“The Check Is in the Mail, Inshallah”
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The Turkey Gods are punishing Europe and Asia for not properly honoring Thanksgiving, as is proper and righteous.  

If you think, however, that we will escape the “surprize!” news that Dubai may default on all those re-donkulous island developments with which they were blotting the Arabian Sea during the height of the funny money period, well… have another bowl of stuffing and steel yourself for a margin call.

There was massive selling on strength in the [[SPY]] yesterday (close to $700 mm) and I thought that would mean Fly would get his 10,500 and “done” on Friday.   With the Euros getting emasculated in early Turkey Day trading (down anywhere from 3.2% to 3.4%), however, all bets may be off, and our sweet tongued friend may remain “family friendly” till at least the end of December.

In other non-surprising news, I sold even more Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] yesterday, 2k shares each, and to my horror, at prices well below their close.   That said, I am feeling more and more comfortable with my cash horde, and with my taking money off the table in these high falutin’ $HUI stocks.  

On Friday, I expect I will take the final step of getting rid of the rest of my [[AGQ]] (only 600 shs left, so not much) and selling some [[SLV]] and [[GLD]] for the first time in 14 months. 

I will not sell Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] or Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] only because I have not yet built full positions in those, and will take this pullback as a gift.  I have trimmed every other position anywhere from 30-50%, however.

I plan to celebrate tonight with some nice turkey and egregious amounts of California cabernet.  Caymus Special Reserve is my favourite (sic), but I’ll also bring some Freemark Abbey, as it’s a friend’s winery, and I’m partial.

Please have a Happy Thanksgiving, and try not to think too much about how cranes in Arabia (or other wealthy developing nation enclaves) nearly always designate a market top for most of the Western World.    

Best to you all, my friends, and watch the drinking and driving.

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Yeeeeeeehhhh-haaaawwww!

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Omm-nom-nom-nom.

Deee-licio-OH-SOH.

What do you do with a market that won’t go down like this precious metal market will not?

You continue to take what it gives you, like a nice salami & provolone with banana peppers, and rub your belly into the close.

If you were wise enough to see the imminent destruction of the currency with the “Three Lemon Slot Machine Pull”  (POTUS, House & Senate) we ushered into office in November 2008,  you– my friendo — are sitting pretty right now.

Finally, you can afford all the best poodle grooming salons, and when you take your wife out to Chez Cherise you can order two rounds of Appletinis and there’s no talk of “Going Dutch” — practically ever.

You’ve grown so bold you’ve begun to get cheeky with Dr. Fly and starting throwing jibes his way over such nettles as Flotek and the teeny tiny coffee jug plays. 

Oh yes, you’re bold.

Well snap out of it!  The market doesn’t grow to the sky and three beanpoles do not a salad garden make! (Or something to that effect…)

Now is the time to harvest.  In fact, it’s beyond time.  You should be selling down at least a third of your stash as I have here.

Today I sold even more [[AGQ]] — another 1k shares at $68.05.   Just 600 shares left, sob.

I sold New Gold Inc. (USA) [[NGD]] — egregiously late as it turns out.  They announced  problems with the Mexican gov’t on one of their mines today and were punished like a thieving child. 

I took 60% of the position off (8k shares) at $3.74.   My over 50% gain in that stock melted down to 34.5%.   Que sera.  

I also took down a quarter of my NovaGold Resources Inc. (USA) [[NG]] position at $5.33 (4k shares),  mostly because it had the same first two letters as the above loathesome NGD.   For some reason, I left Northgate Minerals Corporation (USA) [[NXG]] alone.

I guess I like X.

I did not touch [[EXK]] , Exeter Resource Corp. [[XRA]] or [[ERX]] today.

I enjoy things with X.

I also dumped about 15% of my Golden Star Resources Ltd. (USA) [[GSS]] today (2k shares) at $3.56.   Just shaving.  Just paring.  Just rebuilding the war chest.  

To that end, I sold one more thousand shares of Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] at $15.89.   I cried when I did it.  Fat, hot, soapy tears of real grief. 

In the odds and ends department, I launched the remainder of my OmniVision Technologies, Inc. [[OVTI]] , my Beazer Homes USA, Inc. [[BZH]] at $12.81 and $4.83 respectively.   

That’s a lot of trading for me.   My fingers are tired.  My cash horde is looming.  I am not gruntled.

Adieu.

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Happy Birthday to the Big Big Boy

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Days like today are painful.

For instance, today my youngest is four. I go now to his natal festivities.

There’s nothing that says “looming mortality” than knowing that this one — your last for sure — is finally gone from babyhood. Next year, the little genius will be on his way to kinny-garten (sic), and the home will become a near-empty nest.

(Note to self — send the wife out a job-hunting.)

And so it goes, I guess, as we shuffle on towards the grave.
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Today was also a meloncholy portfolio day. Yes, all my glorious precious metal plays remained strong and the recent string of steamer trunks full of cold hard cash continued to arrive like lost Titanic luggage in my accounts, much to the chagrin and further penury of the Palo Alto Bear Fund.

But I also continued to liquidate. Do you know how hard that is in this kind of rising metal environment? It’s damn hard. But it must be done, if I’m to fertilize further conquests with the renewable blessings of the Turkey Gods.

I sold another K of [[AGQ]] at $68.36. Only half a position left, there. I sold 4K of Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] — my favourite (sic)– at $15.93.   That was only 20% of my SLW stash, but still as painful as giving up a pinky finger to the Sawz-all Wars.

I launched the last 20 Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] December $16 calls at $5.75, and the last 20 Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] December $7.50’s at $4.70 each.

I also sold 5,000 shares of Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] at $12.18, leaving me 10K, and another 1,000 of Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] common at $21.61, leaving me with just 3k left.

I still have much to harvest and I may yet be late in doing so.   Such is the special sadness of the fiat farmer.

I am at over 12% cash on the entirety of the portfolio and much more in the PM portion.

I’m off to give a Big Boy presents. Best to you, and good night..

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Bow and give sacrifice!
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You don’t think this cocaine and eggs party can go on forever do you?

Be serious. 

I sold a third of my [[AGQ]] today.   I got rid of the rest of my [[GDX]] calls.   I sold Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] calls.

I sheeved, I shrieved, I shucked.

Tomorrow, I’ll do more.

All things in good time.

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I knew I shouldn’t have shorted SLV!
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Shorting silver in a plunging dollar market with gold on the move is almost as dumb as “going for it” on 4th and 2 on your own 28 , about two minutes to go and with the lead.

Heck, maybe it’s even more dumb. At least Belichick– with his multiple Lombardi Trophy mantle display– had an excuse to feel arrogant about his low-percentage play-calling. The silver bears, who were gold bears before that and stock bears before even that had no call to compound mistake after mistake by risking the last remnants of their capital on such an audacious call.

And now they are paying for it, or to be more incisive — paying me. [[AGQ]] which you recall I added when I heard that the “Reverse Lock” was shorting silver, is up another 1000 basis points this morning. I can’t imagine what that’s doing to the leveraged short ursines, but it’s gotta be something close to being drawn, quartered and then lightly salted/lightly peppered before being chucked on the grill, marbled T-bone style.

Amazingly, silver has decided to catch up to gold this morning, with an over one dollar move (price of silver is up $1.02 cents as I type this, or 5.9%) today, the silver to gold ratio now stands at a stunningly low 62x, down from 64x as of late last week.

Gee, I wonder if that move to rationality is going to continue (remember, gold is continuing to rise as well)?

You’ve seen this list before, but at the risk of boring you, go get ’em:

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] [[PAAS]] [[EXK]] Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] [[CDE]] Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] And a new one I haven’t talked much about — [[SVM]] .

Don’t forget about the pure bullion plays either. [[SLV]] is one time and [[AGQ]] is two.

Happy hunting, and watch for pullbacks. We are parabolizing here, so I am talking off the rest of my call positions today.

Best to you all.
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Addendum: Platinum is another precious metal in “catch up” mode. I’ve banged the drum on [[PTM]] enough times that you should have at least a little. This should be a continuing move, here, however. I am also considering, but have not yet bot [[PAL]] , which is a dodgy stock even in the best of times.

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Be-ware!  Be-ware! Beware-Beware-Beware!

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What makes a bear run nekkid onto the piazaa you ask?   The promise of honey, mayhap?

Mayhap, rabbit… mayhap.

But you simply must ask, if only for the sake of  civilized conversation — what honey is available, Mr. Silver Urso?

I mean, the traditional price ratio between gold and silver has been in the 40x area in our “modern era”  (i.e., “Post-Rooseveltian gold grab, 1933.” )

This evening, with gold at $1,108/oz. and silver at $17.39, that ratio stands at a hamster’s whisper below 64x.

For those scoring at home, that’s a 60% premium to the historical ratio.  

Ironically, it appears shorting [[GDX]] is a better roll of the dice than shorting [[SLV]]  here.   Why you’d be cracked enough to short either, however, is a question for those better schooled in psychiatry than myself.  

I vote “secret death wish.”

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On seeing the Silver Bears in the Piazza this morning, I loaded a bit more [[AGQ]] — 400 shs at $60.55, bringing us within 600 shares of my longer term goal of 4k total.    First target on SLV is $18.08 and then $19.13 and then to the old highs at $20.66.   

Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] broke to post-crash highs today, and will run into congestion at $15.00, so be nimble here.

Looks like [[GLD]] is comfortable staying over $106.50 at least for now.   Whether we continue to break out, or will consolidate some here, will depend on that line, I believe.

On non-PM related topics, Jacksonian Long Term Hold Monsanto Company [[MON]] had a BTFO on the revelation that more of their universe-changing IP is being rolled out earlier than expected.  

Odd, no?  

Get Frankenfoods or go eat a frankfurter, hippies! 

I sold half my $70 strike November MON calls that I bot on the Bollinger Band crash trade back in the high 60’s a week or so back, and am holding the rest to dispense with on a follow-up tomorrow.    Or not, if none materializes.  

Also, [[BIOS]] continues to btfo, despite my having sold half my position in the high 7.90’s.   I will continue to hold as a result of this continued move.

Good luck, piazza pizza eaters.

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UPDATE:  Some fun facts for the healthcare debate crowd, courtesy of The National Center for Policy Analysis.

Enjoy!

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