No Gloating

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Sometimes we are dealt a great hand. It’s important to endeavour to make good use of it “whilst the sun shines,” etc., etc., but it’s also a great excuse to reflect on personal responsibility and even gratitude.

There’s very few of us who visit these here internets who are not hard working and deserving of well-earned success.   There’s nothing wrong with assaying how far you’ve come as a result of personal sacrifice, ingenuity, and sweat equity– and, correspondingly–nothing wrong with giving yourself an attaboy (girl) for sticking it out and getting it done.

As long as we realize that’s not the primary goal.  

We’re here a short time, and there’s plenty to do.   Staring into the sun or the mirror are equally useless activities, albeit harmless if performed in small doses.  

Better for you in the long term, however, may be this prescription — if you’ve climbed the mountain, you might think about what you can do set the next schlub up to do the same.  

After all, just from a strictly aerobic standpoint alone, there are plenty of mountains and plenty of schlubs out there to keep you busy.

Beats golf, anyway.

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I did finally end up getting some TNA today, albeit late.  I was running around in meetings this morning and missed the open, so I waited til almost 3 pm and got in at $36.18 and $36.28 — a full dollar higher than the open, which is where The PPT told me to get in.  

Lesson learned — never second guess The PPT.

I also increased my position in ENTR by a bit at the dreadful number of $6.66.   I will try not to read into that one too much.

You know what happened with silver and gold.   ANV in particular was really looking good.  Let’s not gloat.

Best to you all.

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Yes it is….

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I haven’t a whole lot to add, save that I expect a ripping bounce (at least) if not a further resumption of the dollar bow-out.   We actually came within four cents of hitting $82.50 after hours on the DXY (dollar index) and I wouldn’t be surprised if she tried for the 50-day at $83.06 after such a ramp.

That said, The PPT is very deeply oversold and that’s worked as a signal for me for the duration, so I will respect it.   The dollar has already busted into overbought territory on the 5-day RSI stochastic, and even the slow stoch is  catching up after being severely oversold just yesterday.  Expect volatility, but continue to expect dollar death.  It’s already back down to $82.25 this evening.

For tomorrow, in time-honored The PPT tradition, I will be soaking in a mixture of Epsom salts and TNA at the open.   As an after-bath aperitif, I will be enjoying a balsamic vinaigrette and gin reduction of ENTR, which wants higher, despite today’s crazy ride.

Gold is holding steady and so is silver.  Add to long term plays as you see fit.  RBY was even up today, God bless her.

Best to you all.

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Indeuuuuuuuuud, laddie!
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Well, Ole Glory Glory Ben’ll Doo Ya told you what he was going to do today, so the question you have to ask yourself now is : What ahh YOU gonna do aboud it ? (sic)

Don’t be surprised if all kinds of basket-woven skull monkeying comes out of this latest Fed announcement revealing that — sooprise, sooprise! — the wall eyed pirates are not going to shrink their balance sheet back down after all, and they will continue to launder the soiled curtains of debt they’ve been accumulating with the refreshing detergent of icey-Wintergreen mint T-bills.

In other words, have another round of champagne punch, my not so sober friend!

With the dollar as oversold as it still is, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some “re-invigouration” (sic) in our sickly green currency given the “all safe” pronouncement we just got from Ben regarding continuing Fed bond buying (doesn’t this just seem so very wrong to you??).   

 In fact, the daily dollar chart is already showing some signs of  coming off the oversold condition:

This brief respite aside, I don’t see the relief rally lasting very long.  One reason is the terrible technical damage we’ve seen in less then two full months.   The 20-day EMA has just today dropped below the 200-day moving average, and one cannot discount the steepness of this recent decline.   The smart money is getting out of the dollar for more dearer territories (you can probably name a few now, no?).

You can see the progression of the dollar decline more clearly on the weekly chart.  Note, we’ve sped to the first three targets to the $80 level, and I think it’s likely we’ll see a bounce back to $82 here before we resume the downward plunge…

The weekly needs to work off some of that oversold condition, and this announcement is likely a good place for the dollar to make one last sham-stand before heading once more to target #4 at $77.00.

Upon leaving your abode, please be sure to wear your especially configured tam-o-shanters with the lead-and-tin linings, in order to stave off any negative emanations from the cloven hooves and knobby horns of Jamie Dimond and the rest of the Fed Owning Banditos. 

We need you to stay strong, and we have our officers out in Manhattan wearing their lids already.  Be apprised and vigilant, as fines will be issued for non-compliance.

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To answer some quick questions, yes, ANV is still a buy.   I would wait on CREE to see how their lower revenue announcement shakes out, but I think they’ll be fine.   I wouldn’t touch JAG with a sixteen-ounce ball peen hammer, no claw.    It looks like it’s going to $5 at the moment, and there’s far better choices out there.

Best to you all.

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This oughtta be interesting….

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[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qO66Rmi1Mw 450 300]

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Just in case any of you Wall of Worry Erectors have missed the boat these last few important days, I’ve elected to make it much simpler for you with a quick chart review. 

You can print this out and put it in your wallet, and then whip it out any time the market is giving you the knackers or the frosty shivs.   We can call it your own homemade “C.F.A. merit badge” and if you send it to me with a self-addressed stamped envelope, I’ll even autograph it for you to make it all official-like.

Laminate it, why don’t you?

Now that you’ve got all you need to parse the markets for the next six to twelve months, I don’t feel so bad taking off for the Annual iBC – Fly Convention and Hay Ride (down 9th Avenue this year, accompanied by a Trannie Jazz Band, it so happens).    I will try to get a post in tomorrow, but as I will be traversing this great earth with the entire family, I would implore you not to get over-antsy about it.

ANV and IAG continued to knock bawls like Jerry Nadler at the last Matzoh Ball Deli in Brooklyn.   EGO and SLW also punish detractors, as do the other silver gods, EXK, PAAS and of course, MVG.   Hat tip to the Most Wrong Blog in Internets History for crapping on silver today and ensuring our big wins.   As always, your karma boomarang is most appreciated.

It looks like we got the beginning of a well-expected dollar rebound today, though I don’t believe it will amount to much.   We may get a bit above $81, but then, you’ve got your laminated cheat sheet to reassure you on ultimate targets now, don’t you?  So chin up, and hang on.

Best to you all.

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Guess Who?
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It’s very important  thaty you make your own inquiries in this world, and not rely on the expert testimony of even the chief-most of Lemmings.   There are many ways to skin a rodent, and each trapper has his own preferred signal.   One should not just adopt this ferret’s “inventory to sales” ratio, or that stoat’s “days short outstanding.” 

For example, I’ve offered you two macro-drivers that keep me optimistic in the near term:  Overall poor sentiment and the continuing degradation of the dollar.

I’ve mentioned here before that Jason Goepfort of Sentimen Trader had been warning for weeks prior to our current relief that bearish sentiment had dropped to levels equal or worse to those we saw prior to the early March ’09 market rebound.  

 That kind of bad sentiment doesn’t just provide a wall of worry for a corresponding bullish cycle — it offers a veritable Great Wall of China of Worry.   Look around the site at the posters pulling out great hanks of hair in disbelief that their prophesied market crash has yet to appear.  Remember this: the frequency of their ululations shall be your comfort.

I just hope they are not holding their breath.   Well, there’s always open auditions for the Blue Man Group, I guess….

My second contrarian-return to the mean reason for my bullishness is the fact that this current bull is powered by steam from a steam-punk unit. 

Well, er, okay… it’s either that or the fact the dollar has been plummeting since early June...

That’s quite a move in two months, no?   In fact, I for one continue to expect a rebound, and $80 looks like the right place.   That won’t mean I will discontinue laying the hot blade of lemming death to mine enemies, or lose my bullish bias any time soon.  There are reversals and then their are “corrections.”   The latter is all we’ll get here.

In fact, you all may want to take advantage of that bounce at $80, should it come, and grab some quick fire longs or PM’s you’ve been lusting after.  The way the dollar’s been trading since the Euro scare, it’s not shown a whole lot of relative strength, and even in a rebound, we may not have to wait for long.   

The charade is about up, I think, and pretty soon there will be a full fledged waterfall action on the greenback.   This is my reserved and considered opinion, of course, but one formed in the crucible of study and scenario generation.  I would advise you take similar steps to determine your own way, lest you find your next step deeper than you expected.

You know I like EGO, GFI, IAG and SLW here.   RBY is starting to move again as well, and watch for a break of $6.45 on MVG before partaking.   That may make the difference.  Oh yes, ANV is not done by a long shot, but it should pause for a breather here at $18.50 or so.  

Non-precious, I like farmer ANDE here, again.

Play on, then.

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Update! — Some interesting news from our 1.5 billion-count creditors.

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