iBankCoin
Home / Tag Archives: QLD

Tag Archives: QLD

Quoth the Dollar, “Nevermore”

raven

_____________________

I’m going to be out an about quite a bit this coming week and not even back in the office until Wednesday.  I’m sorry, I can’t help it if much of the Free World is determined to secure my services in the the final months of 2011 (it’s beginning to give me the willies, actually), but there it is.  People are agitated.  I– to put it clinically–  am an Expediter.  I specialize in expediting Agitations.

And there it is.

Luckily for you, the tenor of my argument hasn’t changed much, despite the rollicking good time the market gave us for OpEx.   Isn’t it odd how during bearish-leaning periods, we get bullish OpEx days, and then the exact opposite during bullish leaning periods?  Maybe I’m being overly anecdotal, like Jay Nordlinger on especially strong tea.    This is the feeling I’m getting in my gut, however, and its a feeling that shouldn’t be ignored.

Why?  Because I got the same feeling around this time in 2007, just before the SHTF… or to be more concise, just before the SHTF in slow motion for about a year, crescendoing at year end of 2008.

I’m getting that itchy feeling again.  And here’s the deal, the dollar could be, or could not be confirming that feeling.  How’s that for precision, eh?   Well when you look at my daily dollar chart, you’ll understand the provenance of my thinking:

See how oversold we are on the dollar at this point?  We really should bounce at that $76 line, maybe after a day or two.   It makes all the sense in the world.   But then there’s the fact that we’ve busted through the 200-day EMA, and in an almost “broken parabola” fashion.  It wouldn’t shock me to see us test the lows given the sharpness of that decline.

It doesn’t make much sense to me… the EURO should be crashing, not the dollar.  But who knows what’s really happening.  For all we know Bernanke is running the presses to wallpaper Angela Merkel’s boudoir even as Europe talks about QE3’ing their own combined fiat experiment.   Much is misdirection in the global race to devalue one’s currency, and I wouldn’t trust one of these spotted badgers as far as I could smell them.

So let’s not play the “speculation” game, but rather the “observation” one.  Let’s see if we get that expected bounce off $76 and let’s see if it lasts.   If it looks like the dollar will rise again, I will likely get out of what little I’ve left on the PM side, except for some very thin core positions, and I might even dabble in the opposite of QLD, our old friend QID, and of course, Mr. Skiffles.

But for now, the dollar still plummets, so let’s be nimble and continue to gather that grain for the winter.  Soon it will be time to sell grain, however, as there will be many hungry locusts knocking at the door.

Best to you all, I will try to check in on you as best I can.

__________________

Comments »

Frankie Has A Message (Updated)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WZ33w3B8Hw&feature=related 450 300]

_____________________________

I hope you took Frankie’s advice last night.  When I went to bed last evening (I had an exhausting day), there were enough people wandering the iBankCoin desert wearing hairshirts and declaring the coming of Armegeddon that I thought I’d wandered into a particularly ascetic strain of the Stinkify Wall Street protest movement. 

But I put my faith in the machinations of the Great Machine — The PPT, more than I do the easily beclouded emotions of my fellow piker traders.  You see the Great Machine runs on blood of cold nanobytes and young trader stem cells.  It cares not for your fears and your worries any more than it feels like patting you on the back in your more elated or expansive periods. 

It feels nothing but the data.  And what’s curious about yesterday’s readings was not that we came off over “overbought” levels, but that The PPT “leveled off” at a certain point yesterday, and held fast over a period of increasing trader nervousness here and across the internets.   It certainly gained my attention.  Were you watching?

And that fastness in the mind of the Machine was telling us something.  Just as Timmah and his group of Eterno-Bears were rubbing their fat little paws together in anticipation of a plump pic-a-nic basket, the titanium hand of The PPT was wheeling back to strike a sharp blow to their tender snouts.  

Not so fast, little Bears… did you think it was really going to be this easy?

And truthfully, if we look at our long term signals, there’s not a lot indicating much of a correction in store.   For example, you think the Big Boys maybe had an idea about what GOOG was going to do?   Have a look at the $NDX weekly for a clue… It’s launched this week off both up-turning primary EMA’s, the 13 and the 34 week exponential moving averages.  It’s also got a lot of room to go on teh RSI and slow stochastics before it’s overbought. 

When the techs are that lively, it’s often a sign that the bull is not done goring his fat brother bear.   Perhaps this weekend I will extrapolate, if you so desire.

In the meantime, I still hold one last third of my QLD position, which I may have been too hasty to sell (but I had a plan to sell at $86, and one must stick to one’s plan, no?).  I also still hold a  small postition in SKF, which I will hold to as a hedge, through the rest of this roller coaster ride.

I also kept all my gold and silver positions, as they showed similar resiliance — that stickiness — that The PPT showed yesterday.   Also PPT related, the silver ETF went “oversold” ridiculously early yesterday.  That often portends a shallowness in the market that will soon be reversed.

Pay attention to sentiment, folks, but above all consult The Machine in these bear-colored times.   It will guide your hand and let you sleep at night.

Best to you all.

_____________________

Comments »

WSJ/NBC Poll Puts Herminator In Lead

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rI6-JzxV-_M&NR=1 450 300]

Plantation Boss Liberals’ Response Seems Less Than Pleased

_________________________

According to a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released tonight, Herman Cain now leads the GOP field with a 27% share of the vote, with Governor Mitt Romney pulling second at 23% , and helmet headed Rick Perry falling from 38% last month in the same poll to 16%  in this latest effort.

I would say that Perry turkey is cooked, and its time to move on to the only man with a computer science degree and an MBA in the field.   A man with a plan (no matter how flawed) to limit the claims of the federal government on the capitalist incentive system that made this country great.  A man who has worked his whole life — in every trade from digging ditches to running multimillion dollar revenue companies.

And maybe most important, Herman Cain is comfortable in his own skin — without having to repair to it as his designated aegis or truncheon.   What a refreshing concept!  Good luck Hermanator!

___________________________________

And please, just stop with the Mitt Romney stuff already.  He’s the establishment candidate in the best traditions of other past fatted calf candidates, like Bob Dole and John McCain.  While I have great respect for Mitt’s operational background and vast business success, I cannot vote (in the primaries at least) for a guy who continues to back his moves in creating Romneycare, along with all the baggage attendant in that decision.

The voting public hungers for a conservative once again.   Herman Cain is thus far the only conservative candidate with the personality, wits and contacts to win the long race to the White House.

________________________________________________

I did get rid of the bulk of my QLD today, as reported in The PPT, but did little else.  I had a rather mammoth  order in all day for rare metal play QRM, but to no avail.  Luckily I already own a small horde of the name, but I was looking to add on a pullback today, to no avail.  I believe it ended up over 14% for the day.  I will continue my intense observations.

I continue to stalk select names in the rare earth (AVL)  and precious metal field (SLW, AG, EXK, RGLD, ANV),  even as this rally gets long in the tooth.  In the meantime I am also selling down some winners.  Not just QLD, but ARO and some other names that have gathered some moss.

Best to you all and to this blessed and still great country.  May she choose wisely.

_______________________

 

 

Comments »

Long Term View Short Term “Pop!”

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BD5nG2jEVgc&feature=related 450 300]

________________________________

The Futures markets in both stocks and commodities is telling us we’re in store for a candy-coated day tomorrow in the markets, all Yom Kippur expiations aside.   Many a times I’ve heard “Sell on The (Jewish) New Year and buy back on Yom Kippur” as tradition dictated that many of our Tribal brethren would be out of the market for that week.

I think that may be a bit of an old fashioned play (not many of my Hebraic trader pals took off for the entire week of “the Holidays” and Yom Kippur fell on Saturday this year anyway), but it’s still useful as a historical marker and perhaps an “excuse” for people to come out guns a blazing on that first day after All Sins Have Been Elided.

What better time to start stacking venalities up again for next year, nu?

Coincidentally or not, the current bullish outlook for the market synchs with some longer term market work I was updating this weekend.  For instance, this following SPX chart looks at the Fibonacci levels of the last four years, beginning with the October highs of 2007 as “the high Fib” and the March lows of 2009 as “the low Fib.”

Note how we launched all the way back to the 61.8% retrace in April ’10,  before selling off hard to the 38.2% fib line in July of that same year?  Then we had one more run to 61.8% before retracing briefly once more and finally breaking the bonds of the golden ratio (again, 61.8%) in November of ’10.

Note however, that we never bounced all the way back to the October ’07 highs?  That’s because we’re in a bear market cycle, my skepticons, and the bad news is we ain’t done yet.

But that doesn’t mean we can’t still have fun times, even if they grow increasingly scantier, right?  So let’s look at where this current selloff has based since this summer shall we?  Well, I’ll be kippered (no Hebrew) if it isn’t the 50% fib line providing support!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And I think that given the current position of the weekly stochastics (i.e., “oversold”), we will likely get a nice “Euroliquidity” blast here, quite possibly taking us all the back to that 61.8% golden ratio one last time at $1227 on the above chart.

As a result, I plan to continue with my large QLD position and perhaps even “enhance” it with a little TNA, here.  I will skinny my SKFlles to a mere nominal position as I still do not trust the banks, but will also eschew all other negative-minded ETF’s for now.  I will likely also continue adding back to my silver and gold miner hordes, mostly through GDX, GDXJ and SIL, with opportunistic forays into SLW, EXK, AG and RGLD.

I reserve the right to change this direction on the turn of a dime, however, if things do not play out as Signor Fibonacci has directed.

In addition, later this week, I will attenuate this chart so you can see some more specific targets for the upcoming “deluge.”  And yes, folks, it’s still coming.  And time is growing short.

My best to you all.

________________________________________

 

 

Comments »

I’m Very Disappointed

Arod

Cocktail Party Acts of Levitation Aside, You Suck

__________________________

… So this won’t be long.

My damn Junkees left 423 guys on base tonight, mostly because they just didn’t feel like running them very hard.  They weren’t very stellar in the field, either, despite being at home.

Oh yeah, and I really, really dislike A-Roid.

I don’t care how damn good he is in the regular season, the guy is a choker.  Plain and simple.  You gotta perform on the big stage, Gayroid, or you’re nothing to me.  Your 600 home runs mean so much cow shit.  Go screw.

You suck.

_______________________

There, that is that.   As for today, I’m disappointed about that too.

You see I tried to get cute.  I went and bot 10k shares of EXK and 8k shares of AG at middle of the day prices.   Then I doubled my order at a substantial discount to my market order.   I did the same for AVL.   I got zero AVL as a result and not filled on my second half of the other two.  I have a feeling that will cost me in the morning.

Meanwhile, I kept my QLD and the GDX and GDXJ that I bought yesterday.

That is all.   I leave you now, grumbling into the night.

Go (NY Football) Giants.

________________

Addenda:  I’m pretty damn disappointed in this guy too (hat tip to DGM) :

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfMjbS0oWrE 450 300]

(If you squint, he looks like Arod)

______________________

 

 

Comments »

Celebrate

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1R-jKKp3NA 450 300]

______________________________

Celebrate a great life, never mourn it.

A life valued, oddly perhaps at first, but valued.

A child welcomed, an adventure claimed, a pathway blazed.

All because a young mother made a choice.  A great one, that– it turns out– has benefited all humanity.

Almost ironic how a man like this can talk about “connecting the dots,” and “destiny” and “karma.”

A boy adopted.

Like Larry Ellison, John Lennon, Charles Dickens, Nelson Mandela… and many others...

56 years of precious, valuable and shared life.

Celebrate.

R.I.P. — and thanks, Steve Jobs.

_________________________________

UPDATE:  I bot QLD (large), early yesterday and GDX and GDXJ (medium) right before the close last night.

_______________________

 

 

Comments »