I am so very very happy…
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Despite the great sturm and drang of late day trading, the charts for the [[SPY]] still look relatively benign, and price is not even hitting the 20 day EMA yet. True there’s been some readily apparent divergences in the MACD and RSI, but nothing to get overly excited about if this is just a consolidation for further action upward.
Canaries do cough in the coal mine, however, and one of the yellow hackers is perennial bull-nuisance [[BKX]] , our Philadelphia Banking Index, which is currently humping over like poor Quasimodo at Esmeralda’s keyhole. With the 200-day EMA ($43.42) breached today with considerable vigour (sic), I think this index stands a chance of falling through the more recent support level illustrated below, at about $41.75:
I believe that if it does breach that level, the $BKX will likely bring the rest of the market down with it for at least a short term hiatus.
For my part, I did nothing trade-wise today save analyse (sic) highly intellectual rap orchestrations with Mssr. Le Fly, whilst eating peanut butter and banana samiches.
Tomorrow, I may or may not do the same, but I will surely let you know. Quicker still, if you’re residing inside The PPT, of course.
Best to you.
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I don’t believe your charts. They lie.
I also have my Magic 8-ball in reserve, if you’d rather consult that…
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The dollar’s stronger and the market has held, when the dollar gets back to dropping this market will soar. Currently I’m a medium term bear, but this market is full of shit, I see the writing on the wall and think this bitch is going up.
Agreud on all counts.
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From Bill Cara:
http://caracommunity.com/content/blog-december-15-2009-see-post-close-report
[7:17am ET] When faced with today’s headlines about banks in crisis in Greece and Austria, among other countries, what comes to mind is the story of the Dutch boy who plugs a dike with his finger.
Meanwhile the safe-haven trade to sell ‘risky’ foreign stocks for U.S. greenbacks is going to help the Fed’s Bernanke report today that with a stronger $USD he can now afford to keep the lid on interest rates in order to save the fractured U.S. economy and of course the local banks.
It is also putting the screws to gold and silver prices.
So, everything in balance; you add something to here, and you take something from there. The public will soon learn that the cost of saving America is a temporary stumble in equity prices, signaled by the Goldminers leaving the dance floor.
This equity market pullback on the rise of the $USD should have happened in July, but the American banks needed time to help one another crank prices higher to cause less share dilution when they did the inevitable funding of their TARP repayments. Now that the last of Humungous Bank & Broker (HB&B), Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC), have lined up their ducks, let the Dollar rally.
HB&B, that’s eggsellent.
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Jake,
It’s strange, but this current market feels eerily similar to the end of 2007 (just before the major decline hit) when all the writing was on the wall with subprime/housing, yet the market was still flirting with new highs. Right now, the indices are trading at recent highs despite the warning signs in sovereign debt. I’m expecting some real fireworks once Santa leaves town…am I off base here?
Also, I am looking at going short U.S. Muni bond ETFs (munis looking prime for some blowups in 2010) as well as shorting some weak economies in Euroland (Spain, Italy, Austria ETFs). Any insight you can offer?
I’m not sophisticated enough to short muni-bonds with any degree of confidence, but I do like TBT here.
Veddy much.
I like the short Euro play as well, as I think they are going to slip into the drink no matter what happens to us, and the Euro’s a crappy bet right now.
As for when the market dips, I’m still thinking before Christmas, but you are with Fly on the post-Santa thing and you may be correuct.
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The peanut butter and banana sandwich; a favorite past time of my late grandfather, on my mother’s side. I haven’t had one in years.
I’m really bored right now Jake, I’m not doing anything but coasting along hedged and, as of late, taking NOV straight to the chest. This month can’t pass by quickly enough.
Any good plans for Christmas?
Just spending it in the warmth of the bosom of my family and all that.
I’m somewhat tapping my foot as well. I’m still slightly long here, so the up days are better than the down, but I’d like this thing to resolve itself one way or another before all my hedge options turn to dross.
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Gold/Silver trying to put in a bottom here?
More likely consolidating before a little more pain. Good time to take some more off the table, which I may do with HL and CDE here.
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BKX breaking down as I type as well.
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Looks like a nice rounded bottom, should be good for at least a mini-rally.
Extremely mini. 😉
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Quit trying to piss in my coffee cup.
I have my agents going through your recycling bin as we speak.
Do not make any sudden moves, and your invoice will be bearable.
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i just picked up a copy of “Winter’s Tale” as a christmas gift to my brother, who’s moving to NYC this summer.
looking forward to reading it before giving it to him–i’ll let you know what i think.
LOL — you are going to read his book before you give it to him, or did you get another one?
It’s well worth your while. Really brings the “magic” back into NYC… scrapes away some of the cynicism.
Helprin (the author) was IDF at one point, btw. Real Renaissance man.
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i actually got the audiobook version for myself. just spent 1500 miles driving through texas
Hey Jake, can you believe this shit? Speaking of ‘resets’ being in the cards, that looks like quite the opportunity for a ‘straight flush’.
I have some trouble believing it. That guy has been crying wolf for a while. That said, I have more miners and physical than SLV, and no futes at all
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Good answer.
I won’t touch the etf’s; well, I suppose in all honesty I should say that I might caress them once in awhile, but rarely for more than a day or two. Its all my ‘risk libido’ will support… Hold? Never.
Paper promises, in general, make me nervous.