When will this recession/faux depression be over with? Who knows, but I have some interesting tidbits of information for you armchair economists to analyze. Can anyone confirm or deny the following?
1. Since 1948, a rise above 41 in the ISM Manufacturing number has preceded positive GDP growth within one quarter 89% of the time, and within 2 quarters 100% of the time. The current reading for April was 40.1, the fourth straight month of increase. The next release of the ISM is June 1.
2. A greater than 9.4% drop in the 4 week MA of the number of unemployment insurance claims has accurately forecasted the end of every recession for the last 40 years. Simply put, an average weekly decline of 18,000 claims in the next two weeks would satisfy this interesting factoid.
I got this from my numbers guy who spends all day talking to brainiacs and playing with his calculator. Let me know if you concur.
Good day.
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