Last night we had an 83% bearish poll in After Hours with Option Addict. This is only the second time I’ve seen a sentiment poll exceed 75% bearish. The last time was the evening of 8/25/2015, which was the evening prior to the biggest % rally of 2015.
With a few hours left in the session yesterday, the only commentary I found on the markets were traders climbing over one another to short, take puts, or get bearish into the bell. As mentioned here yesterday, there were significant bullish divergences across the board yesterday.
Breadth was extreme again at the open this morning. However, if we see strength today accompanied by any negative divergences, I could take some downside bets into that.
Picked up $GOOGL weeklies this morning…love biotech here.
OA
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Any chance for a sustained rally would totally depend on a very weak
number in Friday’s employment report and I don’t think that’s possible .
And since we get a sampling tomorrow morning I’m thinking the QQQ 103 puts for
Friday could work . Will wait until late today .
If the Russell continues to lag, I’ll lay on a short too.
Don’t fight the financials or financial related (BAC, PYPL, SQ, JPM) — all support the bull side
what do you think about taking shots at $HABT and $WING here before earnings on short interest?
The spot is tough for me. Seems pretty late.
Bot UCO 7.74….got my finger on the trigger to unload AMZN weekly puts but hoping for late inning comeback for the bears.
I stand corrected on BIDU and BABA — holy mojo!
As I look through charts I feel like I’m seeing the same basic 2-3 patterns (daily) over and over for different names. Do you guys agree or is that overly simple?
Are we seeing bearish divergences today? RUT seems to be catching up but oil is not playing along?
Not sure why I even bother to look at price of crude — too many eyes on it already. Took off my UCO position and added to AMZN 550 weekly puts.
what makes you so bearish on AMZN?
Why are you adding to AMZN puts when 30 minutes earlier you’re getting ready to unload them? What changed in your calculus?
This may not make any sense but in my mind either FANG stocks lead the Nasdaq or AAPL leads. As you probably know I am not a fan of FANG names (valuation) and my belief is these companies will be sources of funds for the entire year and replaced with value names such as AAPL & CSCO.
The trick is trying to time my entry into AMZN – I am not playing with big dollars but do feel that AMZN will trade down to low 400’s and (perhaps) the purge will commence this week now that we are past month end. So far I the market disagrees!
Bullish with a short FANG bias may just be cray cray enough to work
So you dont like the FANG valuation and youre playing that with weeklies?? Ballsy
This is my dream tape:
Oil down
Natgas up
Gold/GDX down
Stocks up
Began accumulating SCO yesterday. Will sell my long oil position into spikes.
Remember, no need to have higher oil prices after today’s close.
Somalian pirates have rowed up next to the ark and lit it on fire.
50 S&P upside vs. 400 S&P downside risk. Don’t overstay your welcome.
OA, when you say breadth was extreme this morning, assuming market breadth was strong, would you consider it a bullish or bearish sign? I’m asking because, if we don’t see any negative divergences (as of now, Russell is moving along with other indices) and we’ve got strong bearish sentiment, wouldn’t strong market breadth be a bullish sign?
I apologize if I’m asking a question in circles, and hopefully it makes sense. Thanks in advance.
Great GOOGL trade OA goddamn
I got headfaked too for some odd reason. Luckily I got back into TNA but I gave up 2% doing it. Amateur
Sold BAC Mar 14’s for double and weekly 13’s for triple.
Great GOOGL trade jesus
F.I.M.O.
Boom. 1970
Yeah this is turning into a full on “fuck you” rally
Only if it lasts more than one day.
Dude. The only reason the market was lower yesterday was to draw in shorts. Controlled selling. A massive “fuck you” rally. Well put.
Is this the area to lay on some shorts? 1970 was talked about as a heavy point of resistance
I’m heavily invested so I welcome a big rally. But who exactly is the invisible hand drawing in shorts?
Go back and read all my posts in September last year. It will teach you a lot about my methods of analysis.
I assume you’re talking about an “against the herd” indicator?
Markets are inversely correlated to the logic of most particpants
If that is true… how does one divine this general sentiment? Not sure a sample of fellow bloggers here is representative.
What made you think that yesterday’s drop was to draw shorts in when the down SPX volume was even greater than the previous day’s down volume. I’m not challenging your analysis, just curious how you got there.
Thanks.
How does one divine sentiment? Aggregate action and comments by participants. Fairly easy to do, just need to follow multiple outlets to gather a big enough sample.
My analysis doesn’t include your volume analysis, but it seemed pretty accurate nonetheless.
I’ve been fairly accurate at this stuff over time.
As long as you are excluding Bchu12 from the sample…
Nice job.
People have learned to stop doing that here.
Except Sethster.
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2016/02/10/unproductive-afternoon/
I actually think Sethster’s UVXY calls have been about 50/50 or better for about 1 year. Although sometimes he gets into trouble with the T+3 good faith bullshit. His IRA has got to be hurtin lol but he’s an indicator I’m interested in following too
It’s only the two times he’s said invest in $VXX. Those are the only ones I reference. Invest.
OA how is sentiment related to price because it’s not always wrong right, or even related. It’s best for calling tops and bottoms. It’s like when sentiment gets absurd that price stars to change?
No, its only when the majority take similar action on a days price changes. When too many people rush to one side of the boat, the market responds. It’s the pain trade principle we apply throughout the week on AHWOA.
Such a good observation
Is KMI red on a 300+ up day cause for concern? I know its still within range etc
I look at it like I did the market yesterday. Not worried yet.
thanks as always
P&F target for RUT now 1,260. Goes up with every green day. That yields a 20% upside target from here vs 6% for Dow and 11% for SPX
One more wave down followed by the final wave up to 1988-1999 (???)
Sold winners and small losers to raise cash in prep of going short by Thurs/Frid.
17 Handle on the VIX — sign of complacency?
Is the only time OA is ever wrong when having a “discussion” with his wife?
Nice calls. I’m a pussy.
OA – are we trading close to the top end of range you saw for the year? Thus you are considering adding some shorts?
Watching day to day for bearish divergences. The thinnest part of this range is here on up to about 2020 $SPX.
OEW Daily Recap:
“During the first two uptrends of the previous bear market, the SPX rallied a similar 8.4% in 11 days, and 9.9% in just 7 days. With the Major wave B uptrend now confirmed in all four major indices, we should start looking for it to end soon. At today’s high the SPX has retraced more than 50% of the Major A downtrend, has reached the 1973 pivot range, displays an Int. C nearly exactly 0.618 of Int. A, is quite overbought short term, and is displaying a negative divergence on the daily RSI. Plenty of technicals to start completing an uptrend. Short term support is at the 1973 and 1956 pivots, with resistance at SPX 1999 and the 2019 pivot.”
Nocturne, thoughts on the API data released?
Bearish. After the 1st of the month there is little incentive to support the price of oil until we get close to April 1st which is the last data point to calculate the six month average price of oil for credit purposes.
Thus I expect oil to trade lower through 3/23. I will likely unload most of my long oil after the number is released tomorrow morning. To date, the market has given both bears and bulls the opportunity to exit their positions. I expect the same tomorrow.
It is my belief that domestic producers are not cutting back fast enough to offset the imports. Cads, Mex, Sauds, & Iraz are all selling crude much cheaper than WTI.
I’ve been on the road for business on Friday and Tuesday. I would have sold all my long oil on spike to UWTI 1.94 had I been able to monitor the markets. Thus looking to sell on a retest of 34.00. Currently we sit at that price. I expect oil to trade into the 33’s in the morning.
Bot CSCO weekly 27 calls @ .08
Bot EYES Mar 7.5 calls @ .1
Just sitting here watch those biotech picks exploded out away from me…. son of a gypsy whore.
lol…I tried to pound that table.
Good news is that the market always gives one a second chance. Patience is always rewarded.
Damn $ADXS. I was out of the office yesterday and missed it.
Grabbed some $CUBE puts from $31.10.
Also like the look of $CNK short.
I’d like to add a long for a quickie, but can’t find anything I like just yet. I never got on $VDSI, so if that gets back to the $13.70 I was watching I will try to grab it.
What can u say about oil?
Refiners: FU I’m sending my stock back to Cushing & cutting gas production
Saudis: cutbacks? Ha!. selling our shit for less
Domestic producers: But we gotta keep the lights on. ..
Climb aboard the SCO train.
TWTR breaking loose — grabbed some weekly 19’s
Oil: Technicals favorable, Reality unfavorable. I have not lost this bet when shorting after the first of the month.
Bot SCO 158.09. Expecting another buy as low as 148.
Sold UWTI 1.92. My last 2 buys of UWTI sold profitably.
Now net short oil.
I am wrong if oil claims 35 on a closing basis and will adjust.
What happened this morning after the inventory report? Any concern about that being short oil?
I’m buying gasoline futures on the next universal selloff in energy which I expect is imminent.