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JakeGint

King Dollah Comin’ For YOU!

dollar

I see you!
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Despite the best laid plans of mice and men, not to mention Time Magazine weasels, physics still work and even fiat currencies bounce.   We are experiencing a necessary breather here in the nine year plunge of the dollar, otherwise known as The Potemkin Bull.

Here’s a hint as to where I think we’ll be going in the near term on the dollar proxy [[UUP]] :

uup

 

Before you get all excited about your extra-ursine activity however, just know that this is not likely to last for very long.   Give it a couple of weeks, tops, before Time’s Genius of the Year  presses the one button he’s made available to himself to guide us all to economic Valhalla

That would be the button that attaches to the dollar printing presses.   For those of us who’ve been following the path of Jackson, that will be our signal to start buying miners and royalty plays again, this time in size.   In the meantime, I’ll be over here adding a little more [[SPY]] puttage, maybe some [[TZA]] and a couple of dollops of [[DUG]] for (just) deserts.    If you are in The PPT already, you will see the purchases first, as you have been.  

If you are not, then “a ha’penny will do,” I guess.     Off to listen to the sounds of “fap-fap-fap-fapping” coming from the Dope Slope.   At it’s crescendo, I will be buying gold, glorious gold.

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Droopy Dawg Depositaries Dragging?

droopy

I am so very very happy…
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Despite the great sturm and drang of late day trading, the charts for the [[SPY]] still look relatively benign, and price is not even hitting the 20 day EMA yet.   True there’s been some readily apparent divergences in the MACD and RSI, but nothing to get overly excited about if this is just a consolidation for further action upward.

spydaily

Canaries do cough in the coal mine, however, and one of the yellow hackers is perennial bull-nuisance   [[BKX]] , our Philadelphia Banking Index, which is currently humping over like poor Quasimodo at Esmeralda’s keyhole.   With the 200-day EMA ($43.42) breached today with considerable vigour (sic), I think this index stands a chance of falling through the  more recent support level illustrated below, at about $41.75:

bkx-daily

I believe that if it does breach that level, the $BKX will likely bring the rest of the market down with it for at least a short term hiatus.

For my part, I did nothing trade-wise today save analyse (sic) highly intellectual rap orchestrations with Mssr. Le Fly, whilst eating peanut butter and banana samiches.  

Tomorrow, I may or may not do the same, but I will surely let you know.   Quicker still, if you’re residing inside The PPT, of course.

Best to you.

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All Coming to a Head?

Head
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It’s no secret that I think we’re due a substantial pullback off this 23-week Lorne Green’s Bonanza move we’ve had here, and I’m thinking it will probably come this week, if it’s going to come before the 2010 sell-off my colleague Mssr. le Fly has bruted recently.

One faithful guide I’ve used here many times to plot my course is the trusty Dow Transports [[TRAN]] of Charles Dow’s  Theory fame.    On the following weekly chart, you can see they are approaching an important Fibonacci level — the 61.8% Golden Ratio line, the strongest of the fibonacci levels in my experience:

tran_weekly

Note that we are only one short thrust, a cut-purse’s dirk, as it were, from that magic level, at right around $4,215 on the index.  In fact, if we have another day like we had today on the Trannies, we will get there tomorrow.   This will be key an indicator for me as to whether to cover my hedges, or press them further.

For those of you looking for a solid play for après ski-jump,  you know already I’m a strong proponent of game changing technology.  I think Cree, Inc. [[CREE]] owns it, and will be the leader in LED technology as it advances to light our world on only a fraction of the energy and cost of traditional incandescents.   

All without K-cups.

It doesn’t hurt that CREE’s chart is nothing short of a monster, which indicates people far smarter than me are ready to finally back this innovative company after a long period of gestation.  Lookee here at this weekly trend:

creeweekly1

You will note above that I believe this slightly overstretched beauty should get a pullback into the $47.50-ish range.  It’s a strong buy — with two fists — there, I’d argue.

Best to you all, tomorrow.

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Capitalism: The Human Factor

Present
Ignorance and Want: Forever Present
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Adam Smith is often acknowledged as the father of modern economics, and perhaps as often as the first champion of Free Market Capitalism.   What many don’t realize is that Smith was not an economist (the study did not even exist before his Wealth of Nations was published in 1776), but rather, a moral philosopher

This is important because Smith didn’t argue for freedom of the individual and in favor of the righteousness of mutually beneficial transactions unimpeded by the Sovereign (or, “the State”) because he thought that would be the best thing for business development (they didn’t really have that concept back then, either).   No, Smith proposed his system of equitable exchange between free men as a moral thesis — a necessary  evolution in late-Enlightenment thinking — that would make for a more equitable and civilized society.   Truly, Smith was far more about “The Golden Rule” here, than he was about “the gold.”

I posit that this misunderstanding of capitalism — especially by those who believe in the guiding hand of the Monarch (now, merely “the State“) over the Invisible Hand of the market — continues today.   Moreover, I’d posit further that the misunderstanding is one of basic definitions.   

Monarchists, Feudalists, Fascists, Socialists, and other government-first adherents tend to believe that the key to capitalism is physical capital associated with wealth — cash, land, equipment, etc.    In fact these are mere wasting assets, the by-product of capitalism, rather than its key ingredients.  They are nothing without the spark of human  ideation — the intellectual capital that drives all progress and increased standards of living.

For there is no arguing that innovation drives human progress, and it’s by-product in a free society is wealth.  It is no coincidence that those countries that respect and even seek to attract intellectual capital are among the wealthiest in the world.  

To provide an example, it’s no coincidence that health care has become one of our greatest economic pillars.   We are among the very few nations left that will invest directly in health care innovation, and, as a result, we are providing innovation for most of the world.   That creates an enormous market for U.S. health care entrepreneurs and venture capital investors, because they are in essence, innovating for a global market with very little competition outside our own borders

Sometimes I wish someone could sit down with the Congressional Delegation of  California — with their state’s enormous reputation for cutting edge innovation — and explain this paradigm to them, veeeerrrry slowly.  Perhaps then they would not be so quick to take a hatchet to the golden goose’s valuable neck.

Ah well.

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I wonder also that if our friends who favor a heavier hand of government could finally understand that it is people acting in freedom that make for a vibrant and successful  economy, and therefore, people are our most precious asset, would they continue to be such proponents for Malthusian population control? 

Would they, who purport to stand for the “little people,”  be so non-chalant about layering on increased taxes and regulations on the  idea-laden, but cash-light small business community?  

I am willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.  I am willing to believe it’s all just a matter of fundamental misunderstanding, and they know not what they do.”

Let’s take on the responsibility then.  This holiday season, let’s do something truly for our fellow man.

Let’s pledge together to be the instrument of education  in our communities and our states.   

Only active participation can help turn a tide of creeping government that threatens to separate the country irreparably from its roots in individual freedom.   Let us rather return to those roots, by blowing the horn of innovation, progress, and freedom for all free men and women — and those seeking to be free.

Slante.

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(more…)

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Pre-Christmas Presents

santa_giving_finger

Remember, don’t ask for any bullshit cawfee machines, kids!

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Sawry, I just got a bunch of deal docs dumped on me at the end of the day, so I haven’t the time to defenestrate lefties or argue the merits of very tiny disposable instant cawfees.  

You’ll just have to make due with two interesting ideas that popped up today.   Overall, I still think we’re just about to roll over, but that doesn’t mean you can’t corral some cheese goats in the meantime.

First chevre du fromage is [[TBT]] , which seems to be indicating that — sovereign debt crisis be damned — US Treasuries are not exactly the bargain of the year, ovah heah:

tbt-daily

A little bit overbot in the RSI, but one to watch.   Next stop, the 50% fib at $50.27 or so.

Besides our PM’s,  TBT is one of the best defensive stockso to hold for the coming currency dump.

Next, titanium producer RTI International Metals, Inc. [[RTI]] which I’ve owned off and on in the past, but own none right now.  I think the commodity play will be on in full force later in the year, but I also think steel is moving early:

rtidaily

 

Ciao, bella.

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Boom! Sell Cawfee, Buy Gold*

CAWFEE
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10 Reasons Gold Kicks Cawfee’s Ass

1.  Gold is more stimulative.

2.  Nobody ever had a problem with Coach Gold.

3.  Chicks dig gold more.

4. Gold does not need to be vacuum-packed, ever.

5.  One year at Harvard:  45 maple leaf gold coins vs. 8600 bags of cawfee.

6.  Gold is actually the best part of waking up.

7.  Like cawfee, gold can be found in Africa and South America.  Unlike cawfee, gold can also be found in Canada.

8.  If Blackbeard ever buried a chest full of cawfee, do you think he’d bother with a map?

9.  Gold makes for longer lasting wedding rings

10.  Gold in a teeny tiny little cup is much more surprising and delightful.

But it’s not yet time to buy gold in size.   We’ll likely have some rebound from this oversold condition, but I think we’re in for some additional pain before it will be time to back up the truck once again.    Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] , however, is another story.

gmcrdaily

Pay close attention to accumulation and distribution.  After price and volume I find it the most useful indicator of immediate action.

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*Just don’t buy gold right now, unless it’s just for a trade, then go ahead, knock yourself out.

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