Vacation from Vacation

 

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It’s called work.  I’m back home, and I’ve got tonnes of it.  I shall be out of the office again for three days this week and have all manner of personal and personnel issues to work through.   What’s worse, my right hand man is taking this week off (and deservedly so, as I’ve been working him like a Sherpa in tourist season).

I did have a chance to look through the charts tonight, however,  and I continue to believe two things.   One, this rally will continue, most likely after a slight pause that will either accompany or ensue from a dollar strengthening.   It won’t be much, but enough to continue working out it’s current oversold condition.  

This week would not be the week to add to the TNA (D’Rex Triple Russell), in other words.   It may be a decent week to continue looking at the PM recovery that firmed last week, however.   This is especially true if we’re given a bit of respite with the dollar strengthening.

As the daily AMEX Gold Bug ($HUI) chart show, that rebound off the oversold levels has occurred.  If the cycle continues as it has, we should see at least $490 again, and perhaps even new highs, depending on what the dollar decides.   Here’s the latest in a series:

I would continue to add to strong names that look like they’ve bottomed for this cycle, especially IAG, ANV and EGO in the golds, and SLW and PAAS in the silvers.   RGLD — the royalty banker — is also extremely attractive at these levels.

Feeling adventurous?  Gobble some EXK.   Or gobble some more, in that case.   I can’t tell you how much that stock reminds me of SLW, and even it’s ultimate parent WHT (now known as GG) in the bad old days of the early 2000’s.  I believe it will eventually provide similar rewards.

Someday, you will thank me for nagging you on all this.

Best to you all.

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“Opiate Dreams” 

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Don’t bother listening to any of the bullshit on Bubblevision, or even stuff you read on the latest financial blah blahg.  Unless it’s The PPT, you are wasting your time.

  Rather, you should concentrate on foreign commodity names with strong earnings paths, because the crap dollar is what’s making this thing work right now, and that will be true right through late October, early November.

You may remember, we have an election coming up?

Here’s the deal on the dollar.  It’s hugely oversold right now and very ripe for a bounce.  I think it gets all the way to $85 and maybe more before collapsing again.  Here’s the projection:

If you are in gold and silver, gird your loins.  We could see as low as mid $1100’s on the gold front, as a result of the dollar’s return to $85.   “Que sera,” I says.  “Suck it up,” I says.   We’ve been down this road before and we certainly know it’s ultimate end.   (That’s “up” for you noobs). 

In the meantime, buy some PBR, or some CEDC on any pullbacks– you can’t go wrong betting on Brazilian oil or Polish folks taking to the bottle.  Both are top “furrin picks,” on top of my PM hordes.  Go get ’em.

On the PM horde front, and with regard to a dollar bounce, I may sell some calls.  I will certainly let you know.   Right now, I am sitting, eating samiches, counting coin.

And drinking fine wine and eggsellent ales, of course.   I am still on vacation, after all.

Best to you. 

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCAw5EYzen8 450 300]

(One of the kids’ favorites, and prescient)

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I’m on vacation and have enough trouble dealing with the deal shinola from the office, so I’ll make this brief.   That $HUI daily Amex Goldbug Index I’ve been featuring these last few days?  Well, it’s finally hit the trendline, and now it’s time to pack those shiny things on.

I’ll bring me sack, you bring the gold:

Could we have a couple of extra days consolidation?  Sure.  Play it by ear, but stay on your toes and be prepared.

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9V5yUsrmdg&feature=related 450 300]

Sublime Beauty Clears the Head, No? ( And Dig Larry Kudlow on the Fife)

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On vacation and feeling only slightly more put off than usual by the usual cynical sniping on these fora.   I’d thought we’d put these AGW hand wringers to bed when their entire academic conspiracy was blown some six months ago at it’s corrupt heart in Merry Olde Englande.   But no, some control freak Big Gov’t types don’t even know to fold when their pair of deuces is called and found wanting.  

So be it, I won’t let the teeth-gnashers ruin this generally good mood I’ve been in, despite the real threats to our economy and freedom in these United (still) States.   For myself, I am going to continue banking on — and banking coin on — the ingenuity and innate elasticity of the American people, despite the embittered natterings of the “entitled” ignoranti who believe they are owed a living. 

But enough of that.   There are two stocks I believe are set to continue making outsize gains in the coming Bearcaploypse Now.   The first with which you are well familiar — the much discussed ENTR.  

It has not been taken the pounding so many did in this recent pullback, but you can see that it touched support last Thursday and now seems poised to finally break that $6.75 barrier.   Fly will get you ten this thing goes to $10.

The second near termer is the little brother to fast walkers CREE and VECO.    I think POWR has been consolidating nicely on this weekly chart while staying with it’s trend.   I like it to pop with any post – Fourth fireworks this week.   Look for new highs here, too:

You should use that trendline as your guide.  We very well could drop down to the mid $8’s here again, but I think that should present a nice opportunity.

On the precious front, I continue to love ANV and SLW here as the strongest launch contenders out of this pullback, but RGLD may be the cheapest value play of them all, this far below $50.   Your call, I love ’em all.

Be well, and take courage in knowing that even dumb left-leaning governments can learn, as the Ozzie’s foolish decision to tax their greatest exports and economic engine (their mining sector) was recently diluted by 25% (from 40% tax to 30%).   Only 75% more to go….  (eye roll)

Best to you all… I shall be checking in sporadically during the day, as my B’berry access will be limited this week.

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[youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghz4_kikLkE 450 300]

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I’ve gone full weepin’ Patriotic American soft on this 4th of July evening, just about an hour before by second son achieves the age of Manhood (were we Hebraic, we’d throw a Bar Mitzvah.  Instead we’ll just wish for mitzvahs for him).   Yes, he’s a 4th of July baby, and full of vim and vinegar and heartbreak, just like America.   Right now, he’s set on the Air Force Academy and flying superfast jets.  

Next year, who knows?  Maybe the seedings of a bad Tom Cruise movie.

But as always, I have hope, and that hope is dependent upon the good people of America, whom I meet every day.   None more so than in the marvelous South, God bless it.   Wouldn’t it be ironic if they had to secede all over again, this time in the hopes of preserving of Lincoln’s Republic?   Stranger things have happened… I passed by Lincoln Memorial University on the way to the beach … and it was in Tennessee.  

I must tell you, however, that things feel more connected down here, less amorphous, and even less cynical.  Maybe it’s the ocean, or the hermit crabs.   More likely it’s the people. 

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Enough philosophizing, I have to slay dragons.   A nameless droog from Fly’s blog (one who is not even a PPT denizen, curse his eyes), has remarked that we of the gold bug variation are in deep scheiss from this point onward.  

I have trouble accepting that prediciton and declare such droog, “asshattish,” in response.

Let’s look at our daily $HUI again, like we did two days back… and see if things have changed much:

I have trouble getting worried about this daily chart.   As you can see, we can hit $440 and still be okay, as we have not become totally oversold yet.   Still, that doji yesterday tells me we haven’t much to go here. 

Meanwhile, our nemesis, the Bernanke Dollar, broke some significant barriers on Friday:

That break of the consolidation zone doesn’t bode well for the dollar ($USD) going forward, even in this low RSI environment.   The weekly tells the better tale of broken hearts and broken trends…

New first target?  $82.oo.  That target should bode well for stocks too.   Be well, friends– and Happy 4th to you all.

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I’m going on vacation so don’t expect all the bon mots.  I’m supposed to be packing so I can’t waste time regaling you with nonsensical narrative.

I was taken somewhat unawares by the flagellant moves in my favourite names today, I’ll tell you.  But having weathered the lashes of these volatile Vincenzos many a time before, I’ve grown almost inured to the pain.  Such is the way of the long term bull-rider.

Here’s my daily take on the AMEX Gold Bug Index — the $HUI:

Not unfamiliar, no?   And it looks like there’s probably a little bit more to go, according to the weekly:

Let’s gird our loins for a little more, here, but it shouldn’t be all that much more.   The dollar broke through that $85 line I illustrated last night.   I can’t see that being a good thing for the strength of the dollar.

Best to you all.

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