[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xm6PGh2fvTg 450 300]

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Listen to me very quietly and carefully — You need to be on your toes at all time and keep a cool head like Jimmy Dean in a meat locker because half of what’s going on is designed to scare you into a blue paralysis that will render you immobile, and thus, malleable.

The market thinks you’re putty, see?  That’s why we’ve got guys begging off, folding their tent, going to cash, putting that roll in a coffee can and burying it on the back 40, right next to the bomb shelter packed with MRE’s.  They say “no mas!”

I say “oversold.”   I say that some of the wilier tells in the mining industry — like ANV and CDE, NG, MVG, BRD, and yes, even beaten down old XRA all jumped ahead 3.5 to 6.5% today.   What’s more, they all stayed up even after the selloff in the precious metals themselves (gold and silver) later in the day.

This is my signal to hold fast and watch the market closely.   I still think this debt deal quails the dollar, either by lack of confidence in the foreign markets or by dint of Bernanke printing press (Jackson Hole Conference right around the corner).

So I’ll continue to bide my time here, beer and NUGT‘s  in hand, and wait and see what spooky stories the market brings us tomorrow…

All the best to you, my fearless ones.

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Otto’s Family Picture

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Today was a significant day for the silver miners. With the death of Prince Otto, the word was sent by carrier pigeon to Mr. Bilderberg and the Illuminati that they could once again indulge in the precious metal trade.  Obviously they took that word to heart, especially in the silver section, with the more sedate Jacksonians like SLW and PAAS up 6.26% and 3.20% respectively, and the silver miner ETF– ticker symbol SIL— up 4.29%.

Even more stunning were the pocket rockets.  Of course the double raw silver ETF, AGQ, was up almost 10%, but some of the small miners did even better. My second largest silver holding  EXK, was up almost 12%, while AG and MVG were both up over 8% each.   Even ANV, the  mercurial Jacksonian gold stock, got in the groove, with a move of over 6.72%.

Even more promising was the chart damage today’s moves did on the silver bears.  AG is the cleanest example:

EXK had a similar breakout today:

I love how these rockets are leading us up like they usually do.  I am not, however “all in,” yet, as the $HUI continues to bedevil me by refusing to resolve itself.   The 50-day still remains a micro-hair above the 200-day EMA and they are flattening to a needle point.

My one consolation is that we’ve finally closed above both key EMA’s at $528.42.  That’s noteworthy, since we haven’t been above either one since early June.  Stay tuned tomorrow for some follow through.  I may even expend some cash.   I’m looking at EGO and CDE to continue moving higher tomorrow and to the end of the week.   My top pick for tomorrow, however, is GPL.

Tally ho!

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Silver’s lost its mind and is seemingly out of control.   It’s up another 75 cents tonight at at new highs in the upper $43.30’s.   Like a monkey that just had his rhubarb stick stolen, I’m standing here and continuing to sell into the whirlwind.

For example, I let loose another 600 shares of AGQ, this time at over $285.   I marvel at that price, as I can remember buying AGQ in the $20’s the first time around, and now you can make the downpayment on a decent Miami Beach condo with only 100 shares.  

I also sold more EXK, more MVG, and started selling SLW for the first time this year.  Last, I sold a large piece of my NGD, which had become cumbersome in it’s size, but is now more manageable.

Don’t get me wrong — I still have some 65% of my original PM positions, I just have a gut feeling, honed on many years of having that same gut knifed by this thinly traded murderous market, that it’s time to take some profits here.   Pigs get slaughtered, etc.

I will continue to look for a break here in the silver momentum.  I don’t expect it will very long when it comes, but it might be scary enough to shake some of our weaker hands.   I will look for more opportunities to divest into the whirlwind tomorrow as well.

My best to you all…

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What happened in the markets today?  Are you kidding me?  What do you think? Let’s not quibble about what is what.

We know what.

But today I have something different.   A piece from a brilliant work of historical fiction I’ve been reading whilst on vacation.  The book is called Glory in the Name by James Nelson.  It’s about the Confederate Navy in the Civil War and I recommend it highly.  Anyway, the one part I’d like to recreate here (with the indulgence of the author) is a description of the “model Southern Gentleman” circa 1861, just as the shells were lobbed at Fort Sumter.  

The words are from a patrician gentleman from Charleston, SC, who was educated at the U.S. Naval Academy, but who saw his duty with the Southern Cause in the final decision to attack Fort Sumter, in his city’s harbor.  In his own words, a Southern Gentleman speaks of his hometown:

It was where Samuel had learned to be a gentleman, and more to the point, a Southern gentleman.  Courteous to the last.  Studied, urbane.   Personally disciplined — a gentleman, he was taught, did not show womanly weakness of any sort.  Passionately loyal to his country and his state.  Unwilling to suffer even the hint of insult.  Tolerant of the lower classes, appreciative, even, of their labor, but always aware of their place, and his.  Kind to slaves.  These were the things that that made the Southern man, and the instruction was so thorough that those traits became a part of Samuel Bowater as much as his height and the color of his eyes.

Is that not the Monsieur?  How long as the South been awaiting his steady presence, I ask you?  Be thankful, small plebs, that he is kind to slaves.

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Mein gott, I cannot say enough about how well we’ve done today.  Let’s speak no more about it, as it may be seen as “bragging.”

Best to you all, Jacksonian stalwarts.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2m2FIQzal9U&feature=related]

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The knock-out makes the fighter a star, but there’s a lot of steps leading up to the fatal punch, that money maker.   It all starts with foot-work.  Ali had the greatest footwork this side of Sugar Ray Robinson, and he defined footwork as a defensive weapon in the famous rope-a-dope strategy, that combined an amorphous passive-aggressive upper body roll with a sly shuffle-dance against the ropes that literally sucked the power from the brutish giant, George Foreman, on that signature humid night in Zaire.

I advocate a similar strategy to assist in absorbing the brutal retaliatory flurries that will inevitably arise from this tidal bull we presently enjoy.  Roll with the punches.  Bleed some shares if you must — 10%, maybe even 20%.    I would not go beyond 30% at this juncture, however.   Keeping cash on hand is one thing, keeping too much of the nasty stuff and missing the rocket launch that is coming is another.

I hope this post will be timely, if in fact today’s hesitation leads to something more stomach churning.  Most important is that you do not lose your focus while the roller coaster whips you about.  

In the end, you must ask yourself the rational question:  Has any single component or fact set changed in the paper money destruction thesis?   If not, you must carry on to the predictable end.

Hint — We’re not there yet. 

EXK, SLW, PAAS, MVG on silver.   IAG and ANV and RGLD on gold.  AAU and NGD and PGZ are for your higher risk plays.  All of these on the expected dips in the next few days.

Pax.

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My fellow Americans… on this dark, dark day, when your PM positions have pulled back an egregious and insufferable one to two percent, I say to you, do not despair!

Do not feel compelled to jump on the gerbil wheel of drunken Chinamen.

Do not wander over hill and dale for the next Great Internet Bullshittery. 

And do not even bother getting short anything.  The Ben Bernank will shower all with increasingly feeble greenbacks.   Some will feel warm.  Some will point to value.   It will matter little.

Today, you must ask not what the dollar can do for you, but what you can do for the dollar.  At $76.25 or so, you can cheer the dollar on, and celebrate it’s deceased feline trampoline action by indulging in a select group of excellent names.  

They be SLW, PAAS, EXK, NGD, AAU, ANV, EGO and MVG.  

One other thing.  If you are worried about 5% moves one way or the other, and trying to catch every inflection, this game is not for you.   We are riding a wave of pure cement, and you are too small to challenge the intractable.   You will be entombed like a random concrete pourer on the mighty Verrazano.  

That is all, be well and healthy.

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