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I made good on my threats today, and took everything down to the 30% level on my personal accounts.
I was up an average of almost 5% across a number of different portfolios and I finally said “enough is enough.” I am keeping 30% invested, with the equal expectation that we could hit a precipitous downdraft in the precious metal sector at any time, just as we could shoot past $2,000 gold in an eye-blink.
I care no more, as at this point risk avoidance has become very important to me. If that means I miss the next $200 in gold on 70% of my portfolio, well so be it. It’s very possible we could see a break past $50 in silver as well, and again, I’ll have no nonsense from any of you about it. Really, I mean it. Just shut up now.
And yes, that means I sold large chunks of AAU, AG, AUY, ANV, EGO, EXK, GDX, GDXJ, GG, MVG, NG, NGD, NXG, PAAS, RGLD, SIL and even beloved SLW.
And I blew out the rest of my NUGT as well.
And no, I am not abandoning the PM’s as a theme now, and won’t abandon them should they continue to skyrocket in flight to many more afternoon delights this late summer. I am willing to wait for them, however, and to examine “other areas” whilst they frolic about like mad sturgeon on lady’s night at the Aquarium.
One of those “other areas” includes my old friend, Mr. Skiffles — SKF. Along with his rebrobrate alchoholic brother, FAZ-tard, I believe Mr. Skiffles will be getting some nice exercise this second half of the year. One of the reasons is the behavior of BAC, and now, most recently, the troubles of GS, and it’s Waspy rival MS.
Another is the critical structural problems of Europe erupting again like plague boils on the carcass of its major banks. This is a contagion that may yet again bolt across the Atlantic and may even explain the impolite selling vigor in some of our larger institutions. Will the Fed be there to save their lying souls once again?
Too big to fail, you say? Maybe, but while “fail” might rhyme with “bail,” I wouldn’t be too sure equity holders won’t be left holding an empty bucket this time around. Be warned, friends, storms approach.
Peace be upon you.
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Thanks for letting us know what you’re doing now, and for your comments on Europe etc., Jake. Good informative post here.
Ackkk! Gold over $1910!
I’m jonesing, jonesing already… gotta get me a fix… WHADDAYA MEAN THE NUMESMATIC SHOPPE CLOSES AT 7 PM???
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maybe Rex can help:
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2011/08/20/rex-murphy-global-warming-runs-out-of-gas/
Again, Rex is absolutely right.
great post.
I grudgingly concur bec every time Gold has become this…momentous it has pulled back for at least 6 months. I do loves gold though, a lot. Obviously the trend is still higher in the LT sense, maybe 2000 is the big round number that ends it. Maybe, chavez was a magazine cover indicator. But yeah, at least a pullback soonish, it seems (perhaps to coincide with equity bounce?)
The local leftwing asshat paper ran a political cartoon this morning that incorporated the chemical symbol for gold with the cry of a distressed investor reading the financial news… “AUrrrrrrgh!” They even used the atomic weight from the elemental chart and everything…
When the lefty bozos are noticing it… we’re close.
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indeed.
also watching for possible “silver” top where we set some high here, pullback sharply, break that high, take out that low. The ol’ 1-2 false breakout a roo.
Another thing I havent looked at yet but need to later is gold/silver ratio and other ratio charts.
I’m wondering if platinum is a buy here. One, from price action, breaking out of a seemingly endless consolidation.
In oct 2008 I thought either the world ends and we need coins for grains of rice or this is some type of major low and we get asset inflation, so I figured I won either way if I bought psychical PMs, so I bought 3x:1 platinum to gold when they were at parity near 900. That was a great trade, and plowed the winnings from selling 75% of my platinum at mid 15 and low 17s back into gold and now also silver (1150ish and ~19 resp).
Now we’re back to where we started in 2008. PLT:GLD are at parity, and the world is ending. So is PLT, up 14% from recent lows now the buy after selling overheated gold (up 27% off recent lows)?
I would hold off on every PM for now. They should all pull back.
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“Mr. Skiffles — SKF. Along with his rebrobrate alchoholic brother, FAZ-tard,”
Rebrobrate
rep·ro·bate (rpr-bt)
n.
1. A morally unprincipled person.
2. One who is predestined to damnation.
adj.
1. Morally unprincipled; shameless.
2. Rejected by God and without hope of salvation.
I swear you made up that fucking word. I tip my hat to you good sir. Your lexicon is thicker than elephant labia.
And a hat tip to you for the thickness comparison to elephant labia. I’ll have to use that everywhere now!
Thanks. I had originally penned elephant mucus…..what with their big nose and such, but elephant labia works better.
Also, any time I can send half the homos here to the google machine to figure out what a labia is means a win for me.
LOL. I am happy that I am expanding some of you boys’ vocabulary. Can I make a suggestion?
I buy an annual subscription to National Review for all the young guys who work for me. Aside from consuming the classics, I don’t think there’s a better way to sharpen your writing and vocabulary skills.
Caution — it’s a pretty conservative magazine, but not obstreperous about it — unlike me.
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Annual subscriptions of the National Review for the young guys under you.
I bet you’re the guy who lived down the street from me when I was a kid, who gave out bananas and apples for halloween.
no,tooth brushes.lol
I’m making them better writers. It’s an invaluable gift in my business.
Like my kids, they will thank me later. 😉
It’s not all bad… they also get hard cash.
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I hear “Mother Jones” also does wonders for one’s vocabulary. Will we be giving them equal time?
No, it really doesn’t. It’s a grammatical and stylistic mess.
If you must read left wing garbage, at least Harper’s is well written.
Just do me a favor and stay away from Lewis “The Prevaricator” Lapham’s column.
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BAC looks to be heading to zero. Maybe it will do what it should have in ’08 and implode in a most inglorious manner. Goldman is in danger of egregious perp walks. I don’t like the looks of this market.
On a personal note I used today to lighten up my 401(k). Sadly as an office drone such money is important to any possible future retirement opportunities. Dumpage of equities though.
The doom and gloom is heavy. I don’t like how the social discourse, fiscal chaos and government tyranny is engulfing the daily news stream.
“A 76-year-old man has been stabbed to death while leading Boy Scouts on a hiking trip”
“…there are now almost 46 million people in the United States on food stamps, roughly 15 percent of the population.”
“a mentally ill homeless man died following a violent fight with six police officers…In the video, 37-year-old Kelly Thomas, who suffered from schizophrenia, can be heard crying out for his father over the zapping sound of a stun gun.”
These are scary and uncertain times. Made even worse because the world has no leadership and statists are doing what they do to remain in power and keep control over the populace.
Serfdom has never been more immediate and real.
Government mismanagement of markets and economies are pummeling the lower and middle class. Social unrest will become out of control. Think “flash robbing” on a much larger scale.
“Consumers are continuing to notice an increase on their groceries compared to last year this time, which some experts say is due to the rising cost of fuel and poor weather.”
….and also due to the absolute destruction of the dollar.
The middle to lower classes have seen their jobs sent overseas to the Chinese slaves. These will never come back. What are these people supposed to do for work? If you are over 50 you can basically forget being hired in certain jobs. The aged in this country are simply thrown away. It is heart breaking if you’ve ever taken notice.
The Hole of Jackson will bring little relief. Maybe the trading robots will be happy for a few months while they skim off from the herd’s last morsels of savings. I dunno. Obama is not quite done destroying this country and I’m not sure that the GOP field will be helpful in returning the republic to its finer glories.
It’s going to be bumpy.
The chances of BAC going to zero are zero. Unless they spin off Merrill Lynch. If they do that then the thing will crash and burn as it should. Every stinking rat turd in congress has an account with ML, there’s no way they let it boil down to zero.
Indeed. It will bailed out before that happens. Too big and all that.
$C trading at about $2.5 bucks….$BAC could be a couple of bucks….gonna feel like 0
bac is dead,the decision has been made months ago.parts might be saved, but who cares,dont mean crap. when they get done “inserting” all the toxic shit from all the tbtf’s, then the fat lady will sing……she’s in the green room now, and rehearsing scales. this will be one of our finest operas’. stage manager says, there wont be an intermission on this passion play,it will move so fast,you might miss something.
I have enjoyed being in DGP and AGQ, thanks Hugo.
The paper receipt markets are 100 to 1 versus physical according to CFTC comments but most do not stand for delivery. Amazing that I have to let them know, but this is not wheat or oil in that everyone including individual investors can all take delivery. The less trust in the system (liquidity, solvency, corruption), the more people want an alternative.
Volker knocked down gold prices in the 80’s by raising interest rates to something like 20%, but with rates locked until mid 2013 there will be no opportunity costs related to interest rate risk (why go into short term debt or cash – the interest they are paying you on those intuitively states that they are not worth much). They don’t need your savings, they can just print more – that’s the blind spot of being an ivory tower ivy league academic – ask a former CFO. No risk of inflation signaled by ZIRP suggests no urgency for borrowing and capital investment to lock in low rates, but discount rates should be low for those following the formula of WACC and that should support stocks once the lack of QE and recession is priced in. What is good is bringing some certainty to businesses beyond one year, we need a really long term plan agreed to boost confidence. We need a final decision on ObamaCare from the Supremes and some job stimulus program that has tax incentives tied to US job creation. Interest rates and savings rates are upside down relative to true inflation rates, the system is only being used to save the banks at the expense of everyone else. Zero percent borrowing for P.D.’s and 30% interest rates on credit cards is the tale of two cities: Detroit vs. N.Y.N.Y.
Because of European bank problems, BAC problems, and Venezuela physical is getting harder to secure. They will increase margins as well, but the last one had very little affect, and the higher the margin goes the less they can impact the price with leverage to drive it back down.
Gold is like the sun, and silver like the moon. I like them both. The famous line from the ’81 movie rollover is “gold just went over $2,000″, …”that will be cheap by tonight”. Gold is looking like a giffen good, and silver is a worthy substitute that will have more mass appeal due to price.
I also have cash in USD and hope we are on the US Dollar Reserve for the next 50 years as it is a benefit for our standard of living.
Solid comments.
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I’m wondering if it is going to be SWHC trade time again soon…
I kind of like your SKF idea. Are you still in it and how big is your position? Also, any thoughts on peter Brandt’s SSG idea?
sugar baby.been loading that truck for 2 weeks now………..gotta say it,gotta say it…………….sweeeeeet
I am not familiar w. the thesis?
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1978 french movie Le Sucre.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0078338/
that’s the thesis.
urgh… ticker dyslexia.. thought i read SGG.
move along.. nothing to see here..
well the movie is still great mind you…
JG,
Thoughts on EXK both long and short term?
Long term it will be fine.
Right now, I’ve cut my position down to 30%.
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I won’t speak for the man, but if you care to read his post above (that’s why they are there, i’d posit) i think you’ll figure it out.
cliff notes:
short term, bad
long term, good
Nice timing, Gint… props 😉
I was actually taking Gary’s advice in a way…
“When it hurts the most to sell… THAT is the time.”
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well done, to say the least ….. very savvy move
Your timing is impeccable.
“Even a blind pig, etc. etc…”
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You nailed it like an elephant labia!
Darn. Almost. Let me try again:
If timing is a small, fragile thing, and sensitive; like midget labia, you cleaved it with a heavy club whose mass exceeds that of an enraged mammoth’s coarse-haired proboscis. May you trumpet your snot cannon above the subdued, diminutive lips of time; the glistening fluids of which ebb softly away, until silvery Luna draws them fourth once more unto your virile ministrations.
Eeeewwww.
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I noticed you didn’t mention XG, do you still hold it and if so have you reduced it to 30% as well?
Yes, sold down to 30% as well.
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Senator, your timing was, once again, impeccable – as was your conviction, axing 70% of all of the positions you listed. Now that is not just trimming, that’s full-on pruning. And banking coin. There’s a reason why I, and the rest of the plebs and pikers here, pay attention to what you say and do. It’s an opportunity to learn at the feet of a master in the PM space. Thanks for all that you do here.
A pleasure to read.
Thanks, all. It really was a lot of luck. For all I know, we reverse higher tomorrow and I’m weeks early.
You have to play the percentages, however.
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