Joined Jan 1, 1970
509 Blog Posts

I Have a Headache! Please Buy the Banks! Booyah!

I think it’s hilarious that  Booyah Jim has been talking up bank stocks. Funny. Of course, we all know he is borderline insane.

Just when you think there’s a “lull”, his show spirals down even worse.

You’re killin’ me, Jimbo. Banks? Ah….., no thanks.

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The market bulls are putting up a nice fight today and holding their own, as the market is still maintaining its uptrend for now.

For you techno chart chompers that are monitoring MACD, look for a busted uptrend line to signal the next downturn. Until then, strength is on the side of the “horned ones”, until it dissapates.

I am still hedged, not trusting this head fake rally.

So what if LOW comes in with positive news? It’s simply a pre-foreclosure conspiracy by homeowners who are spending money to fix up homes that they can’t sell.

India is irrelevant, despite the cries of the slumdog millionaires.

Good day.

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Headline 2011: Socialism Sinks U.S. Economy

Washington (AP)—In an ironic twist of fate, socialist economic policies coupled with burdensome government regulation are being blamed for the -20% contraction in Real GDP for 2010, say a panel of leading economists. “It was doomed from the start”, said real estate czar Donald Trump. “At least I own New York now.”

“The $787 billion stimulus has not worked”, said Nancy Pelosi, who claimed she was not briefed by government officials and Republican senators and representatives. “They flat out lied to me, and did not tell me that the stimulus package was going to fail. They insinuated that it might fail, but did not say outright that it probably would.”

President Obama chuckled and blamed former President George W. Bush and his failed policies. Additionally, Vice President Joe Biden unequivocably blamed Sarah Palin for promoting her ultra conservative hate speech and tea parties.”

Stocks are now down 85% from their October 2007 peak.

Let that bounce around in your medulla oblongata.

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Hedged and Waiting

Basically, today I did nothing but watch the market, shoot off some emails and blog.

This market has an ominous tone to it. I do not like what I see, as you may have gathered from some of my posts today.

After a recent 30%+ run in the market and being up 50% year to date, now is not the time for me to take on risk, regardless of what my research guy is saying about the LEIs. You on the other hand, should be careful about trying to play “catch up” by being long too long (yes, an awkward phrase) in this market. Patience and discipline are key here.

As I said a couple of days ago, we are at a crossroads in the market, watching and waiting….

Ticker Shares Cost Basis/Sh Cost LAST Total Position (FMV) % ▲ Gain (Loss) %CHG TODAY $ GAIN (LOSS) TODAY
HTGC 1,200 $6.46 $7,752 $8.40 $10,080 30.03 3.58 $348
ARO 150 $25.58 $3,837 $32.79 $4,919 28.19 2.63 $126
SUMT 1,000 $3.82 $3,820 $4.74 $4,740 24.08 5.10 $230
EBAY 150 $14.02 $2,103 $16.84 $2,526 20.11 4.14 $100
VPHM 375 $4.98 $1,868 $5.61 $2,104 12.65 2.56 $53
CAF 125 $33.55 $4,194 $36.55 $4,569 8.94 (3.33) ($157)
DBA 200 $24.83 $4,966 $27.04 $5,408 8.90 2.04 $108
TWM 800 $47.29 $37,832 $50.06 $40,048 5.86 (2.87) ($1,183)
CLS 650 $5.56 $3,614 $5.85 $3,803 5.22 3.72 $136
DM 600 $11.87 $7,122 $12.51 $7,506 5.39 0.24 $18
MOT 650 $5.55 $3,608 $5.78 $3,757 4.14 2.12 $78
KNOL 200 $8.33 $1,666 $8.03 $1,606 (3.60) 1.65 $26
DZZ 100 $23.46 $2,346 $22.06 $2,206 (5.97) 0.32 $7
UEC 2,500 $1.42 $3,558 $1.21 $3,025 (14.97) 0.00 $0
Cash     $54,480   $54,480      
  TOTALS   $142,765   $150,776 $8,011   ($110)
            5.61%   -0.07%
Current Gain (Loss) YTD:           $50,776    


Since tomorrow is “Flyfishing Friday”, I will be standing in a clear mountain stream, incommunicado.

Happy trails.

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At the Sound of the Roman Trumpets…..

you should not bow down to your greedy little wishes to bank more coin. Instead, take it as an alarm and a call to retreat to your bunker.

Early warning here….

Yes, it does look rather ominous.

As does this……

Bullish support at S&P 770.

Be warned and be well.

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Asshat Dip Buyers, Take Note

Let’s not mince words here. The pullback shall continue.

On a price momentum / relative strength basis to cash, the stock market has shown it’s highest momentum reading since the beginning of my datapoints in September 1989. Even higher than the days of the tech bubble. Ask yourself, “is this warranted?”….then feel free to chuckle or chortle to your hearts content.

See, this rally is simply overdone, due to our CEO-in-Chief’s newly found “financial magic” and short-sighted investors misguided and unfounded optimism. All things come to an end, especially this recent bear market rally.

Soon, we will get a healthy dose of reality again.

The market sentiment numbers reflect this:

NYSE Weekly Bullish Percent: 72%….the daily BP dropped to below 70% yesterday. It was at 74% last Friday.

NYSE Percentage of Stocks Above 10 Week MA: 84%, and falling now.

S&P 500 Weekly Bullish Percent: 72%. It has now fallen to 66% as of yesterday.

Nasdaq 100 Weekly Bullish Percent: 78%, down from 83% last week.

Nasdaq Weekly Hi-Lo Index: 78%, and falling.

Percent of NYSE Stocks Trading Above a 10 Week MA: 84% and falling, down from a 91% reading on Tuesday.

Percent of Nasdaq Stocks Trading Above a 10 Week MA: 78%, falling from 83%.

Typically, an intermediate term “correction” doesn’t end until the readings are somewhere south of 30%.

Trade accordingly.

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