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All Of The Oil Losses Shall Be Regained

It will not happen immediately, surely. There will be more volatility and panic. But rest assured that the rout in the oil market will be unmade soon enough.

HCLP is already back to $54. You could have purchased shares for $40 just last week. The markets were scared, but then HCLP announced a 9% hike to its dividend. Now all is forgiven.

BAS is back to $15 from $11.50 last week.

ETP is above $65 again.

NADL is flirting with $6.

VOC has regained $11.

Those are big comebacks. I told you, the scare was not about a looming slowdown in the oil and gas space. It was more about frightening you into loosening your grip on the precious. Now that Jimmy’s friends have loaded up the trucks, we’re free to stop pretending like that Saudi Arabia rumor was ever anything more than the flapdoodle it was.

For the day I’m already up another 2%.

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Sales – Stopped Well Shy At 3% Cash

I couldn’t bring myself to sell all the way to 20% cash. The waterfall left too many of my purchases underwater still and the hope of follow through pins me to my seat.

But I took quick profits in HCLP, VOC, BAS, and SXCP (I still own all four names, I just pared down sizing) ranging from 5-12%, and then I completely sold my BTU position for a 22% loss. That will lower the tax bill. I like BTU but it’s time to start thinking of April.

Despite having little cash, this lowers my risk profile substantially. The margin was worth it and if the oil and gas space has any sort of meaningful follow through, I’ll be back at new highs by Thanksgiving.

Gobble gobble.

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More Adds To VOC and SXCP

I added a couple more percent into VOC for $9.94 and SXCP for $24.80.

Margin balance is about 112% and I am now down for the year.

I know, I am breaking every rule you think you know. Let us agree that you do not understand me and I am apathetic towards yourself. Shall we?

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Margin

Watching the oil market today was simply too stupid for my brain to handle. It is ground zero of a frenzy that is being fed by the weak. This is the time when predators should be having an all you can eat Retail Trader buffet.

In that spirit, I dipped into a 5% margin balance, this being for the first time in years.

I added to HCLP for $41.32.

I bought more BAS for $17.76.

And then I threw some VOC on top for $10.90.

It is incredible – indeed almost unthinkable – but I have gone from being up more than 20% this year to gains inside of 5%.

Now is the time to press the envelope.

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Began Building A New Position – VOC

Today I started the building of a new position in the VOC Energy Trust ($VOC) by trading 5% of my cash position for units costing $12.68.

The exact details of the trust are nuanced and I will get into them later. The high level overview is that VOC has profit rights to a percentage of several oil & gas related assets until a pre-arranged expiration date or a total level of production is attained and sold, whatever comes first. I’ve reviewed the arrangement and believe that at current pricing, with the amount of time and volume remaining to the trust, it’s a no brainer investment.

At $12.68 and the most recent distributions to unitholders, the trust was yielding 12.3% annually.

If you look up the chart, you’ll see some extreme volatility. That makes perfect sense, as VOC is a leveraged play on the price and volume of oil. But over the remaining life of the trust, I think today’s prices are a solid bet.

More detailed analysis will follow. Cash stands at 23%.

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