Lost My Shirt, Danglin’ by a Thread… Still Got the Girl, For Now
_________________________________________
Just a little bit longer, now I think.
I told you I took advantage of the Bollinger Band crash trade (thanks for teaching me this, Gary) today when I purchased some kookie SPY calls at 1082, yes? Well, you can see how that worked out. But then, these crash trades almost never work out right away, even though they seem to work out over 90% of the time, in the more intermediate-run.
Point is, I think we’re pretty close to a bounce, where I will GTFO of those calls, and hopefully back into some nice dry gold lame suits.
The gold market seems to be holding up okay, and that Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] weekly chart I showed you yesterday is still holding that trend line, if only barely. The $HUI index also looks like it’s ready to finish it’s plunge here as well. Maybe just a little bit more on the daily, here:
Oversold on the RSI, and the stochs are not far behind. I think the touch and go will coincide with the rest of the market, maybe as early as tomorrow. Here’s the weekly for perspective:
Still like the bigs, including Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] , [[GDX]] and Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] here, but also Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] , Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] and IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] . On the silver, [[MVG]] seems to be holding up well. [[EXK]] took a big dump, as the small caps will do, but I think it’s a bargain hunter opportunity. Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] remains your best buy in the silver sector.
Step slowly, if at all, and I will see you all tomorrow, God willing.
PS — The PPT has been invaluable the past few days. Fly has been on fire, and he’s even more available and open about his strategy there, away from the leeches. It’d be well worth giving it a whirl for the summer, I tell you.
____________________
_________________
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I no longer doubt your gold finger. I am sure these will all come back, AND MORE.
Thanks, I wish I’d gotten some VXX for my whooping cough these last couple days, though!
__________
Hanging with Goldie, still? That bitch will probably do you right. She’s still looking good long term, even with this recent correction.
…..speaking of bitches, don’t even talk to me about the Sawx until August.
They are starting to play better, though.
Poppi’s got 8 dingers in May now and Lester & Buchholz coming around but no one’s gunna catch TB … Sox have their hands full trying to beat the Yanks out for the WC …
Meanwhile the C’s are gold like Jake …
Alphadawgg, it is really good to see your name back here again! You probably don’t remember mine, but I remember you, and your blog, and on the PPT. It’s nice to see you here.
Gold has held up far better than just about everything else. I admire your steadfastness. I added bullion yesterday and have not sold anything. I get a sense that most of the selling is liquidation due to commodity funds rebalancing or forced liquidation. I think we comeback strongly in the next couple of weeks. That could give us a very nice handle to the beautiful cup that has already formed.
Some stats I compiled that may be of interest to the group:
From the Feb intra-day low to the intra-day peak of the recent run:
Gold (continuous contract) rose: 19.57%
GLD rose: 19.52%
GDX rose: 38.37%
DGP (double long) rose: 47.37%
From the Intra-day peak to yesterday’s intra-day low:
Gold (continuous contract) dropped: 5.91%
GLD dropped: 5.95%
GDX dropped: 17.94%
DGP dropped: 11.03%
DGP is clearly the winner for growth and has lower volatility than the mining ETF. I am monitoring this as we go forward as the sovereign debt issues may focus the market more narrowly on the metal than the producers, especially if this is truly the start of a much deeper equity slump.
Of course DGP is a derivative, there are no company assets or physical assets underneath it, just exposure to price. But I am surprised that a (monthly) double long ETF has better performance and lower volatility that the miners.
That is really interesting about DGP.
That’s interesting about GDP, but i wonder if your sample size is too small (or in this case, too short).
DGP is a derivative, but it’s also exponential in it’s “math,” so I’m wondering if the “mostly up” quality of that period’s trading does not skew your results somewhat. GLD has been very strong in the storm here as well, as we have seen a very large — and very constant — rise in the underlying price of gold. If POG started to sell off in the same manner that it ramped in your selected period, it’s likely DGP would be that much worse on the downside.
I am probably not explaining my self clearly enough, but perhaps if you visualized your sample graphically as an almost 45 degree slope to the right, finished by a very short “handle” which has not really come down that far at all in comparison to the previous rise?
All that said, in a trending bull like we have, DGP is probably a very nice vehicle. I would still watch it closely, however, as I do w. AGQ (which is admittedly much more volatile).
__________
The results are only for the recent interval reflecting what the market has done most recently which is bullish. They say nothing definitive about the future as market cycles change continuously. certainly in a bear market we could see the DGP drop more than the miners – perhaps a lot more. Watching it closely is a must – as is everything now in this market.
I was expecting to see a little more strength in gold today than I am seeing. Granted we were down in the $1167 ish range overnight but I had hoped the bounce today would have more oomph. Seems more like an ooze.
When gold gapped down on Wednesday it became a short. Until and unless if fills that gap down, the chart is suggesting a target in the $800s is possible. I got totally out of gold – – but still have a couple silver diggers.
Want to make a wager on whether it breaks $1,000 again or not?
___________
Already done. Bets that it’ll go to the $800s by mid-September are still available with the bookie giving a 10 to 1 payout.
I hope you bet small.
That’s what they call in the horse racing industry a “sucker’s bet.”
Hence, the pricing.
Curious, what’s the payout going $300 the other way?
Michael Berry on EXK
http://www.discoveryinvesting.com/uploads/MNs_Friday__May_21__2010.pdf
I’ve been reading M. Berry for years now. He really does his DD, eh?
Another silver company that is often talked about at the Gold Report is First Majestic Silver (CA:FR) which I just started buying and am pretty excited about.
They have three operating mines in Mexico and 345 million ounces of inferred silver. They just tripled their profits.
They don’t trade on the AMEX, yet (pink sheets), but thought the Canadian traders might be interested. I am buying it for my husband in his account also, and hoping it will make up for that BQI he is still kind of ticked off at me over. LOL
Very good read. Thanx. This is one of my favorites.(EXK)
Jake – with your PM options, how far out do you go? Nearest expiring or at a specific cyclical month? Thanks!
I have not done PM options for a while, save to hedge long positions (ie, sold calls). In that case, I tend to get the best bang for my buck (and least risk) by selling near month plus one.
For long call positions, I think you want to be at least three months out, but I don’t recommend a lot of leverage in these names… it’s a recipe for disaster.
__________
my trading strategy is kinda a recipe for disaster actually… hmmm
anyone else got a gut feeling we plummet near the close? Not sure too many people want to hold over the weekend after this week.
then again, i’ve got a few buy orders in so wtf do i know.
“Ya got no guts, Rock!”
______
Bought a starter in CEF @ 14.35. Though I have the suspicion i’ll be adding the next 1/2 at a lower price.
Mmm nice legs!
In commenting on the pulp novel cover, you must speak “pulp talk” —
i.e., “That dame sure has some nice gams!”
________
I’ve got a ‘back up the truck’ order in for EXK at $3.20
funny. so do i. exactly at 3.20. put it in this morning. are we related?
possibly – my dad liked to shag
Speaking of which, what kind of beer do you really like, or will you drink my harsh hops?
______
#6 – what was that beer last time by your place?
Had a Vking kick to it.
DMG- puts me off for 2 days every time but so tasty – Sly Fox Pale Ale.
JG- i love the hops. Dont be silly. Harpoon IPA my favorite of the bunch. I love the CLs too especially if im schooling you on the bocce court for 12 hours in the baking sun. Heres a good crib sheet: beer = #6
DMG- puts me off for 2 days every time but so tasty – Sly Fox Pale Ale.
JG- i love the hops. Dont be silly. Harpoon IPA my favorite of the bunch. I love the CLs too especially if im schooling you on the bocce court for 12 hours in the baking sun. Heres a good crib sheet: beer = #6
This is why the Gint site is the only site worth reading…a mix of insightful of market talk from our host and some good old fashioned man talk…..
The V.King said…”a mix of insightful of market talk from our host and some good old fashioned man talk”
“of” …what a clean and jerk …..
no clean and jerk….French Burgundy….fuck-o
A Billionaire Goes All-In on Gold (partial WSJ)
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704167704575258783702875778.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories
More on Thomas Kaplan / Tigris Financial:
http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2010/0412/outfront-gold-kaplan-novagold-soros-paulson-golden-boy.html?boxes=Homepagechannels
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Kaplan
For the next guy that tells you there’s no difference whether you vote Rep or Dem.
____________________