iBankCoin
Joined Jan 1, 1970
509 Blog Posts

A Freakin’ Beautiful Day

….it just was. My long positions melted up today with AFLAC (AFL) now up over 36% since Monday’s purchase. Also, rounding out the top 5 in the “Kill the Bears” Optimal Alpha portfolio were:

ORIX (IX)                    +33.24%

Textron (TXT)            +24.71%

Darden (DRI)              +22.82%

Swift Energy (SFY)      +13.87%

I also bought other stocks today like Ferro (FOE) @ $1.44 (+13.88%) and American Capital (ACAS) @ $1.04 (+8.65%), as well as Century Aluminum (CENX) @ $1.51 (+7.94%). I continue to bottom fish this rally. If in fact, this is the real deal, these low priced stocks will fund my next real estate purchase.

This rally is looking like it does have some legs. As I mentioned last night in my PPT post, my cue to keep buying had to come from Ben “The Bear Killa” Benanke, the Philly Bank Stock Index (BKX) and the VIX. I got confirmation from all three.

Just know that this is a classic bear market rally and be ready to jump off the train, leaving the hobos onboard.

When everybody expects a rally, like they did in early January, the market kept going down because, well, it’s a bear market, Einstein. People become unwilling to commit to stocks in the face of relentless selling, naturally.

I give you Exhibit A:

…..a month of selling from February 10 to March 9.

A short covering rally was introduced into the soup on March 10, the first uptick in what seemed like an eternity of selling. Initially, all the unbelievers came out and declared that the rally would run out of steam shortly. I was numbered among them. But lo, and behold, we are getting back to the 50 day MA on the S&P, and we did breach the 790 level that I had talked about last weekend.

Now, a bigger rally than anyone expected has people starting to think that maybe this could go longer. If the classic scenario plays out, the rally could be extended out over several more weeks, which will really start to get people thinking the bear market is finally over. Especially If we do get a few “9:1” upside days like today on significantly expanding volume, then people might really start to think, the bear market is done. (Listen for the great big sucking sound.)

But is it, really? Or is this another suckers rally?

I’ll update more on the portfolios tonight in The PPT.

That is all.

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Bought AINV @ $2.11

Apollo Investment Corp. (AINV), a BDC under the Investment Compay Act of 1940, is one of those stocks that might be an interesting value play. First of all, let me say that this is a financial stock that has been beaten to a pulp, formerly trading at $20 within the last 52 weeks. So, I’m bottom fishing here.

As of 12/31/08, the company had reported $2.5 billion in assets, and after you subtract the liabilities, the net asset value per share was $9.87. Ok, so lets apply a generous discount of 50% for a “margin of safety”. That still puts the NAV at $4.93.

With a market cap of about $300 million, the stock is currently trading with a ‘2’ handle, at a fraction of it’s NAV, and at a fraction of its enterprise value of $1.4B.

Although it cut it’s dividend in half, the current distribution rate is still an eye-popping 49% annualized. So, take that with a couple of grains of sea salt. 

(Disclosure: I own over 36,000 shares. Not an offer to buy or sell securities. Trading and investing involves risk. Please consult your local financial professional to make sure any investment you make fits with your “plan”.  )

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Understanding Mark-to-Market and Bank Meltdowns

The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) provided additional guidance to companies regarding the application of mark-to-market accounting rules on Monday, via a FASB Staff Position (FSP)……..( zzzzzzzz…..zzzzzzz…….zzzzzzz )

Look, these people are boring, but it’s worth understanding the issue at hand here.

Note: the rules apply to securities, NOT loans, when market value drops below the recorded book value and the securities are deemed “impaired”.

A two-step model for guidance was developed to address the issues.

Step 1: Determine if there are factors present to indicate that there is no active market for the asset at the measurement date. These factors would include:

1. Very few transactions, based on the volume and level of market activity.

2. Quotes are not current (several hours to days to weeks)

3. Price quotes vary “substantially” among market makers

4. Recent non-correlation to an index by an asset that has historically been highly correlated to an index

5. Significant widening of bid-ask spreads

6. Little or no public information available on the security.

7. Abnormally high liquidity risk premiums or implied yields when compared to reasonable estimates of credit for the asset.

Step 2: Determine if a recently quoted price is, or is not, associated with a distressed sale. The reporting company can always presume that the quoted price is associated with a distressed sale, unless both of the following are present:

       ——there were multiple bidders for the asset

       ——there was a period of time, prior to the measurement date, that allowed for usual and customary sale of the asset or liability. (An example would be that there was not a regulatory requirement to sell the security.)

There was also guidance given regarding “Other-Than-Temporary-Impairments” (OTTI). The current rules require an entity to examine and assess  whether it has the intent and ability to hold a security for a sufficient period of time to allow for recovery. This is the litmus test to determine if an impairment is other than temporary. The proposed FSP would change that rule as follows:

1. If an entity intends to sell a security, or if it is likely that it will be required to sell the security prior to recovery of the cost basis, the entire impairment loss would be recognized in earnings as “OTTI”.

2. If the entity does not intend to sell a security, and it is not likely that it will be required to do so before recovering its cost basis, only the portion of the impairment loss that represents credit losses would be recognized in earnings as OTTI. The balance of the impairment loss would be recognized as a charge against other income.

3. …..nevermind. I won’t bore you with the rest of it. If you happen to read the rest of the FSP,  you could also interpret the guidance on the measurement of OTTI write downs to be limited to losses from the weakened credit of borrowers that back the securities, and not from market illiquidity. It will be interesting how this will play out. 

THE BOTTOM LINE is that this new guidance on Mark-to-Market from FASB will have the greatest impact on those institutions with very sizable portfolios of Level 2 and Level 3 securities that have large negative marks and have not already been marked down. (As a refresher, Level 2 assets are those where price quotes are from markets that are inactive. Level 3 assets have prices or valuation techniques that require inputs that are signficant to the fair value measurement AND are unobservable.)

The comment period is 15 days, and ends on April 1st. If the FASB Board finalizes the FSP, it will probably be effective for the interim and annual periods ending after March 15, 2009.

Just in time for Q1 reporting! (Gee, fancy that!)

The entities that stand to benefit the most are the usual suspects: GS, MS, C, BAC, and JPM. (Gee, who knew?)

This is basically smoke and mirrors. While it might help to relieve some of the recent stresses on bank capital, the fundamental issue is still nonperforming assets that are rising in number, in an economy that is headed for something between the 1974-75 recession and the Great Depression.

I fully expect bank stocks to eventually head lower again at some point. But, with Q1 reporting only a month away, we could see this rally extend into Q2, as bank asshat hopefuls slice and dice this thing with a Slap Chop. Who knows?

If you’re playing the bounce in the banks, get ready to take profits at the drop of Bernanke’s hat (which, unlike vain bald men, he nevers wears). You also might want to think about getting out a little early before the rest of the crowd hits the exits.

Just saying…………….

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Stock Positions for “Optimal Alpha”

Here are the current positions on the stocks I bought yesterday, as of today’s close. 

IX          +18.14%
PVA      +13.76%
TXT      +11.13%
WTI      +10.64%
GDP      +10.02%
SFY       + 8.02%
OSG       + 7.50%
CRZO    + 6.11%
BBY      + 5.73%
RIG       + 5.56%
AFL       + 4.80%
PETD     + 3.79%
QCOM    + 3.06%
DOW      + 2.80%
WGOV   + 2.67%
DRI        + 2.01%
AMGN   – 0.38%
X             – 2.14%

Today, I added NFLX @ $40.56  and ASIA @ $ 14.90 late in the day, replacing PFG and AFAM, which I sold yesterday.

As I indicated in a previous post, the resistance area for the S&P was 745-780. We failed to pass through that today, although we got close with a 778 reading.

My gut sense was that today was critical that we got through that area and exceed 790, or the risk would increase that we would end up reversing the current rally. Obviously, we didn’t do that today.  We shall see what tomorrow brings.

Also, the NYSE Bullish Percent Index closed today slightly above 24%, or a 2% increase from yesterday, but has not approached the 30%  level yet, to sufficiently cause me to push all the chips back on the table.

This “Optimal Alpha” stock account is currently about 22% stocks and 78% cash as of today’s close.

(Disclaimer: not an offer to buy or sell securities. Investing involves risk. Each individual investors situation is different. This information is for educational purposes only. Securities listed above do not necessarily represent an endorsement by IBC, its owners or affiliates. Trade at your own risk.)

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Bought More SH, MYY, RWM, TBT, et. al.

Prior to this late afternoon sell-off, I added to the inverse ETF positions that cover the broad indexes in the large, mid and small cap space for my global macro portfolio.

My basic strategy is looking more like net short the major U.S. indexes and long BAC, FDO and TXT (for now). Essentially, my strategy here is to stay short, in each of the S&P 500 , S&P Midcap 400 and Russell 2000 indexes. I will, however, be keeping minimalist long positions in BAC (large cap), FDO (midcap) and TXT (small cap) to play those stocks, yet remaining 5% net short in each of their respective asset classes overall.

Also added more TBT, which is now slightly over 7.5% of the portfolio. This is also hedging a small amount of TLT which I purchased. I also added some PFF to the mix, and a stared a position again in HYG (5%).

Added some FXE, FXF, as well to hedge dollar declines.

DBC also made it’s way onto the list of buys today to track the commodity index. Small 5% position established. It all seems quite strange, but true.

I’ll update the portfolio position tonight in The PPT.

Good day.

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New Positions

This morning I bought stocks

PVA  $8.57 

TXT  $5.30

WTI  $5.26

 X   $18.20

DOW  $7.84 

AFL  $15.41

GDP  $16.06

SFY $5.98

PFG $8.20

IX  $11.85

RIG  $54.63

CRZO  $8.18

PETD  $11.08

DRI  $29.31

BBY $30.01

QCOM $36.20

WGOV  $9.34

AMGN  $51.95

AFAM $18.65

OSG  $22.11

Each position representing about 1% of account equity. Inital 10% trailing stop loss.

Looking for short term milk money.

(Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell).

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