Guess Who?
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It’s very important  thaty you make your own inquiries in this world, and not rely on the expert testimony of even the chief-most of Lemmings.   There are many ways to skin a rodent, and each trapper has his own preferred signal.   One should not just adopt this ferret’s “inventory to sales” ratio, or that stoat’s “days short outstanding.” 

For example, I’ve offered you two macro-drivers that keep me optimistic in the near term:  Overall poor sentiment and the continuing degradation of the dollar.

I’ve mentioned here before that Jason Goepfort of Sentimen Trader had been warning for weeks prior to our current relief that bearish sentiment had dropped to levels equal or worse to those we saw prior to the early March ’09 market rebound.  

 That kind of bad sentiment doesn’t just provide a wall of worry for a corresponding bullish cycle — it offers a veritable Great Wall of China of Worry.   Look around the site at the posters pulling out great hanks of hair in disbelief that their prophesied market crash has yet to appear.  Remember this: the frequency of their ululations shall be your comfort.

I just hope they are not holding their breath.   Well, there’s always open auditions for the Blue Man Group, I guess….

My second contrarian-return to the mean reason for my bullishness is the fact that this current bull is powered by steam from a steam-punk unit. 

Well, er, okay… it’s either that or the fact the dollar has been plummeting since early June...

That’s quite a move in two months, no?   In fact, I for one continue to expect a rebound, and $80 looks like the right place.   That won’t mean I will discontinue laying the hot blade of lemming death to mine enemies, or lose my bullish bias any time soon.  There are reversals and then their are “corrections.”   The latter is all we’ll get here.

In fact, you all may want to take advantage of that bounce at $80, should it come, and grab some quick fire longs or PM’s you’ve been lusting after.  The way the dollar’s been trading since the Euro scare, it’s not shown a whole lot of relative strength, and even in a rebound, we may not have to wait for long.   

The charade is about up, I think, and pretty soon there will be a full fledged waterfall action on the greenback.   This is my reserved and considered opinion, of course, but one formed in the crucible of study and scenario generation.  I would advise you take similar steps to determine your own way, lest you find your next step deeper than you expected.

You know I like EGO, GFI, IAG and SLW here.   RBY is starting to move again as well, and watch for a break of $6.45 on MVG before partaking.   That may make the difference.  Oh yes, ANV is not done by a long shot, but it should pause for a breather here at $18.50 or so.  

Non-precious, I like farmer ANDE here, again.

Play on, then.

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Update! — Some interesting news from our 1.5 billion-count creditors.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgwJJ3pXvOw 450 300]

(Appropos of nothing, really)

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I don’t even know why I attempt to suggest other varietals.   Is it the desire to be au courant?  The obligation to entertain?  Devil-may-care hair in the wind type stuff?

I don’t know, but really… it’s just plain silly.  There’s a single bull market at play here, and this is what we are about.   I had a bunch of positions take egregious losses today, most notably those in the “hot but not” LED space, like CREE and (worse) VECO.    POWR hung tight, but I can’t imagine that nasty Friday WSJ article will leave it be, either. 

I even took a small bit of VECO off today, in the mid-33’s, because I figured it would be a while until I saw that position back in the drivers seat.    No matter, as I bought more AGQ with the proceeds and promptly saw it rise a buck and a half (to $60 a share).  Is there anything more exciting than having one’s steed cut down from underneath one in the midst of pitched battle, only to find a stronger charger at the ready?

That is why I was not down today, despite egregiousity in the above names and even some other hard metals like TC and TCK.  It was all due to the gorgeous strength of our gold and silver portfolio.    I speak primarily of the silver miners, including SLW, PAAS, EXK, SVM, MVG, CDE, SSRI and HL.   But the gold’s included prized champions like RGLD, ANV, EGO and IAG, who were stalwarts too.   

Note how the $HUI index held up today on the weekly:

Am I wearing cats’ pajamas or is that thing looking like it wants $520?   You tell me.

Then there’s one of my favourites, ANV.   She’s just been a trooper since we picked it up just under $6 last year, and is seeming to have no trouble moving on three times that size.  Note that strong weekly consolidation?

 

And the daily looks just as promising, after a decent pullback:

Another promising pick, and one I should leave alone and go macrame a duvet, or something “crafty” like that.  God knows I’m only dangerous going outside my “comfort zone” in the PM world, and He surely sent me a signal today.

May be time to re-assess and de-stress.   Real money is coming back into vogue once again.

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V.King Relative?

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Some people asked me about some stuff to buy on a pullback, and well, I still love Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] despite their pulling off the egregious “bought deal” $250mm + dilution yesterday night.

I think the buy is pretty obvious on the weekly:

If you can buy off that trend line in the high $17’s, low $18’s, you should be sitting in clover like a greedy leprechaun and his keg o’ gold.  Lookee here (sic) at the daily:

As you can see from the chart, I had an order in to buy in the lower $20’s region, which hit after I was out of the office today, and I’m perfectly fine with it.   That said, this thing could go to the 20-day EMA ($18.41) very easily an even a bit below that.   So I’m keeping powder dry.

I’m not going to post these charts, but I will also be looking to add silver on any weakeness.  I really like Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] as you know, but also [[PAAS]]   is showing great relative strength, as is [[EXK]] and [[CDE]] .   I might add to my Smaug’s horde on a pullback here.

Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] and [[MVG]] are the second string, but sometimes HL gets a real boost from the local alchy’s with a sentimental touch.  Watch them all, and think about Apex Silver Mines Limited [[SIL]] as a catch all in the realm of [[GDX]] , except for silvers.

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Best to you, Jake.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yv0MEMyot3A 450 300]

Hercules with Lasers… Go with it!

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It’s time to dumb it down.   Way down.

I am preparing myself for this coming weeks’ action by watching the classic Golan and Globus production “Lou Ferrigno’s Hercules.”   Watching this veritable feast of the cinema has –conservatively speaking — knocked out twice as many of my brain cells as would an all weekend black out date with Johnny Walker Red.  What’s more, there’s no hangover involved… just a rough couple of days of re-remembering my children’s names.

Which is all great preparation for what this market is likely to do should the dollar plummet down the nearest ravine, which I think it should do as soon as this bit of Grecian mess is resolved.  I believe that shall happen … shortly, as the Euro is already firming against the Swiss franc (which is actually made of cheese).  Soon it’s going to be hell for the Euro-bears, and Heaven Hill for we dollar bears. 

Here’s how I see the dollar resolving.  I think Friday’s failure to reach the recent highs and attendant turnover in most stochs is significant:

Not surprising, as we’ve expected the dollar to resume it’s downward drift, and now it appears that with housing numbers up, we have another excuse to expect inflation. 

Besides some of the recent gems I’ve spoken about, like The St. Joe Company [[JOE]] the land whore and the platinum twins [[PAL]] and Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] , I think I shall add to my Thompson Creek Metals Company, Inc. [[TC]] , my Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] (on a pullback to $76) and my Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] at market. 

I also like what [[MVG]] has done to her hair, and will add to Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] the gold spinner too.  Last, two smaller juniors that I believe I will be adding here are Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] and [[BAA]] .  

If I could only purchase one thing this week, however, it would likely be my “baby” — Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] which is just now breaking out all over again:

My best to you all, and Merry Hercules to you, too.

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Ha ha, just like my annual [[PAAS]] Easter Egg coloring pun pick, I feel the need to get that header in there every once in a while, just so I can feel young again.

I thank you for that indulgence, M. Le Fronteer Development Group Inc. (USA) [[FRG]] , you little power house uranium-gold junior, you.

Not since those halcyon days of  “Skiffles” [[SKF]] has there been a stock that moves so nicely whilst also providing ample punning opportunity.  What more can a semi-serious blogger require, I ask you?

And you likely remember this chart from the last time… we’ve finally cleared that consolidation area, and are seeking to secure radioactive gold gains (gold mixed w. uranium makes for the most posh nuclear weapons) with these targets:

I would like a short golf clap for frequent visitor “Employee8/Teahouse on the Tracks,” who reminded me of this holding yesterday and prompted this reminder post.  He’s also been very successful with his [[MVG]] call, which I have not yet gotten around to buying yet.  Startling, I know.

I would also like to point you in the direction of the recent Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] spinoff, [[EXGMA]] (which I’m not sure we’ve got in our system yet).  It was up over 17% yesterday, proving the good sense in spinning off everything you can in a bull market, and hoping the market takes that unlocked value higher.   

We are of course in a raging bull for the precious metals, and that’s indicated by the acquisitions which seem to be popping  for the smaller miners (see  [[LIHR]] last week and Agnico-Eagle Mines Limited (USA) [[AEM]] ‘s announcements this week)  so it’s likely the spin-off is now being reflected as a value play AND an M&A trade bait possibility.

Last, I am hoping to roll out a couple of more LED plays, as soon as I do a little more research in some of these other names.   Of course Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] are the monsters in the space, and I’ve already bedded my stock barges with their shares.   I am looking to add as I think this space will remain hot, no matter whether our President remains Green or not.   Cheap lighting is cheap lighting, and it’s the pennies that count.

Best to you all.

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