Is it All Over Then?

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Yeah, we’re going to flush to the terlet here, with this Goldman Kabuki going on.   And now Merrill is getting into the act, too. 

Big whoop.  Like it’s a shocker that losers are going to try to blame someone else for losing money?

It’s the way of the world.   Blame someone else for your stupidity.   Tell me one thing, though… if you went to that Goldman Sachs trading room back in 2006, how many geniuses on that floor would’ve been betting on John Paulson? 

Yeah, that’s what I thought.  Not even Timmah was betting with Paulson back then.   Hindsight being twenty-twenty, though, let’s throw them all in jail now.   I’ve been in this business 20-years and I could’ve been in it 200… the story remains the same.  Chock full of losers looking to blame someone else.  Step off and take responsibility for your decisions.

Or just get the hell out.

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Meanwhile, Transport leader and king United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] made a giant move last week and only pulled back a little off of it with Friday’s mess.   Recognize, I believe it will pull back more with this long expected blow off we have expected, and we should experience more of this week.    But I also think it shows we’ve got more to go in this retardiculous (sic) market runup into the 2010 elections.  

Here’s where I think the buypoint for UPS should be:

This should also become a signal to you of when the market as a whole will begin to recover.  The Transports always lead, Charles Dow has yet to be wrong in over 100 years, and he’s been my sherpa for some of the worst market conditions we’ve experienced since the Depression.  

Put your faith in Chuck, watch United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] and look for gold and silver in extremis.  

My best to you all.

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Everything’s breaking gizzards these days except [[TLT]] , so why not get exceptionally “outre”  in your picking and “dabble in the exotics” as they say down in Derby Land? 

By “exotics” I don’t mean trifectas and daily doubles, but rather palladium and land banks in the form of [[PAL]] and The St. Joe Company [[JOE]] , respectively.

Truthfully, these aren’t exotic at all, and are ony further reflection of the deranged printing press inclinations of Sir Ben of Bern-yankee.  Why do you fight the Fed?  Why do you do it?  Rather, you should be buying palladium dogs like Stillwater Mining Company [[SWC]] and investing in Florida real estate that won’t be developed until the Baby Boomers are all safely in their crypts.

No worries, they are breaking out, and that’s all that matters in the end, no?  Come see [[PAL]] and then Joey.

 

Then there’s Mr. The St. Joe Company [[JOE]] , who’s really punched the number after breaking out of that long term downtrend line I pointed out a few weeks back.  How may of you took advantage?   Propitious that this is the season of Doubting Thomas, no?  

Here’s the line — “hard assets are moving again,” because the currency is dropping out of sight.   If [[UUP]] continues to drop, these are two more weapons for your bag.    Keep them secret, keep them safe.

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PS — Don’t forget about Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] and Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] even though I sold some of my exposure in these the other day.   These are “put away for the long term” stocks (especially CREE, which is best in class).  Same goes for recently beaten upon Monsanto Company [[MON]] .    Take this hammering in stride and nibble vociferously.  Long term, there’s no one who can match their IP assets.

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Watch for Gay Giraffes!
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As you know, I’ve been trimming the positions recently, despite taking an initial 2k share position in Central European Distribution [[CEDC]] today at $38.62 as announced on The PPT.  I also took the opportunity this afternoon to trim half of my Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] position in the high $79.20’s and 2k shares of Veeco Instruments Inc. [[VECO]] at $46.78.

On the PM side, I also dumped another 2k shares of [[CDE]] at $17.12 and 2k shares of Allied Nevada Gold Corp. [[ANV]] at $16.95. Do not fret, these are just minor sales in anticipation of a pullback.

I think we’re in for at least a brief pullback and I’ve been looking for some easy fat, sloppy targets that offer some bang for the buck, all giraffe puns excepted. I think I’ve found one in our old furry booted friend Deckers Outdoor Corporation [[DECK]] . 

“Lookee Here” as some apish Yankees would say:

 

We’ve all made some money on shorting Deckers Outdoor Corporation [[DECK]] in the past, let’s do it again, for auld (sic) times sake.

Best to you all.

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Glory Be! The Greeks have been saved with promises of free money from Eurotardish German bankers bearing multicolored sheafs of kroner, guilder, drachma and Japanese bearer bonds.   Let’s get drunk on Grappa, Stroppa and Babaganoosh, and dance the hairy mazurka with dark eyed beauties until dawn. 

That means all of my gold and silver picks are going to go skyward, at least temporarily, as the dollar is shrinking back to it’s old status as the emaciated mummy of the sovereign currency world.   I will have some junior players to look at for at least a short term pop below, but first, let’s talk about what the strong Euro will do to drunken Eastern Europeans.

For one thing, I think it will get Eastern European “wodka” distributors Central European Distribution [[CEDC]] moving even further than this pop last Friday showed:

I’m not going to post the daily, but set it for one year and look at that saucer breakout if you want to see something appetizing.   I think the $43 short term gap fill is a nice target, but I think this baby is going back north to its old highs just as sure as they crave fermented potato juice in Minsk.   Grab and hold.

I’ve been away a couple of days, the precious is going to go cardiac and I owe you, so here’s a couple of small-cappers that I think will move something nice this week.   First the gold play, then the silver.  

The gold junior is [[BAA]] which has been a laggard, but I think “not for long.”  Here’s the play:

Yep, that’s the “turtlehead” above the long term downtrend that I look for.   Check the daily now to see “whut-whut” on that downtrend break:

Yeah, that’s a turn for the better.  The same can be said, I think,  for my little silver friend [[EXK]] which I think is ready to really get with the rest of the beautiful silver peoples:

That’s a long termer, in my humble, but you can see where the short term targets will live while the dollar drops.  Keep an eye on [[UUP]] as your guide, but you should get at least a couple of days of dip out of all the Euroshort trading.

Poor bastids.

Best to you all.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qO66Rmi1Mw&feature=related 450 300]

Bring it!

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LED companies are breaking ursine snouts like Ranger Smith on a moonshine-induced weekend violence binge down at Jellystone Park.  PowerSecure International, Inc. [[POWR]] is another play that looks to be breaking out in sympathy.  The company is actually a mini-conglomerate focused on industrial stand alone power generation, but they had already been “dipping their beak” in the LED space for a bit before making this acquisition the other day.

As you can see, they are purchasing an engineering firm that works with a lot of the Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] technology from up the road in the Triangle Region of No’th Ca’lina.   I don’t know how much of the move this week is due to that Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] link, but it seems certain that this news is not hurting our acquiror, whose main business in providing emergency back-up power to stand alone facilities like supermarkets and hospitals.  

Personally, I think this stock was somewhat beaten down and the LED angle is just an excuse for it to head back to previous levels.   As you can see, this triangle breakout on the weekly shows that it’s headed in that direction:

 

You can see my targets above, but I might want to wait a second before jumping in here, after the massive two day move we’ve had.   Just as an aside, I gave this pick to the gentlemen of The PPT last night.    If you were non-pikerish, you could have hopped on this 10% ago.   Think about it, Mr. Pennywise-Poundfoolish.

Best to you all.

PS — I see the [[HUI]] topping at $475, at least temporarily, before making a run for the old highs at $517 or so.

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