This Market Is A Real Bummer

One of my newest positions, ETP, co-reported earnings (alongside ETE, a familial body) that rose 50% year over year, soundly crushing estimates. The partnership is putting out almost 7% in distributions annually and distributable cash flow lifted 11%.

The partnership is modestly priced and more than a fair buy here. The only conceivable issue in the report I saw was that they’re paying out a little more in distributions than they take it, at the moment (and not for long if this kind of growth keeps up). And a little over a month ago ETP announced plans to build a new pipeline from the figurative gold mines in the Bakken region in North Dakota to their existing distribution network in Illinois…and the new capacity is allegedly already filled.

So following what can only be described as a stunning performance, the market is roundly bidding up units of ETP, correct?

WRONG

ETP has given back all the morning ramp following the exciting earnings beat, and ETP is now struggling to hold just half a percent gain on the day.

That’s just the kind of market we have right now. You can hear the oxygen rushing out of the trading floor. I have a couple similar positions that have all left analyst estimates in the dust (mostly after having already been revised higher), and yet they just can’t catch a bid.

I took a quick +4% profit from last Friday’s purchase of HCLP.

Retaining the core position.

The buys of CCJ, HCLP and BAS I made before leaving for the weekend are all working today, up markedly.

Everything else I have is also pacing, as we reached oversold levels last week that warranted a strong bounce.

I’ll give you a small hint: I’m personally terrible at these short term inflection points. My style is very much long term allocation to the right place at no particular time. It works; sure I have no complaints on my own performance.

But even though I have no personal trading skills, I’ve still made a killing trading the past few years. How, you ask yourselves?

Why with the help of The PPT, of course.

The quality work of The PPT has enabled focused investors like myself to become well rounded performers. Where before I would have been limited to strictly my own strategies, I can now diversify my tactics to a trading pattern around those strategies, multiplying my profit potential.

It is a community where each of us outsources our strengths to one another. And it is high time you get off the fence and add a subscription.

Why not?

The numbers were good, and I still believe in the uranium thesis, the risk of CCJ’s management being dicks notwithstanding. I have no evidence of malfeasance; only the hairs on the back of my neck (and they’ve been wrong before, though rarely).

So I added to CCJ at $19.30.

I bought back shares of HCLP and BAS that I unloaded on the run up, as they are both off 10-15% from the highs and we are just a short span away from a bounce.

HCLP reports earnings soon, and I expect nothing less than magnanimous triumph.

Well, the hubris post did it, and pointing out that when I crossed 20% YTD gains timed the top with almost cruel exactness. Just as we all knew it would.

BAS is taking the session the hardest for me, down almost 7%. They started a correction after earnings, and it looks to be picking up speed. My guess is a retest of the 200 day, putting them just over $20 a share, at which time I will be a buyer.

MAA is second worst, down over 5% on a disappointing…Core FFO number? FFO is very important in the real estate market, because it prices out depreciation of construction (which so long as your structure is sound is irrelevant). But they also just doubled their operation by acquiring my old position CLP, and seem to be continuing the spirit of development and expansion. They have sound debt levels making the process easier, with plenty of room to add leverage. And a strong wind at their backs in the form of a rising rent environment. I’m holding here because a 4% dividend and steady growth make MAA a sound enough investment once this passes.

Following next is a roughly four way tie between BTU, NRP, HCLP, and ETP. There seems to be a theme today of energy names being punished a little worse than the indices. Then again, people have hated coal for years and half the energy sector has huge gains unrealized with ample volume to round about escape losses elsewhere, so maybe this makes perfect sense.

CCJ had a good earnings report, continuing to kick the uranium market doldrums by personally doing just fine. Their long term contracts persist in rewarding them with a price well above the dismal spot market, and sales volumes have increased. So the market has rewarded them by only selling off 1.5%.

(Actually, I need to be honest. I am concerned that CCJ has managed to perform this well in this environment. Particularly because despite the better sales and earnings, they continued to lose cash – the only thing that really matters – and in light of the recent revelations of overseas corporations acting to enable financial games with their taxes. I’m going to be sniffing around very closely here, because I will not become prey to some corporate Enron nonsense)

AEC and silver are my “best” positions, each down “only” less than 1%.

Okay, so the market is getting clubbed. What do we do about it?

Well, if you’re in my position – and if you’ve been following me, that is quite possible – up still over 15% for the year, then the answer is pretty clear. You do nothing.

I can afford to do nothing here, to see if this hard drop doesn’t stabilize quickly and lead us higher through August. We should hit a bottom pretty quick. I don’t yet see a good catalyst for a major drop, outside of the regular bank failings and global “World War” heckling that usually bogs us down. For the moment, that’s no excuse to panic.

China, Europe, and most the rest of the world haven’t exactly been doing awesome before now. This isn’t news.

So there’s no rush here. 13% YTD gains is my floor. When I hit that point, I go to cash fast, because my year will be at least +13%. 13% because I was stuck between 10% and 15%, so let’s take the black prime number in the middle (scientific, right?).