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Busy, Busy, Busy. Yeah, you got nothing today, but I threw some calls down in The PPT, because theys mah peoples, and theys payin’ the bills. So sorry.
I bot some more Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] calls — 40 more June $11’s at $4.30. That brings my tote up to 160 in that class. Yeah, there might be some more pain in this name, and in my other precious plays, but you know what?
I’m not going to get overly concerned.
I’m shrugging off this “Volker scare.”
I say here for you — it’s bullshit. Rhetoric. Albumen.
I knew we’d have some sell-off and the PM’s were way ahead of the rest of the market in this cycle decline, which means that they will likely be done before the rest is too.
I’ve been adding tons here on Friday and today, and as I mentioned I was actually up at Friday’s close. Not so much today, but that’s only because my hedges “gave back” some of Friday’s wins. Those are the kind of losses I can accept. I consider that the equivalent of paying off Sal & Tony for “protection.” If we go bull green from here, I’ll be happier than Harpo at the Thai Masseuse convention, and I’ll sell those hedges at a loss, if necessary.
But now, they stay, even as a I load up on 4k more [[EXK]] at $3.45. 2k more IAMGOLD Corporation (USA) [[IAG]] at an unfortunate $14.31 (again, I’m not worried), and 400 more Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] at $44.52.
Between today and Friday, I’ve been loading up on PM’s and banks. I didn’t add any banks today, but I think I may take a third swipe at Pacific Capital Bancorp [[PCBC]] and BB&T Corporation BB&T Corporation [[BBT]] . One other playah that I bot last week is Fifth Third Bancorp [[FITB]] . I may add this one as well tomorrow.
I may look at coming out of my final [[GDX]] and [[SPY]] hedges tomorrow as well, as they are option hedges. My only other remaining hedges besides those are [[QID]] and [[BGZ]] , which I will likely hold until I’m sure we’ve turned back to the green.
Make no mistake, I’m extremely bullish on the continuing inflation trade here. Bernanke will remain, and so too will the continuing flog of the dollar. Play that game by buying select equities and precious metal bangers.
Bless you all, and I mean that.
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Volcker is an empty suit.
A very long empty suit.
His presence, an empty threat.
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If I had an economist basketball team, I’d pick Volcker and Galbraith fer sure – partly for the locker room fistfights they’d have.
JK Galbraith?
Statist tool. Not to be taken seriously.
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6’7″ to 6’9″ – was a tall glass of water like volcker is
The Affluent Society is a bit of thin gruel, yep
I was looking everyrwhee and this popped up like nothing!
Embedded in the commodity play is DRYS as well, evidenced by the run it had up until June 2008 during the initial inflationary head fake.
I have never felt completely comfortable with the shippers, but I’ve owned DSX and some others in the past (FRT?).
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Whaddya thinking of the action in the long bonds? Trendline looks nice on (short) TLT.
TBT is a long term play for me. At least until Volker really gets appointed. 😉
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I think even a well thought out thesis will encounter some bumps in the road along to the destination.
I don’t think the government is going to just give up and say “never mind” to the game they have been running.
Continued Fuckery seems like a sure thing. If they cannot leave your garbage alone, they will mess with your money.
Agreud. The trick is to stay relatively flexible and roll with the counter punches.
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I agree that we and others will continue to destroy our currencies’ value – and I stepped back into PMs a bit on Friday. However, I would not be shocked if we went sideways to down for much of this year.
Questions/rhetorical questions to ponder:
-Is Bernanke a Republican?
-How does he feel about divided gov’t v Dem one-party rule?
-Is there is economic pain needed? If so, when does he want the pain to come?
-To what extent do our creditor countries hold the FED by the short hairs and what do their pols want?
Anyway, I don’t assume that Bernanke will cooperate on the mid-term elections – – at least not free-of-charge. And if Obama had a clue, he would have used the crises that he inherited to make useful changes – but instead, his handlers attempted to reflated bubbles. Obama has been clueless – without even having garnered political benefit for him and his party. I’ll assume Obama will continue to be clueless until the evidence supports another conclusion.
I think Obama being clueless was part of the whole recipe.
Not so sure on your other queries, but I would state that our creditors are as caught by their short hairs as we.
It’s a mutually caught short hair situation at the moment.
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Interesting that gold does not want to move below that $1075 mark, so the traders are murdering silver instead.
I smell an opportunity.
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Time for AGQ, eh?
Indeud.
Bot 600 shs this monring at $53.77 and then another 600 at $55.11 later in the day.
I hope I wasn’t too early… lol.
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Washington (CNN) — President Obama will announce in Wednesday’s State of the Union address that he’s proposing to save $250 billion by freezing all nonsecurity federal discretionary spending for three years, according to two senior administration officials.
Total 2010 Federal Budget (Wikipedia): $3.55 Trillion.
Total amount saved by the spending freeze per year as a percent of 2010 budget:
$25b/$3550b = .7%
7%
Get your math right.
Saving 7% off the budget to reduce the deficit by 250/1170 (2010 est.) ~ 20%.
What’s wrong with that?
you’re right. my bad: It spends $250 billion less over three years, not ten as I originally posted.
($250b/3 years) / $3550b = 0.0234
so, 2.3%.
Still, to call this a spending freeze is an insult. All areas not “frozen” will still be expanding in size and spending. The net overall spending over the next three years will not be less.
“Freeze”: http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/01/25/obama.spending.freeze/index.html
Budget: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_federal_budget
From the CNN article: “Under the proposal, which would need to be approved by both houses of Congress, all federal discretionary spending would be frozen at its current level of $447 billion per year. Within that parameter, however, individual federal agencies would have the power to give some programs increases, while cutting money elsewhere.”
The “spending freeze” is not decreasing the net deficit. Like the millions of jobs he’s saved so far despite rising unemployment, it’ll be billions of dollars saved despite a rising deficit.
I suppose it all depends on how much one like’s his Kool Aid (obviously, most people on this here blog despise it).
Yes, unemployment is rising but they claim to have saved jobs. If you like that Kool Aid, you’ll believe that unemployment would’ve been even higher by now.
Yes, the deficit will increase because they like to spend, spend, spend. But if you like the Kool Aid, you’ll believe that the deficit would increase even faster without this “freeze” in certain areas of spending (which does sound like an actual “freeze” – since the individual agencies have to stay within their limit – but only in the “discretionary” portions).
In the end, it’s all just more political double-speak and statistical shenanigans.
I was mostly just pointing out your math error while making one of my own (as is par-for-the-course for me).
Dr. Goldfinger, what is your time frame on that 200 target for RGLD?
Was that a real #?
If you wish to answer that in the PPT user notes section for RGLD, that works fine.
Thank you, Sir.
It’s $250b over three years, so it’s more like 2.3%.
And I’ll believe it when I see it.
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I think it will get there within the next two years, Z-man… 2012 or so.
Wow. Would be nice. Thank you, Dr. Goldfinger.
It would be, but remembah, past performance, yada yada yada, and do your own due dilligence, don’t put all your eggs in the same egg salad, etc.
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Ok, so no Devil Dog style leverage?
Yeah, no margerine on this one.
If you wanted to buy 2 year LEAPs though, you could be okay, just don’t go nuts.
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DXY touched the 200MA and sold off. Double top on the hourly chart too with a diverging MACD. I’m thinking it now rolls over at least for the short term. Wednesday could be the first big up day in PMs to stick. Most of these daily MACDs are still pointing down. I’d like to add some more SLW, RGLD and the ones you like (EGO, etc….) Should be close in the next day or so. This is a bit tricky, but the over sold levels are just huge on the miners. A bounce is coming sooner or later. 🙂
The way I look at it, the market will make you right eventually. I remember all the whining I did last year when SLW would gap up to 5 of 6 bucks and then drop back again.
I’ve learned not to be too concerned.
Like that new avatar. Duvall is the balls.
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Do you visit this guy’s blog?
http://www.thedocument.com/
I’ve been digging his take on things.
http://www.thedocument.com/stock_market_blog/2010/20100126_stock_market_swing_low.cfm
I’m not a long time mining trader…just recently got on the train and I’m kind of in pain after follow GS into his “all in” call several weeks back. (I’m not 100% in, just about 50% right now) HL, CDE, SSRI have killed me. Down 18-20% on those so far. Yea, I’m gun shy and usually a very conservative type.
You have to be careful w. the lower quality names like CDE, HL and yes, even SSRI.
The better silvers are SLW and PAAS, and to some extent, EXK.
That said, CDE and SSRI should be fine. HL, who knows? They have some really crap management.
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I added yet another 40 SLW June 11 calls today, hopefully this will be the last, at $4.10.
I also added 2k PAAS (21.65),
added 2k IAG @ 14.06
And the aforementioned 600 AGQ at $53.77 and 600 more at $55.11.
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Thanks, good to know about those three…
I’m heavy SLW, no PAAS or EXK yet, but will be adding those.
I do not visit Document’s blog, but I have seen him on Gary’s comment section.
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