Joined Jan 1, 1970
509 Blog Posts

Alpha Buys: FLY

This is no joke. I bought FLY for $7.50.

I expect FLY to double. Appropriate, no?

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Alpha Buys: TLM, MOS

TLM @ $15.59   (10:28 ET)

MOS @ $58.55   (10:59 ET) 

MOS now trading above 200 day MA.

I still have my hedges on with SDS and TWM.

(Disclaimer: For educational enhancement only).

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Alpha Buys: NLS @ $1.69

What can I say? This market is irrational, but profitable for those willing to throw caution to the winds.

(Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. If you buy this stock without checking it out, a stack of weights just might fall on and snap your pencil neck.)

10:01 ET

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SELL: F*%# !

It comes as no surprise that with the market going up, everybody and Uncle Charlie are getting all giddy bullish and wildly optimistic. Even some of my colleagues are succumbing to the “smiley-face” atmosphere being peddled by two-bit financial bulls.

Case in point: Ford.

Look people, just because GM and Chrysler are biting the dust, doesn’t mean F will do well. All this optimism about F is excessive and nauseating. F is trading as if its competitors bankruptcy is a good thing, which is quite erroneous and misguided—at least in the near term.

Although they have not taken any government money, and they look to be the “survivor” of the Big 3, they are not in a position to steer their way through the financial morass of declining unit sales and the systemic earthquake that a GM bankruptcy will cause.

God bless them, but forecasting 10.5 to 12.5 million unit sales for 2009 is, well…..Cramer-esque! Try more like 9 million for a dose of reality. See, the consumer is not going to be spending money for a while, even if the Dow hits 10,000—what do they care? They don’t have a job, they might lose their job, and they can’t even get a loan. We should be buying Shimano instead.

Stop the nonsense!

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Wringing Every Last Drop of Blood Out of the Turnip

I don’t know about you, but I think this market has limited upside at this juncture. Yesterday’s rally is pretty consistent with a short-term trading bounce that has been developing for a number of market sectors that have been correcting over the past couple of weeks, culminating with OE last Friday. Volume is not great, either.

So, is this a corrective bounce, or is the market going to extend the rally from here? The verdict is still out, but evidence suggests that what we saw yesterday was simply a trading bounce. There is little sustainable upside from here. For one thing, the Trannies have been showing signs of weakness since last Wednesday, and gold is surprisingly bullish going into seasonal weakness, suggesting folks are establishing a more defensive posture here.

In short, the market appears to be making an intermediate peak here.

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