Being a bear has been awful these last few months. The top on April 20 saw a meager 3.8% sell off and was actually a buying opportunity for many sectors. I have not been very active in the market except for some individual stock shorts. I have a large slug of cash and I am waiting. If we get a sustained breakout over the May 2015 high I will reassess my bearish ways.
Fundamentally things continue to look bad but technically we don’t have credit or the VIX on the bear’s side. We do have the possibility of a failed trading cycle here if we were to roll and take out the May 19th low. There is a potentially very subtle short set up here but I am not playing it until some key levels are taken out and the Vix wakes up. I got a call from a friend that is convinced that we are about to make a big turn here and begin to crash according to his very under followed methods. I want to believe him but I will err on the side of caution here.
I know I have not been posting much but on the bearish front there has not been much to post lately and I don’t want people hurting themselves trying to short a market that won’t go down. In addition to the short set up there is a long set up as well for a breakout. This inflection point is way harder than last year was because everyone was looking up and were not worried about downside. The investment community is now aware of what I saw last year and now its about herd positioning. The monthly bollinger band width is at an extreme low and we will be getting a very big move soon. I would like to tell you it is down and that this is the mother of all head fakes but I can’t honestly say that I know for sure. Watch credit, the VIX and key support resistance levels for clues. It is apparent to me that TPTB will not let this market implode before the Fall. The question we all have is can they hold it up much longer?If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter