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The Futures markets in both stocks and commodities is telling us we’re in store for a candy-coated day tomorrow in the markets, all Yom Kippur expiations aside. Many a times I’ve heard “Sell on The (Jewish) New Year and buy back on Yom Kippur” as tradition dictated that many of our Tribal brethren would be out of the market for that week.
I think that may be a bit of an old fashioned play (not many of my Hebraic trader pals took off for the entire week of “the Holidays” and Yom Kippur fell on Saturday this year anyway), but it’s still useful as a historical marker and perhaps an “excuse” for people to come out guns a blazing on that first day after All Sins Have Been Elided.
What better time to start stacking venalities up again for next year, nu?
Coincidentally or not, the current bullish outlook for the market synchs with some longer term market work I was updating this weekend. For instance, this following SPX chart looks at the Fibonacci levels of the last four years, beginning with the October highs of 2007 as “the high Fib” and the March lows of 2009 as “the low Fib.”
Note how we launched all the way back to the 61.8% retrace in April ’10, before selling off hard to the 38.2% fib line in July of that same year? Then we had one more run to 61.8% before retracing briefly once more and finally breaking the bonds of the golden ratio (again, 61.8%) in November of ’10.
Note however, that we never bounced all the way back to the October ’07 highs? That’s because we’re in a bear market cycle, my skepticons, and the bad news is we ain’t done yet.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t still have fun times, even if they grow increasingly scantier, right? So let’s look at where this current selloff has based since this summer shall we? Well, I’ll be kippered (no Hebrew) if it isn’t the 50% fib line providing support!
And I think that given the current position of the weekly stochastics (i.e., “oversold”), we will likely get a nice “Euroliquidity” blast here, quite possibly taking us all the back to that 61.8% golden ratio one last time at $1227 on the above chart.
As a result, I plan to continue with my large QLD position and perhaps even “enhance” it with a little TNA, here. I will skinny my SKFlles to a mere nominal position as I still do not trust the banks, but will also eschew all other negative-minded ETF’s for now. I will likely also continue adding back to my silver and gold miner hordes, mostly through GDX, GDXJ and SIL, with opportunistic forays into SLW, EXK, AG and RGLD.
I reserve the right to change this direction on the turn of a dime, however, if things do not play out as Signor Fibonacci has directed.
In addition, later this week, I will attenuate this chart so you can see some more specific targets for the upcoming “deluge.” And yes, folks, it’s still coming. And time is growing short.
My best to you all.
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Jake, The 50% fibo level (which is actually not a true fibonicci number, but we still love it) it the Second strongest support there is, give it some time to bounce against it before it takes it out clean. I don’t see it holding it at all.
Can’t seem to edit, It should be is.
Thx Jake.
My chart art descending triangle shows a tangle at ~1180 (i.e. initial ceiling pressure).
Also, if you head up to the Lake George area (Canadian Thanksgiving, etc.???), Massie’s is my recommendation:
Massie’s Restaurant
(518) 792-3383
Glens Falls
69 Main St
S Glens Falls, NY 12803
Esp. the Italian bread. OMGoodness.
I have friends w. a place up there, so I’ll ask them what they think.
You can get a lot of food Italian bread in Brooklyn. I used to have a “special place” in Carroll Gardens — the NY Italian village that time forgot — when I lived in Park Slope back in the early nineties.
I will never forget that ambrosia. I was just out of school and extremely laden with rent and school debts, so some nights it was just a loaf of that bread and a bottle of Glen Ellen cabernet sauvignon or merlot blend.
Like one of the Four Yorkshiremen famously said “We were poor, but we were ‘appy!”
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Any chance the Giants could get Senor Luck?
Nice Fib work.
From your mouth to God’s ears, but no.
Those fuggers are too wrapped up in their Own, Personal, Manning (no Depeche Mode).
They haven’t admitted that mistake for seven years now, even as Rivers and Roethlisberger make him look like a second stringer…
Can you imagine if we had traded down to get Roethlisberger?
We’d have had AT LEAST one more #1 pick, instead of having given up all those wasted picks for the ‘Tard.
We’d have more Lombardi Trophies than the Crackboys at this point….
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Here’s hoping your chart work becomes reality despite my tiny foray into hedging my PM miner horde and blue chip yielders with TZA.
I went to the Gibson Guitars rally and was a bit annoyed. Too much politics. Numerous “vendors” for the Republican Party and other right leaning groups. I simply wanted to help stand against tyranny. Much like the first couple Tea Parties where people came together for limited government. Now these rallies are co-opted by Republicans, it seems.
I spent the weekend observing the Occupy Wall Street Marxists, Communists and Socialists. It’s fascinating how embraced they have become by the media.
The local newspaper reported on the 35 people who occupied downtown Nashville. One of the more interesting was Cory Amons who is 22 and an artist. Dude says he owes 11K for going to a local community college. Interesting that tuition there is 2K a semester. Doing the math yet?
Shockingly, I mean shockingly, he aspires to be a college prof. But check out his beef:
“The American dream is a lie,” he said. “We tell all the kids that they can be anything when they grow up, but who pays for it?”
That, my friends, is the Socialist’s dream. Who is going to pay for my life?
Banks are destroying this country. If OWS was simply about divorcing big government from big banks then I could support the movement. There is a lot in common there with the Tea Party.
But it’s about the entitlement mentality. The sin of envy. The protesters only care about taking down the capitalist system, ironically while they tweet about it on their damn iPhone. They want others to work hard so they can study fine arts.
The best thing these people can do is learn to blame themselves for their own misery. But that’s not how it works anymore.
This Cartoon says it all…
I know these people well, the Trustafarians.
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Do you still like XG?
Yessir.
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Senator, are you still in AGQ? Looks quite good to me here.
I am not.
Concentrating on miners… when I can concentrate.
Came out of a third of my QLD today.
Hit buy stop.
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I like AUY and GOLD and EXK here – AUY & GOLD are strong ass gold stocks.
AUY especially… after it broke that consolidation, it portended good things.
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