Joined Apr 19, 2009
721 Blog Posts

Leprechaun Tyme

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qO66Rmi1Mw 450 300]


I don’t know what’s going on, but it appears we’re about to be overrun by Viagra-popping leprechauns.   I’ve been buying some stuff back in drips and drabs but have been mostly waiting.  I added AUQ today and bought some more IPSU too. Both of those seem to be working well.  Meanwhile all the stuff I sold last week is doing aerobatics.  That’s annoying.

This is why we keep the core of course.  We don’t know what the bull is going to do… especially at these end stages.

I looked over all my charts tonight and there are quite a few looking like imminent breakouts.  These include AG, ANV, AUY, EXK and even — strangely — goofy old BAA.   Even GDX and GDXJ look pretty good, if you are into the ETF thing.   It’s our old friend the gold bug index $HUI that will provide the signal for me:





















Most of those names in the chart above should break out with the $HUI index here, but I wouldn’t worry about having to pile in.   There should be pullbacks on all of them after the breakouts, so you should have ample opportunity, if you want to be cautious.

Besides the above, RGLD and NGD are rather stretched here, and I will be offloading some likely tomorrow on any $HUI break.

Best to you all, and watch out for midgets with orange hair, green vests and knotty chestnut shilelaghs.  Those fuggers will wield those beatin’ sticks.



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Never Sell Crappy Juniors


How many times have I told you? You never, ever sell your crappy juniors, no matter how crappily they’ve been performing and lying on the ground like so much offal shoveled out of the stomach from a slaughtered steer.

Case in point… crappy old Northgate Minerals NXG for you in the ADHD crowd — was bought out by Aurico Minerals today (AUQ). I have had NXG since the days when I told you all to buy “the three N’s,” or NG, NGD and NXG. Guess which one was the laggard of those three? Sure, it was crappy old NXG. But guess what? Crappy, poor performing juniors get bought out in bull markets. It’s uncanny.

Note in this weekly chart how we’ve been consolidating for 20-something months?  Something was going to come out of this saucer… and in a bull market did you really think it was going to be a breakdown?  That would be “betting on the silly.”  Never a high percentage play:




















And here’s the bonus move..  AUQ, the acquiror got beagle-slapped today.  With two beagles, even.

I know you are not going to believe me, but I actually own none of this stock at this time.  Why, I am not sure, because when I’d read the news today I was chagrined to think that although I was “winning” 28% in my NXG position, I was also losing 18.5% in my corresponding AUQ position.  But then, saints preserve us (and they do), I found out that I had zero AUQ in my system.  I am going to have to research my notes to find out why I do not.  Perhaps I toe-dipped and had a stop or something.  Truly, I do not know.

That leads to another serendipity, however…. Not a long while ago I posted the below chart on AUQ with a proposed entry.  I give you that chart with no revisions from the last time I drew it up.    See anything interesting?





















My best to you all.



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Greetings from the Land of the Sun



I knew you guys never really had to worry about Irene.  You see, “Irene” was my grandmother’s name, and she was a sweet and loving, and– most important– gentle soul.  Many members of my family are still inhabiting the areas of the Atlantic Coast where Irene was scheduled to visit, and I knew they enjoyed her protection.  By irenic transitive properties, you too were therefore to be spared.

Of course, we in Deep Flyover Country had nothing at all to be concerned about, save perhaps what quotient of sunscreen and chlorine would obviate a mild sunburn on what was perhaps the finest weekend of the entire summer.  Hardly a cloud in the sky — save for the occasional high cumulus drifter that might obscure a glaring sun for a blessed second — and the humidity at right around 15%.

What’s that you ask?  Yes.  Yes..  There was a slight breeze in the cooling air, but just enough to wick away the last of the late summer pool moisture.


But enough about all that as I have an incredible story to tell.   I had to come out tonight to the first reception of a regional conference to which I’d planned on attending for some time.  The subject and details of the conference are unimportant but the cocktail party story is the crux…

As soon as I had arrived at my designated hotel, I was ushered into a hotel reception room, perhaps best described as a high ceilinged “mini-ballroom.”  I met a colleague at the portable bar and immediately began scoping the room for clients of interest.   I noticed off in one corner stood a tall broad-shouldered man dressed in khaki pants a nice open collar Egyptian cotton dress shirt and a smart blue blazer. He was solitary, and attending to his Blackberry notes.   In my reckoning,  the man was not only distinguished by his size but by his decision to wear a jacket to a conference whose invitation had born the quizzical prescription “Business Casual” for dress attire.

Like him, I still considered such instruction to mean “sports jacket necessary” for all gentlemen.  Unfortunately, many rubes and charletons in attendance (including my own companion) did not agree.  Bourbon rocks in hand, I nodded at the large gentleman as I proceeded out to the veranda to discuss politics and finance with a past mayoral candidate.

I did not see the large gentleman again until much later, at the bar that evening as I was concluding a long conversation with an aging property and casualty cowboy and his rambunctious and large breasted third (trophy) wife.  I had excused myself to use the facilities, and upon my return, the very large man was sitting at my place at the hotel bar, chatting amiably with my erstwhile interlocutors.  Not wanting to interrupt him, I took the chair to his right and began a separate animated conversation with a pair of the loveliest “Sappho’s Isle” residents I’d ever encountered.  They wanted to talk horse racing and basketball.  Go figure.

My insurance industry friend must have decided my new companions were of  more interest than his trophy wife and the dapper mystery man so he decided to make his entree by shoehorning his party into my “menage a sports talk.”   He started by introducing me to his large friend.  I did not catch his name at first, allowing for my approaching near deafness and the blare of the MTV Music Awards (or whatever) over the saloon’s monitor.   He reached out and with a big grin accepted my name and my hand, enveloping the latter in his big catcher’s mitt paw.

I leaned in to him and smiling apologetically, mentioned that I had not quite caught his name… His eyes glistened and I noticed that his teeth were capped from canine to canine.  Their whiteness gave his grin a wolfish impression, and the voice that came again was deep and gravelly…

“Chuck,” he said.  Again, the gravel like an old stone road… “My name is Chuck Bennet.


I swear to you the above story is absolutely true and happened less than two hours ago.


Put some sugar on it.  You want an easy-peasy trade you undeserving pikers?  I mean besides “Go long silver and gold miners.”  That’s a no-brainer at least in a measured sense.

No, I am talking about this crazy IPSU sugar shack stock which is no doubt driving some adherents crazy.  Keep in mind this is a trade.  If you hold this thing longer than the appointed hour, and do not adhere to a tight stop (below $7.00), you are no longer my children and I will disavow your very existence:



Remember — don’t get greedy!  God bless.


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Hello Darkness My Old Friend

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-S90Uch2as 450 300]


I’ve come to speak with you again...

Because I see Bernank softly creeping

Left his seeds where I was sleeping

And the vision, that he planted in my brain

Still remains,

Echoed, in the sounds of Bernank…


SKF — Skiffles filled the gap today on Uncle Warren’s egregious self promotional purchase of BAC preferreds this morning, and at the same time hit my buy stop in that gap.   I am still only at about 25% of my desired position in the Skiffles, and I will gnaw at my target steadily and stealthily, giving myself ample room and time to digest my purchases, like a fat gourmand at a Polish Pastry factory.



















I fully expect Skiffles to head back to the $Two Hundo$ range again, and then some (recall, it saw the $400’s in the last bank conflagration).   I smell rancid bank death upon the breath of every visiting European tourist, and no amount of spearmint freshener will remediate it.  Not even good licorice.

Meanwhile, my 30% remaining gold positions all rocketed up today, in the midst of global downfall.   Go figure.  This is why we never sell the entire core, friends.

Not yet, at least.

My best to you all.



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You Think This Will Be Easy?

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It Sure Ain’t Lionel!


One thing I can promise you going forward is volatility, in everything, even your Commodores covers.   In fact, I wrote a whole witty diatribe about the dangers of buying “Fo’Teen” here — a.k.a. XIV — the anti-volatility hedge that’s supposed to be the opposite of the bear’s friend in VIX and VXX.   I wrote a whole spiel,  and tried to save it, and WordPress ate it for late evening snack.  Now you get the re-hash, bare-bones style.  Sorry.

It just so happens I was reading something this morning at the esteemed Stocktiming.com website that put me even more in the mind that the recently embattled “Fo’teen” is headed to “Ovaltine” status (that’d be “zero-teen” for the slow-witted among you).

It’s all about the Zero-based RSI indicator which I haven’t time to explain all over again (this being iteration two), so I will just link this page instead.  Suffice it to say, when that indicator is “below the zero line” on the NYA Index, we are looking at continued volatility and difficult-to-trade, bear-leaning markets.

This graphic below, also cadged from Stocktiming.com (hat tip to them),  in conjunction with the link above, will illustrate where we are in the current cycle.



















As you can see… anytime the zero-based RSI is over that negative line, stocks have had a difficult time of it.

This confirms a lot of what I’ve been seeing in other areas as well, which tells me players are taking chips off the table right now in anticipation of a paltry Fall.

As a result, all I did today was continue to trim.  I actually tried to take some hedges off by letting the declining prices come to me (on the sold calls) but none hit my buy points, so I remain heavily hedged on some of my oldest deepest in the money positions.   I expect that all the value will soon come out of those sold calls, however, and I will likely end up selling even more rather than re-selling more calls at this juncture.

I also bought some more SKF today.  Not a tonne, by any means.  Nothing more than toe-dips for now, as we are due a nice snap-back rally here.   Use these opportunities, people.

My best to you.




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Goodbye to All That



I made good on my threats today, and took everything down to the 30% level on my personal accounts. 

I was up an average of almost 5% across a number of different portfolios and I finally said “enough is enough.”   I am keeping 30% invested, with the equal expectation that we could hit a precipitous downdraft in the precious metal sector at any time, just as we could shoot past $2,000 gold in an eye-blink.  

I care no more, as at this point risk avoidance has become very important to me.  If that means I miss the next $200 in gold on 70% of my portfolio, well so be it.   It’s very possible we could see a break past $50 in silver as well, and again, I’ll have no nonsense from any of you about it.   Really, I mean it.  Just shut up now.

And yes, that means I sold large chunks of AAU, AG, AUY, ANV, EGO, EXK, GDX, GDXJ, GG, MVG, NG, NGD, NXG, PAAS, RGLD, SIL and even beloved SLW.

And I blew out the rest of my NUGT as well.

And no, I am not abandoning the PM’s as a theme now, and won’t abandon them should they continue to skyrocket in flight to many more afternoon delights this late summer.   I am willing to wait for them, however, and to examine “other areas” whilst they frolic about like mad sturgeon on lady’s night at the Aquarium.

One of those “other areas” includes my old friend, Mr. Skiffles — SKF.  Along with his rebrobrate alchoholic brother, FAZ-tard, I believe Mr. Skiffles will be getting some nice exercise this second half of the year.  One of the reasons is the behavior of BAC, and now, most recently, the troubles of GS, and it’s Waspy rival MS.  

Another is the critical structural problems of Europe erupting again like plague boils on the carcass of its major banks.  This is a contagion that may yet again bolt across the Atlantic and may even explain the impolite selling vigor in some of our larger institutions.  Will the Fed be there to save their lying souls once again? 

Too big to fail, you say?   Maybe, but while “fail” might rhyme with “bail,” I wouldn’t be too sure equity holders won’t be left holding an empty bucket this time around.  Be warned, friends, storms approach.

Peace be upon you.


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