in his futures account at the close Thursday and caught the top 😉

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  51. hesitation_marks

    This is the Real_Top right?!?

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  52. jts5362

    Where is this guy?

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  53. anecdotal

    good interview:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkQx_OKnSxQ&feature=youtu.be

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  54. scarface

    I believe this is.

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  55. anecdotal

    voter fraud is sop
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBpSejHAI5U
    this time will be no different

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