Joined Jan 1, 1970
509 Blog Posts

Alpha Sells: REITs !

I blew out the positions in CBL @ $6.05, MAC @ $16.43, and BXP @ $45.92, for gains of 128.30%, 98.43%, and 23.71%, respectively.

I am done with the hedged REIT strategy for now.

Still holding on to SRS with at $34.19 basis. I fully expect to recoup those losses in the near future.

Good day to you.

UPDATE: Current positions in REITs and the results of the strategy, inception 03/10/09:

Ticker  Shares Cost Basis/Sh Cost LAST Total Position (FMV) % ▲ Gain (Loss)   %CHG TODAY
SRS 20,000 $34.19 $683,729 $24.56 $491,200 (28.16)   13.81
$683,729 $491,200 (28.16) 13.81
Long $0 $0
Short (effective) $683,729 $982,400
Net effective long(short) ($982,400)
Previously Sold:
MAC 40,000 $8.28 $331,200 $16.43 $657,200 98.43 05/13/09
CBL 90,000 $2.65 $238,500 $6.05 $544,500 128.30 05/13/09
BXP 10,000 $37.12 $371,200 $45.92 $459,200 23.71 05/13/09
SRS 10,000 $34.19 $341,900 $20.59 $205,900 -39.78% 05/08/09
KIM 93,000 $7.55 $702,150 $9.05 $841,650 19.87% 04/06/09
CBL 87,100 $2.65 $230,815 $6.56 $571,472 147.59% 04/17/09
MAC 40,000 $8.28 $331,200 $15.39 $615,600 85.87 04/27/09
CBL 90,000 $2.65 $238,500 $7.15 $643,500 169.81 04/27/09
BXP 8,900 $37.12 $330,368 $47.97 $426,933 29.23 04/27/09
SRS 28,000 $34.19 $957,221 $26.51 $742,280 (22.45) 04/27/09
$4,073,054 $5,708,235
$1,635,181 40.15%    

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Analyze This….

When will this recession/faux depression be over with? Who knows, but I have some interesting tidbits of information for you armchair economists to analyze. Can anyone confirm or deny the following?

1. Since 1948, a rise above 41 in the ISM Manufacturing number has preceded positive GDP growth within one quarter 89% of the time, and within 2 quarters 100% of the time. The current reading for April was 40.1, the fourth straight month of increase. The next release of the ISM is June 1.

2. A greater than 9.4% drop in the 4 week MA of the number of unemployment insurance claims has accurately forecasted the end of every recession for the last 40 years. Simply put, an average weekly decline of 18,000 claims in the next two weeks would satisfy this interesting factoid.

I got this from my numbers guy who spends all day talking to brainiacs and playing with his calculator. Let me know if you concur.

Good day.

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Ridiculous and Silly Stocks

As an old Marine Corps officer used to say, “don’t put yourself in danger until I order you to do so.”

Look people, this run in the market is almost over. The market is weak and passive and ready to get pummeled, like a computer nerd stumbling around in “the octogon”.

Many stocks are ridiculously overpriced in this momentum driven market. You want to participate in a blood bath? Go all in, right now. You have my permission to put yourself in harm’s way, guillotine-style.

No, it behooves you to hedge, raise cash, pray, or do all three. Do not delay these tasks any longer.

Good day to you.

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Alpha Buys: UEC @ $1.423

It appears that this stock has bottomed and will be heading higher over the next year or so. Due to its “glowing” nature, the market for uranium is in its early stages of a long term, multi-year bull market. However, UEC is a developmental company that will not start to see U production until sometime in 2010, so caveat emptor.

The big driver for this stock will be the shortage of uranium going into the future. Contrary to what some of you city-slickers think, you just don’t go out and start a uranium mine tomorrow. You’re looking at seven to eight years of development in a lot of cases. Then there’s the government extracted pound of flesh that is always due….

I also see consolidation in this industry as players look to jockey for position.

Plus, our old/new friends, the Chinese, are at it again, buying up beaucoup properties to mine the funky stuff for their future utility plants. Yeah, you Chinese will get my uranium when you pry it from my cold, dead, radioactive fingers. Go light a candle in the wind.

I like the prospects for this stock, given the fact that I have a friend who is a highly regarded global mining consultant, who thinks highly of the management of this company. He particularly likes the properties and acreage they have in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. It is prime and full of mineral. (Unbeknownst to the rest of Americans living on the coasts, the land in the mountain West is acutely radioactive, so stay away. Stay where you are. Don’t plan on coming out here to live. It’s dangerous.)

This is a long-term buy and hold. Consider it a call option on uranium with no expiration.

(Disclaimer: Buying stocks like this could potentially be penny-wise, but pound foolish—if that makes any sense to you. Consider the risks here. Have you ever seen uranium? Does it even exist? For all you know, some Madoff-like space alien could have made all this shit up, and our “nukular” [sic] plants are running off of bug doo-doo. Due diligence, friends, due diligence. Know the risks. Warning: this company is based out of Austin, Texas, which of course is the home of steers and queers. So sorry if I offended any steers.)

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Bannana [sic] Breakouts For You Small Cap Mavens

Yesterday I bought some TWM to hedge my egregious small cap garbagio stock portfolio. The thinking here is to hedge a downturn in the Russell 2000, should these stocks turn south.

If the conventional wisdom of “sell in May, go away” turns out to be foolish jibberish in this current market, my sense is that my garbagio stocks will go up faster than my TWM hedge goes down, thus allowing me the luxury of banking more coin, whilst reassessing the battlefield before executing a SELL on TWM. If, however, the former adage is “gospel”, then at least I’m cushioned somewhat on the downside, thereby achieving what is also known in the venacular as, a “soft-landing”.

Just know that these things often do not work out according to plan, so caution is still advised on new buying here.

That simply stated, and in view of the fact that this market has gone ape-shit in the past two months, we have some new bannana breakouts in a number of sectors:

If you like sushi, try Japanese bank MTU, currently at $6.54 (caution: this is not a small cap!). Perhaps you will develop an appetite for Japanese investing….or, not.

Biotech: REGN, $15.65  +3.37%

Computers: SRX, $16.75  +7.79%

Electronics: NEWP, $5.59  +7.92%

Oil: ROSE, $9.10  +21.17%

REITs: YSI, $3.84  +11.63%

Software: TLEO, $15.17  +11.54%

(Disclaimer: investing in small cap garbagio stocks is like pouring gasoline on yourself, then asking for free cigarettes from the Taliban (why, oh why, would you do that?). Know the risks, especially how much coin you are willing to lose from your “avarice-green” stained fingers (that is a color, like “burnt sienna”). This author does not endorse or deny the profitablity of the stocks mentioned above. No guarantees are stated or implied with this information. Trade at your own risk.)

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