Be-ware! Be-ware! Beware-Beware-Beware!
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What makes a bear run nekkid onto the piazaa you ask? The promise of honey, mayhap?
Mayhap, rabbit… mayhap.
But you simply must ask, if only for the sake of civilized conversation — what honey is available, Mr. Silver Urso?
I mean, the traditional price ratio between gold and silver has been in the 40x area in our “modern era” (i.e., “Post-Rooseveltian gold grab, 1933.” )
This evening, with gold at $1,108/oz. and silver at $17.39, that ratio stands at a hamster’s whisper below 64x.
For those scoring at home, that’s a 60% premium to the historical ratio.
Ironically, it appears shorting [[GDX]] is a better roll of the dice than shorting [[SLV]] here. Why you’d be cracked enough to short either, however, is a question for those better schooled in psychiatry than myself.
I vote “secret death wish.”
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On seeing the Silver Bears in the Piazza this morning, I loaded a bit more [[AGQ]] — 400 shs at $60.55, bringing us within 600 shares of my longer term goal of 4k total. First target on SLV is $18.08 and then $19.13 and then to the old highs at $20.66.
Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] broke to post-crash highs today, and will run into congestion at $15.00, so be nimble here.
Looks like [[GLD]] is comfortable staying over $106.50 at least for now. Whether we continue to break out, or will consolidate some here, will depend on that line, I believe.
On non-PM related topics, Jacksonian Long Term Hold Monsanto Company [[MON]] had a BTFO on the revelation that more of their universe-changing IP is being rolled out earlier than expected.
Odd, no?
Get Frankenfoods or go eat a frankfurter, hippies!
I sold half my $70 strike November MON calls that I bot on the Bollinger Band crash trade back in the high 60’s a week or so back, and am holding the rest to dispense with on a follow-up tomorrow. Or not, if none materializes.
Also, [[BIOS]] continues to btfo, despite my having sold half my position in the high 7.90’s. I will continue to hold as a result of this continued move.
Good luck, piazza pizza eaters.
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UPDATE: Some fun facts for the healthcare debate crowd, courtesy of The National Center for Policy Analysis.
Enjoy!
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I concur
You have the whole winship thing going on oveh heah……….
Do you also walk around in a white robe and sandals?
Indeud…. when I’m not walking around wearing nothing but smeared axel grease, nail- toed brogans and a stove pipe hat.
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BURT! Save me now!!
BE-WARE BARE BEARS!!!!! I read today that the total COMEX silver positions are net long at present. I read last week about a record total in all markets short position in silver but maybe that is BS? SLW just reported record production and forecast huge increases in the next few years. When silver crosses $20, I will take out some of my coins and play with them.
The shorts in silver are not BS, it’s actually what those of us holding silver are counting on. Men will murder each other and offer me their homes and wives before I let them cover.
Sir Gint,
Forgive me for changing the subject from beloved precious metals to something a bit more dissolute.
Is it possible to defend POT/MOS/IPI here aside from the usual argument of dollar destruction? It is easy to see the longer term positive view should the dollar hold today’s levels, but how do these piggies hold up when corn prices tank after the North American harvest concludes in a few weeks?
Thanks!
Signed,
Swimming In A Pool Of Fertilizer
I know I answered this last night, but it seems my answer disappeared into the ether.
I am of a mind that the ag stocks will rebound nicely here, and join the precious metals in the commodity rebound, even to a greater extent than our last leaders (copper, zinc, etc).
My only question is “when?” I still own ANDE, though I sold some reluctantly the other day to capture my long term gains before they went away completely. I like BG, ARA, MOS and POT. Don’t know much about IPI.
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Jake,
Did you see that Van Eck’s is coming out with a new ETF for the juniors? It will trade under the ticker GDXJ, and I thought it might open for trading this week, but it hasn’t yet.
I have a link that shows the components of the fund and it is very interesting, the companies they will hold. HL is one of the major components, as well as a couple of your silver picks. I love that they will hold 38 juniors, I mean we can’t buy all of them, so this is really going to be sweet, IMO.
I have some dry powder and will buy as soon as it trades, and then sell out of the companies I hold that the ETF holds. The whole thing about trying to decide which juniors to buy, and watching them all, is a pain in the neck and starting to give me a headache, quite frankly. LOL
I am going to add RGLD, as well. I’m finally taking your advice on that. And I did get SLW, finally.
Check it out, if you haven’t already. I am really interested in your thoughts on it. Thank you!
http://etfdailynews.com/blog/?p=7434#more-7434
I’m going to go with my friend Gary on this one and say I will likely continue to hold individual burritos of this size, as you buy these things for the lotto value. A diversified pool of them will negate some of that.
Not to say I won’t probably grab some anyway…. 😉
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I love that they have Gammon Gold and several of the others that I haven’t been able to add. I need to go back and look to see if they hold SVM as some one on here mentioned that company and after reading about it, I wish I had gotten in.
I’m sure I’ll do like you, though and still hold individual juniors, like EXK and NGD, for sure.
I’m starting to hear a lot of buzz about Golden Predator (still too new and under two bucks so not for you, yet), and am watching that one closely. One gold analyst I read keeps comparing it to Seabridge (SA) before it went to the moon.
I have my eye on ROY and MGH this morning, fwiw.
I do not know this golden Predator… sounds like an Air Force Veteran’s Day special.
Happy V-Day to our vets!
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Yeah, I like ROY. I used to harp on it all the time in the PPT. Glad to see you warming up to it.
Just for a trade. Don’t get me wrong, ROY is dogturd compared to RGLD. If youown no RGLD, you should convert your ROY “immedietment!”
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Jake, I have been pleased as punch with my ~20% gains or so in EXK & ANV in the last week or so. However SLV has me stymied. I’d appreciate your perspective on this ETF.
SLV is going to be less action oriented as, like the ETF GLD is to gold, it’s just the bullion price of silver.
That said, you noted my ratio disparity above, no? That should mean good things for SLV, and is why I added to AGQ (double silver) yesterday.
SLV is up 2% in pre-market, btw.
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Take a moment to look back at one of Jake’s posts from early July and the prices on many of the stocks we continue to get his advice on months later– wow– thanks so much Jake for coaching us week after week on these stocks (With your help I’ve been in GLD, SLV, SLW, ANV, RGLD, EGO and am looking to add MON, a copper, and platinum soon)
http://ibankcoin.com/jakegint/2009/07/11/a-semi-vacation-week/
For sure Lindsay, you need some copper. I dropped my PTM a while ago. I don’t even know why. Just got tired of looking at it. Not too bright, hey?
Buy commodities when they are boring.
Natural gas is starting to become extremely boring.
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Maybe Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH) would be a good one to get into now for natty gas.
CHK for safety.
PGH is okay, but the Canuckistanian Throat Cutting Tax Situation with the royalty plays is tres annoying.
That said, I still own a little PGH from the good old days when the socialist Canucks were at least smart enough to leave the golden geese alone.
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thx chanci and Jake– I’ve been eyeing nat gas for weeks and wanting to start building
position (copper too) so will dive in this week.
Can you define the Bollinger Band crash trade or is it proprietary information? Thanks in advance.
No, not at all, and I give full credit to my friend Gary Savage for for educating me on it in the first place.
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The junior gold ETF was supposed to start trading yesterday according to Van Eck’s site, at $25. But I still can’t pull up the ticker.
I wonder if it will be better to wait and see if the price comes down, or probably just leg in slowly at 1/4 position.
Here is link to Van Eck Global’s site, if anyone wants to take a look –
http://www.vaneck.com/index.cfm?cat=3192&cGroup=ETF&tkr=GDXJ&LN=3_02
It starts today.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/172719-van-eck-s-highly-anticipated-market-vectors-junior-miners-etf-is-set-for-its-debut
Does anyone else see a huge buy of GDXJ at $499.99 when the thing is trading @ $25.55?
Devildog????
Have to be misprints (or suckers).
I bought some for 25.37, just a small position.
Sold the last 10 MON contracts (out of 40 total) at $6.25 (the others went for 5.45 earlier this morning).
Those last shares garnered a 216% return in a little more than a week —>> the POWAH of the Bollinger Band Crash Trade revealed!
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Nice.
Selling out of my MON calls as well, here north of $6 for a 100%+ return in 5 days.
Indeud.
way to go guys!!
Marc Faber: Gold Will Fall to $800
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/faber_gold_will_fall/2009/11/11/284839.html
d’jou see this?
I like this one better, frankly.
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and this one from today w faber saying gold won’t go below $1000. again
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20603037&sid=az6qQ8ZuXg9M
Yeah, Faber’s got to watch his press output… messaging is a little screwed up there…
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Jake- what are your comments re this article? (in particular about the supply of gold)
thanks so much, Lindsay
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/6546579/Barrick-shuts-hedge-book-as-world-gold-supply-runs-out.html
That article doesn’t strike me as particularly well researched, at least w. regard to “peak gold thesis” etc.
It’s pretty well known that the bigs were all hedged stupidly, and that mine production has stepped down hugely in the last 20 years — which is why we’re seeing lesser yields today.
I think that will change, eventually – I don’t know of any commodities that “run out,” completely.
In the meantime, enjoy the run-up in price as supply fails to meet demand.
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Where did Greenwriter go, Jake? I know you had differing perspectives, but… Wasn’t he Cronkite, too? I miss him, hippie that he was. Didn’t he ever come back from his vacation?
Rock on, Greenwriter, this is for you –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OYUFcxBq1y4
Oh my God, I just realized that another Veterans Day has gone by, barely acknowleged. Except by Jake.
Purdy, WTF, do you think that if we did not directly serve, that we did not serve? I kept thinking about your post to Jake, regarding his service, and it occurred to me, that although perhaps he, and certainly me, did not go to war, through our family members, and friends, and country men, we have served.
I lost my dad to Vietnam. Sure he came back, but he didn’t really come back. I grew up on military bases, and although I didn’t directly serve I was in class every single time the announcements came. You know what announcements I am talking about. My mother served, even though she didn’t go to fight, she served. She served the day the base personnel came to her door to tell her that her husband had been shot down and was listed as missing in action, on the same day her little sister died of kidney failure. She served every time she had to pack up our house and move to another base, and then unpack again, only to be told she had to pack up again and move.
If my nephew was sent to war now, I would serve, right along with him, but I pray to God every day, that never happens. My God, we all serve, whenever our countries childrens, fathers, brothers, sisters are sent to war.
I love James Blunt, one of my favorite artists, but this song just totally pisses me off for some reason. –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsSB087-W6c&feature=related