Mon Bon Ami, Monsieur Le Fly

Dieu bénissent le Fly
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Let me just say that I’m grateful this day for my good friend, Monsieur Le Fly.  

Before tonight’s market discussion, however, let me tell you a brief story, not altogether “out of school.”    This summer, my wife and I dined with Monsieur et Madame Le Fly. 

By dint of fast L.I.R.R train out of Atlantic Beach, we arrived at le restaurant (downtown NYC) first, and were able to have a quick cocktail while we awaited our dinner companions.   Since the restaurant was bayed and glass fronted, and our maitre d’ was kind enough to seat us in front of said bay glass front, I was able to steal a first glance at madame and monsieur even before he first laid eyes upon me.

Therefore I was immediately able to take the measure of his character, and let me tell you why.   No, it was not the solicitous manner in which he comported himself with madame (although that was certainly nice).   Nor was it his clean appearance, or even his upright posture, however positive those fixtures might be.

No, it goes back to something my father taught me as a wee lad, no more than 13 and approaching the narrowing straits of manhood. 

“Jake,” he said, putting his arm around my shoulder in an almost conspiratorial fashion,

 “Always be wary of a man who is better looking than his wife, as  it’s a sign of a weak character.”

Let it be said that it’s further credit to Madame Le Fly that Monsieur is by no means an ugly man.  It is merely that she is le soleil to his la lune — the gender nominatives notwithstanding.

Second hint — La Lune insisted on picking up the tab.   So it goes with my friend, Monsieur Le Fly.

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But let me not soften tonight’s “a la recherche de temps perdu,” etc., with too much overt sentimentality.   Tonight I laud my bon ami for keeping the rubes, stupes and tin pot bangers continuing to chew the gristle of regret and bitter grapes with regard to the most obvious bull market of the millenium.

Heck, maybe even the only bull market of the millenium.  

Please credit him with Svengali-like powers.   Only mon bon ami could so easily have the five figure account guys gamboling and capering with glee today about the ridiculousness of owning gold with these data readily available:

Know that he is doing the Lord’s work for you and your family by casting doubt on the gold-sound money thesis.   This spells “O-P-P-O-R-T-U-N-I-T-Y” for those of you who may have yet to participate.   Thank m’Lord le Fly and thank those who readily take his word with nary a thought toward logical analysis, or even limpid thought.

For they shall be the bearers of your wealth, well into the next decade.   God bless.

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There should be something of a bounce tomorrow, as we fast approach my mentioned $440 level on the $HUI.  We are also quite oversold on gold in the near term.    That said, I don’t think this pullback is over, and may only cover some shorted calls into tomorrow’s sell off.   Be nimble, be quick, etc.

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The Once and Future Gold Standard?
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Some quick notes on direction…

Despite the imprecations of some, this is wholly and incontrovertibly a dollar-dependent market.   Wither the dollar, there goeth the market.   Your bombastic arguments may be amusing, but the Santa Gods only chuckle when you laud “progress” and “economic viability” like some kind of Parallel Universe Bizarro Karl Denninger.

(Slap! Slap! Slap! Slappity-Slap!)  Get serious, at once!  

 This market is riding a giant tsunami of Bernanke dinero and that’s why it’s been going up like a drunk clown in a circus dirigible.   But it looks like Benny’s press machines are getting a rest, ovah heah.   Or maybe it’s just that the rest of the world’s craptastic fiat currencies need a chance to catch up.   In any case, the dollar is back above it’s 50-day EMA:

I think it’s very likely we could see the dollar rebound all the way to its 200-day moving average (between $79-$80) before it turns once again like a wounded albatross and heads for the longer term lows in the $71 range.

As for our friend Baby [[HUI]] , I mentioned the other day that on Wednesday last week it came within $3 of it’s old highs from March of 2008 ($519.68).   That $516.16 high marked the top, however, and we’ve quickly sold down since then to close today at $461.19 — a $55 dollar move in 5 days of trading.   

If the stock market is sensitive to the dollar, then the gold miner market is even more so.   That’s why I think that Baby $HUI has got some more work to do here.   Here are my targets: 

Do I think the 61.8% fib  (@ $378) is also in play?   You bet your sweet bippy, Grandmaw.  Verily, I think the move down here is going to be somewhat soul-crushing, and I think the miners may feel the worst of it.   I bot some more SPY puts ($110’s again) and now my stash stands at 250 contracts, with a number more of sold calls in United Parcel Service, Inc. [[UPS]] . Monsanto Company [[MON]] and Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] .

But the bull is not over, make no mistake.  So bide your time wisely, here, and keep your wallet hand loose and well manicured as you get ready for the next swing. 

That is all, save for my final admonition about the foolishness of your not yet becoming a member of the Trading Hive Mind in The PPT.   What gives?  Don’t you like money?

Spock out.

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          Nothing is random, nor will anything every be, whether a long string of perfectly blue days that begin and end in golden dimness, the most seemingly chaotic political acts, the rise of a great city, the crystalline structure of a gem that has never seen the light, the distribution of fortune, what time the milkman gets up, the position of the electron, or the occurrence of one astonishingly frigid winter after another...

        And yet there is a wonderful anarchy, in that the milkman chooses when to arise, the rat picks the tunnel into which he will dive when the subway comes rushing down the track from Borough Hall, and the snowflake will fall as it will.  How can this be? If nothing is random, and everything is predetermined, how can there be free will?

The answer to that is simple. Nothing is predetermined; it is determined, or was determined, or will be determined.  No matter, it all happened at once, in less than an instant, and time was invented because we cannot comprehend in one glance the enormous and detailed canvas that we have been given– so we track it, in linear fashion, piece by piece.

Time, however, can easily be overcome; not by chasing the light, but by standing back far enough to see it all at once.  The universe is still and complete.  Everything that ever was, is; everything that ever will be, is — and so one, in all possible combinations.   Though in perceiving it we imagine that it is in motion, it is quite finished and quite astonishingly beautiful.

In the end, or, rather, as things really are, any event, no matter how small is intimately and sensibly tied to all the others.  All rivers run full to the sea; those who are apart are brought together; the lost ones are redeemed; the dead come back to life; the perfectly blue days that have begun and ended in golden dimness continue, immobile and accessible; and when all is perceived in such a way as to obviate time; justice becomes apparent not as something that will be, but as something that is.

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The above passage is excerpted from the “Nothing is Random” chapter of Winter’s Tale (Harcourt Books, copywrite 1983 by Mark Helprin, pp. 401-402), without specific permission, though I’m hoping my undying respect for his work, and our mutual respect for the works of Flannery O’Connor will earn me a one-time pass, and he will not subsequently IDF my ass. 

The above mentioned work was recommended to be by my freshman year English professor, Benjamin DeMott, via a glowing review written in the  New York Times Book Review long before I ever sat in DeMott’s class.   Interestingly, I am only reading the book now, long after I ceased sitting in Professor DeMott’s class.   How’s that for time traveling?

For the record, I recommend everything Mark Helprin ever wrote and ever will write, down to his laundry list.  

Salud.

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                                                                             Oy! My freakin’ head!

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This is no game for Windmill-Tilters, my friends.   The Market (with a capital “M”) does not care much for your chest pounding or your Tarzan yodeling.  You might get Jane this weekend, but you will lose your long sleeve of bananas and your thatch hut in the prospect. 

I’ve mentioned already that I took time today to sell calls against my large Monsanto Company [[MON]] position.  I sold 30  January $85 calls for $3.20 a piece.  That marks the last of my hedging of my large holdings.   That’s called “battening down the hatches,” for you Captains Courageous’s at home.

I also bot another 50 [[SPY]] January 110 puts @ $2.79.    Listen up, Dragon Chasers.  I’ve made a lot of dough since March, and I’ll be diggedy-dogged if I’m going to let it get snatched away in a clandestine Grinch Raid into Whoville.     Retail’s getting tired, and December is about retail.   As goes Saks Incorporated [[SKS]] so goes yonder Christmas rally.

But do as you will.   Keep stretching that win streak out with large Roulette bets on Red #27.   Keep laughing at that strengthening dollar and pay no attention to that Bernanke Shoppe-Vac sucking away in the corner.  

Keep saying: Liquidity has NOTHING to do with this rally. 

Keep chanting:  This is a fundamentally driven market. 

Keep praying:  Let us break the 1,122 ceiling, much like the little blue puffer-belly that could. 

May these intercessions to the Turkey Gods bring you safety.  I shall not rely upon them.

Know this — [[DZZ]] is your reverse canary in a coal mine.   It strengthens and becomes a great black vulture, deep in the carbon dust, and soon it will unfurl it’s noisome wings… and eat your liver out.

With that, have a very nice weekend, do!

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Swisher Sweets are Smoo-o-o-o-ooth.
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I’d walk a mile… for a Camel… (and to buy that last piece of that January [[SPY]] put position– 50 more @ $2.89-2.92.)

Bryl-Creem, a little dab’ll do ya…. (just like a concentrated position in sold calls and targetted puts will “smooth out” the rough spots in a downdraft).

Winston Tastes Good, like a cigarette should… (so do 20 more [[GDX]] March 50 calls sold at $8.00 a pop.)

Rice-a-Roni, the San Francisco Treat…  (not unlike [[PTM]] , which has stayed strong — and unsold– while it’s brother PM’s have sweated.  That may change tomorrow, as I may take a third off, despite my lack of a full position as of yet.)

N-E-S-T-L-E-S, Nestles make the very best… (chocolate, maybe but not market hedges.  I expect we’ll have a bit of a global pullback, so even the traditonal consumer product hedges may be of little use.   Note that Brazil took a dive today from [[EWZ]] ‘s tops over $80.   A little [[EEV]] may be a choice smoothner her for a week or so.)

The best part of waking up, is Folger’s in your cup… (but maybe not Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. [[GMCR]] if it breaks through this near term support at $60, right here.  Next very strong support is $55, which I would consider “back up the truck territory,” on a bounce.)

Best of all, it’s a Cadillac… (but not if you’re a GM shareholder, Ford Motor Company [[F]] is actually looking good here on a pullback to $8.50.  I’m sure Mr. Cane Thaler is well pleased)….

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Feel free to add some favourite (sic) advertising slogan-themed picks of your own.   I’m off to dinner at a fantastic local restaurant.  Ciao.

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Gurgle! Gurgle! Gurgle!
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Yea, and ye shall become as a Bear, and ye shall sup of the micturations of a turtle, in God’s syte and mercy. (Pantheons, Chapter 6, Verse 9)

And thou shalt impress upon yon Folio of Collycted Sycurities the [[SPY]] Seller’s Putt, in the amount of another Fyfty (50) certificates at yon pryce of $2.67, and they shall Stryketh at $110 dollyrs upon expiration in Janyary of 2010, the year of our Lord, in His infinite mercy. 

Your total therein and hereafter shall be One Hundreds and Fyfty  (150) Certificates of aforesaid Putts unto tomorrow’s dawn, whereupon ye shall stydy with great vigour the possible addition of surplus Certificates of Putt to be pyrchased.

Moreso, ye shall sell into the wynds of Chaynge and Hope another Two Thysand (2,000) shares of God’s own Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] , at a pryce of $17.21 by the lyte of St. Stephen’s Moon, though this cause ye great weeping and lamentation unto the Land.

Lastly, ye shall commit to the Church another shreeving of the Blessed Eldorado Gold Corporation (USA) [[EGO]] at a pryce of Fourteen pounds and twenty-seven pence.    Thine amount shall be an addytional Two Thysand certificates of common purchase.

Forswearing all meats and liquyrs unto the Eve of Christ’s Mass, ye shall pray unto the Lord for additional gydance and keeping always a gamely eye upon the Devil’s [[UUP]] and it’s mynions in the Federal Reserve Cathedral.

Keepest thou counsel close, and heare not the buzzing of Fool’s Inquisitions.   Stay thy course, and remain Upright in His syte.

May the Good Lord Bless ye and keep ye all safe unto Christ’s Mass.

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