Going to be a cold weekend. View here. 
Going to be a cold weekend. View here. 

Going to be a cold weekend. View here. 

Going to be a cold weekend. View here. 

Going to be a cold weekend. View here. 

Going to be a cold weekend. View here. 

he partisan debate over jobs creation has descended into a blame game between President Obama and congressional Republicans.

Photo by: Pete Souza President Barack Obama

“Over and over, they have refused to even debate the same kind of jobs proposals that Republicans have supported in the past – proposals that today are supported, not just by Democrats, but by Independents and Republicans all across America,” Obama complained in his radio address Saturday morning. “Meanwhile, they’re only scheduled to work three more weeks between now and the end of the year.

Republicans in the House respond that they’ve passed 15 job-creating bills only to have those measures bottled up in the Democrat-controlled Senate.

“We call these bills the ‘forgotten 15′,” Rep. Bobby Schilling of Illinois said in the Republican address Saturday.

“These are common-sense bills that address those excessive federal regulations that are hurting small business job creation,” said Rep. Schilling, a freshman lawmaker whose family owns a pizza business in Moline. “A number of them have bipartisan support. Yet the Senate won’t give these bills a vote, and the president hasn’t called for action.”

The essence of the divide remains: Increase federal investment to stimulate job creation versus easing environmental and other regulatory restrictions that critics say can hinder job creation.

As with much of the debate in Washington these days – including the effort by the bipartisan congressional “super committee” to cut the federal deficit by $1.2 trillion before draconian budget cuts kick in automatically – this one can’t avoid the subject of taxes.

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Consumer confidence numbers were so bad (39), it’s almost comedic. People in this country would rather punch one another in the face than buy another pair of jeans. Coupled with the fact that things are starting to look dicey again in Europe, there are numerous reasons to sell stocks. Keep in mind, CMI and MMM missed, as well as AKS. Letter X had bullshit numbers; but people with goat brains are buying stocks, nevertheless.

You do understand that buying here means you are Eddy Barzoon, don’t you? The people who are telling you to buy now, after a 16% rally, are idiots. Plain and simple, Cramer doesn’t manage money for a living anymore and is out of touch with reality. Might I suggest he bulk up on some psychotropics?

It’s very possible the Europeans concoct some plan that looks good on the surface. However, you cannot insure your way out of insurmountable debt. You either default or print money. Having said that, the news should be sold, several times over.

Gold is sprinting and refiners are getting crushed. The problem with the refiners here is collapsing 321 crack spreads. This is occurring due to run away speculation in WTI, which, incidentally, is compressing the spread between Brent and WTI as well. This is a lose lose for WNR. However, the moves that pissed you off last quarter with WNR may end up saving them. I am talking about their aggressive hedging strategies that stunted profits. With 35%+ of production hedged at $27, WNR is in a great position to unwind those hedges, smartly, into weakness.

321 cracks are down 15% today to $22.5.

Finally, what more can I add to the NFLX story? This is an unbelievable collapse. I am sure there will be a trading opportunity. But the downward momentum in both the stock price and business is too fast. It’s best to spectate, while poking fun at the trials and tribulations of a certain REED HASTINGS.

UPDATE: I bought EXK to get my silver on.

Not the psychopath political one, but the stock.

I’ve been recommending purchase of it since $20, yet haven’t bought a share for myself. I was going through personal strife, whereby Italian bonds yields infected my brain with visions of dust.

Buying a high end, mall based, retail chain is risky, especially in its infancy. Without a doubt, the high end retailers, COH, WSM, AAPL etc, is where the money is flowing these days, as the 1% continues to denigrate the pathetic, hapless, lives of the 99%. In all seriousness, buying TEA here may lead to a swift decapitation because the stock is gaudily valued.

At 43x 2012 EPS, the stock could easily lose 50%, similar to the pinless hand grenade action in Herb Greenberg’s taste test fav SODA. Nevertheless, all early stage growth companies trade in this manner (rich premium) until they lose credibility. Right now, TEA is being given the benefit of the doubt, despite trading below its IPO price.

Here are the hard facts.

The company opened 18 new stores in the second quarter and intend to open a total of 50 in 2011. By the end of 2011, the company should have about 200 stores, a very small footprint by any standard.

They’ve partnered with Alshaya to open retail stores throughout the middle east.

To date, they have zero stores in China. It is estimated that more than 70% of Chinese favor tea over coffee, making it a prime expansion target for TEA.

Approximately 55% of their revenue derives from the sale of loose tea, while 35% comes from merchandise.

Their same store sales are increasing at a 9% clip, buoyed by a robust e-commerce platform.

Annual sales will be in the ballpark of $160 mill, a 38% increase over last year. Net income will be around $16 mill or 0.43, an increase of 78% over last year.

Here’s the kicker.

Shorts are all over this stock, just like a variety of high growth retail. People simply do not believe in the model, considering the economic vitality of America. Where I believe they are wrong, and will get bludgeoned, is the wide array of expansion possibilities for TEA. This country is ripe for TEA to expand. For more than two decades, SBUX and copy cats have flooded every city with their asshole cafes. The time has come for a change of flavour, if I might be so bold.

Aside from the international possibilities, TEA could easily KCUP their product or even develop their own machine. That’s not the reason why you buy the stock, however. Right now, just 7 million shares lie in the float. On any upside news, this stock will flame higher, fueled by the tinder that is represented in the 40% short position.

The company has $5 million in debt and total liquidity of $35 million.

It’s hard to assign a price target to TEA because it’s so young. Clearly, they can expand in the US by at least another 500 stores and start to rollout TEA cafes, similar to SBUX–if they so choose. In my opinion, the big opportunity is in China. Like GMCR three years ago, there is tremendous upside to a story like this; but you have to be patient when buying the stock. Dollar cost averaging every quarter makes sense, unless the company is proven to be incompetent.

At a minimum, I think the stock can hit $50 by the end of 2012, based on the current trends.

Not the psychopath political one, but the stock.

I’ve been recommending purchase of it since $20, yet haven’t bought a share for myself. I was going through personal strife, whereby Italian bonds yields infected my brain with visions of dust.

Buying a high end, mall based, retail chain is risky, especially in its infancy. Without a doubt, the high end retailers, COH, WSM, AAPL etc, is where the money is flowing these days, as the 1% continues to denigrate the pathetic, hapless, lives of the 99%. In all seriousness, buying TEA here may lead to a swift decapitation because the stock is gaudily valued.

At 43x 2012 EPS, the stock could easily lose 50%, similar to the pinless hand grenade action in Herb Greenberg’s taste test fav SODA. Nevertheless, all early stage growth companies trade in this manner (rich premium) until they lose credibility. Right now, TEA is being given the benefit of the doubt, despite trading below its IPO price.

Here are the hard facts.

The company opened 18 new stores in the second quarter and intend to open a total of 50 in 2011. By the end of 2011, the company should have about 200 stores, a very small footprint by any standard.

They’ve partnered with Alshaya to open retail stores throughout the middle east.

To date, they have zero stores in China. It is estimated that more than 70% of Chinese favor tea over coffee, making it a prime expansion target for TEA.

Approximately 55% of their revenue derives from the sale of loose tea, while 35% comes from merchandise.

Their same store sales are increasing at a 9% clip, buoyed by a robust e-commerce platform.

Annual sales will be in the ballpark of $160 mill, a 38% increase over last year. Net income will be around $16 mill or 0.43, an increase of 78% over last year.

Here’s the kicker.

Shorts are all over this stock, just like a variety of high growth retail. People simply do not believe in the model, considering the economic vitality of America. Where I believe they are wrong, and will get bludgeoned, is the wide array of expansion possibilities for TEA. This country is ripe for TEA to expand. For more than two decades, SBUX and copy cats have flooded every city with their asshole cafes. The time has come for a change of flavour, if I might be so bold.

Aside from the international possibilities, TEA could easily KCUP their product or even develop their own machine. That’s not the reason why you buy the stock, however. Right now, just 7 million shares lie in the float. On any upside news, this stock will flame higher, fueled by the tinder that is represented in the 40% short position.

The company has $5 million in debt and total liquidity of $35 million.

It’s hard to assign a price target to TEA because it’s so young. Clearly, they can expand in the US by at least another 500 stores and start to rollout TEA cafes, similar to SBUX–if they so choose. In my opinion, the big opportunity is in China. Like GMCR three years ago, there is tremendous upside to a story like this; but you have to be patient when buying the stock. Dollar cost averaging every quarter makes sense, unless the company is proven to be incompetent.

At a minimum, I think the stock can hit $50 by the end of 2012, based on the current trends.

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